I can tell you that from march the 10th (min price 289 $) till today there were more than 2.5 mil of new longs opened.
they are paying very high interest rates (more than 0.08 % a day).
so going sideways and staying below 300 is putting a lot of pressure on them.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 22435. (Read 26609593 times)
March 16, 2015, 12:58:58 PM
March 16, 2015, 12:56:38 PM
It's possible though margin cascades are hard to predict. There might not be enough selling to even get us sub $280 at this point, though we might go there again due to low volume in general. When the market leaders are bullish and want to go up, watch them shake out the market downward as many times as it takes to clean out enough supply to do it while supporting certain price levels. They have both the bankroll and patience and it is a profitable thing to do.
Those longs who are well capitalized would need sub $200 to get margin called, and that price is close to bear delusion at this point. I expect they would hold through, just as some of the well funded shorts are doing who allowed themselves to be trapped during capitulation. I expect they, on the other hand, are getting mighty nervous as their danger zone is in the $300s. Some of the bearish activity you see is likely groups of them protecting their positions--I saw this activity all the way up from the bottom--seems to work well enough until a whale with a pump bot comes along and decides to annihilate them.
Holding a long at this sort of interest rate through a ~25% decline is stupid and a terrible way to trade though. Its not so much a margin call cascade as a stop loss cascade that could be seen. If people are trading without stop losses then god help them!
I've done it. Had a losing trade that ended up over 20% in the green because I held through. Not optimal, but it worked out. I'm a position trader so I'm holding onto trades for weeks and the cost of the loan is a very small percentage of my overall profits.
I don't trade with stop losses. Whales actively gun for them, so why give them the bait?
March 16, 2015, 12:50:26 PM
It's possible though margin cascades are hard to predict. There might not be enough selling to even get us sub $280 at this point, though we might go there again due to low volume in general. When the market leaders are bullish and want to go up, watch them shake out the market downward as many times as it takes to clean out enough supply to do it while supporting certain price levels. They have both the bankroll and patience and it is a profitable thing to do.
Those longs who are well capitalized would need sub $200 to get margin called, and that price is close to bear delusion at this point. I expect they would hold through, just as some of the well funded shorts are doing who allowed themselves to be trapped during capitulation. I expect they, on the other hand, are getting mighty nervous as their danger zone is in the $300s. Some of the bearish activity you see is likely groups of them protecting their positions--I saw this activity all the way up from the bottom--seems to work well enough until a whale with a pump bot comes along and decides to annihilate them.
Holding a long at this sort of interest rate through a ~25% decline is stupid and a terrible way to trade though. Its not so much a margin call cascade as a stop loss cascade that could be seen. If people are trading without stop losses then god help them!
March 16, 2015, 12:47:17 PM
so what do you think guys, will we see $300 this week?
There's still a chance this could break down and fill in below $280, which opens the door to breaking the rising bottom trendline at $260. However this is not what I think will happen (but many chartists are calling for it).
If you're not already in now, the lower risk trade would be to go long after $300 is broken and becomes support, confirming the break.
how much room do you think there is for a cascading effect of long margin calls if it breaks down to 260ish? This is basically what I'm betting on. Majority of bids in between 255-271, after that, re assess. Otherwise join the bulls above 305 and CCMF for a moment.
It's possible though margin cascades are hard to predict. There might not be enough selling to even get us sub $280 at this point, though we might go there again due to low volume in general. When the market leaders are bullish and want to go up, watch them shake out the market downward as many times as it takes to clean out enough supply to do it while supporting certain price levels. They have both the bankroll and patience for this and it is a profitable thing to do as it fills their longs and builds retail shorts.
Those longs who are well capitalized would need sub $200 to get margin called, and that price is close to bear delusion at this point. I expect they would hold through, just as some of the well funded shorts are doing who allowed themselves to be trapped during capitulation. I expect they, on the other hand, are getting mighty nervous as their danger zone is in the $300s. Some of the bearish activity you see is likely groups of them protecting their positions--I saw this activity all the way up from the bottom--seems to work well enough until a whale with a pump bot comes along and decides to annihilate them.
March 16, 2015, 12:46:23 PM
290 by the end of last week and 290 by now.
I think it confirms we are officially sideways
I think it confirms we are officially sideways
It's not necessarily a bad thing to go sideways. Everybody expects volatility from BTC because that's what it does, but sideways maybe a sign that it's gaining some sort of stability... on the other hand it may also means that nobody wants to trade
March 16, 2015, 12:45:27 PM
290 by the end of last week and 290 by now.
I think it confirms we are officially sideways
I think it confirms we are officially sideways
.-. ¿¡ʇɐɥʍ
March 16, 2015, 12:44:17 PM
so what do you think guys, will we see $300 this week?
There's still a chance this could break down and fill in below $280, which opens the door to breaking the rising bottom trendline at $260. However this is not what I think will happen (but many chartists are calling for it).
If you're not already in now, the lower risk trade would be to go long after $300 is broken and becomes support, confirming the break.
how much room do you think there is for a cascading effect of long margin calls if it breaks down to 260ish? This is basically what I'm betting on. Majority of bids in between 255-271, after that, re assess. Otherwise join the bulls above 305 and CCMF for a moment.
There is a lot of room for a long squeeze/over 22mil in longs about 4-5 mill more than *average* . At this price its ~17k btc. Have a look at the books and make your mind up.
March 16, 2015, 12:43:25 PM
290 by the end of last week and 290 by now.
I think it confirms we are officially sideways
I think it confirms we are officially sideways
March 16, 2015, 12:21:03 PM
There's still a chance this could break down and fill in below $280, which opens the door to breaking the rising bottom trendline at $260.
What if our renminbi overlords laugh at your flimsy dollar line?Edit: And I think you are talking about a linear line. You've found the lowest and probably the least important one of all the rising bottom trend lines. If we hit it, we've already broken through all the other similar lines, so it may not offer much resistance.
March 16, 2015, 12:19:27 PM
so what do you think guys, will we see $300 this week?
There's still a chance this could break down and fill in below $280, which opens the door to breaking the rising bottom trendline at $260. However this is not what I think will happen (but many chartists are calling for it).
If you're not already in now, the lower risk trade would be to go long after $300 is broken and becomes support, confirming the break.
how much room do you think there is for a cascading effect of long margin calls if it breaks down to 260ish? This is basically what I'm betting on. Majority of bids in between 255-271, after that, re assess. Otherwise join the bulls above 305 and CCMF for a moment.
Could be right..bidside thin right now. I doubt we drop below 280's tbh..
March 16, 2015, 12:16:46 PM
so what do you think guys, will we see $300 this week?
There's still a chance this could break down and fill in below $280, which opens the door to breaking the rising bottom trendline at $260. However this is not what I think will happen (but many chartists are calling for it).
If you're not already in now, the lower risk trade would be to go long after $300 is broken and becomes support, confirming the break.
how much room do you think there is for a cascading effect of long margin calls if it breaks down to 260ish? This is basically what I'm betting on. Majority of bids in between 255-271, after that, re assess. Otherwise join the bulls above 305 and CCMF for a moment.
March 16, 2015, 12:12:01 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3s7UVY5yv7Y
Can bitcoin safe Greece??
If the Greek people begin to use bitcoin instead of Euro, Bitcoin will EXPLODE!! Another pro bull market argument... The people with Shorts on please wake up, before you get margin called out, and we all have to feed you with our spare satoshis!
Can bitcoin safe Greece??
If the Greek people begin to use bitcoin instead of Euro, Bitcoin will EXPLODE!! Another pro bull market argument... The people with Shorts on please wake up, before you get margin called out, and we all have to feed you with our spare satoshis!
March 16, 2015, 12:10:12 PM
so what do you think guys, will we see $300 this week?
There's still a chance this could break down and fill in below $280, which opens the door to breaking the rising bottom trendline at $260. However this is not what I think will happen (but many chartists are calling for it).
If you're not already in now, the lower risk trade would be to go long after $300 is broken and becomes support, confirming the break.
March 16, 2015, 12:10:10 PM
i see we are still alive and everything..
March 16, 2015, 12:09:16 PM
NLC probably banned for paedophilia references..
Long interest falling now 0.09%
Next an attack on 300.
To the guy shorting because sentiment is bullish - how would that have worked out in 2014?
Long interest falling now 0.09%
Next an attack on 300.
To the guy shorting because sentiment is bullish - how would that have worked out in 2014?
in april 2014, swimmingly... Dec 2014, even better.
you miss the point about the fact that at the peak of a bubble, the sentiment is at it's maximum. This occurs just before everyone falls off a cliff together all hugging and telling each other how great they are
my motivation to short is not just about betting against the bulls, but anyways...
The thing is you have to wait until the bullish sentiment is crazy ripe.
Otherwise you'll simply sell too soon...
Look at the 1w chart on bitstamp and point out any bubble we are experiencing. Trying to play the contrarian by betting against forum sentiment can work. But betting against positive sentiment after a 14 month bear market when the price isnt even out of the long term log down trend seems..risky.
it's very risky, but I'm putting my bet here as it will pay off more for me in the long run. My biased decision making has also sought out reinforcement elsewhere in the form of various other indicators. Please note I'm not an experienced trader
... but ultimately I think that it pays off more for the market movers if the downtrend is not over, various EW counts support this, I think that depending on how you draw your charts, we are on the upper bounds of long term trend resistance, and failing to break it so far with any force is key. A revisit to a higher low or an area that could be called a retest of the previous low would confirm an end to the trend, but on lower volume, with less force.
Also with regards to betting against the market, I don't believe we are in a bubble, I was merely observing something I read in a book today. I don't think I could call the sentiment for this recent rise "peak sentiment", but the fickleness of bitcoiners is something to be exploited and I think it's too much too soon. Tradeview is full of "long" charts and indicators pointing up, which can be read as adding to a certain euphoria, or can be read as just plain scary to be shorting.
Stop loss just above 305 so no worries
small edits...
March 16, 2015, 12:06:44 PM
BTC China is having a serious case of a triangle.
Closeup:
Closeup:
March 16, 2015, 12:00:28 PM
so what do you think guys, will we see $300 this week?
Yes
March 16, 2015, 11:59:26 AM
CCMF!!
The best is yet to come!
The best is yet to come!
March 16, 2015, 11:59:12 AM
March 16, 2015, 11:57:44 AM
Yes
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