4 - I just don't see major investment into these unregulated exchanges happening right now just because there is all this "good news" and positive spin from WSJ etc.
Good job we have Coinbase and the BIT GBTC then and Gemini on the way.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 22444. (Read 26609683 times)
March 15, 2015, 07:00:21 PM
4 - I just don't see major investment into these unregulated exchanges happening right now just because there is all this "good news" and positive spin from WSJ etc.
Good job we have Coinbase and the BIT GBTC then and Gemini on the way.
March 15, 2015, 06:59:05 PM
March 15, 2015, 06:54:10 PM
numbers...
1 - cool
2 - not sure why you are not defining the downtrend as being from the ATH and all subsequent lower highs. If we do so then it is already broken. But you are quite right the price may not be going up any time soon..
3 - we can agree to disagree on this one
4 - Certainly not upset! I dont trade with leverage. When there are players stuffing 120,000,000 dollars into stealth startups, the majority of which work/own major silicon valley firms then I would suggest you are wrong
. I think the price is heavily engineered or manipulated. But expecting the price to drop below 160 dollars from a high of 1200 seems a bit silly now. My trading is based on other people's charts and my limited experience on exchanges since April 2013
not sure what you guys were talking about, but this is really not a good basis for trading - actually it is a bad basis for everything ^^"
March 15, 2015, 06:39:35 PM
numbers...
1 - cool
2 - not sure why you are not defining the downtrend as being from the ATH and all subsequent lower highs. If we do so then it is already broken. But you are quite right the price may not be going up any time soon..
3 - we can agree to disagree on this one
4 - Certainly not upset! I dont trade with leverage. When there are players stuffing 120,000,000 dollars into stealth startups, the majority of which work/own major silicon valley firms then I would suggest you are wrong
. I think the price is heavily engineered or manipulated. But expecting the price to drop below 160 dollars from a high of 1200 seems a bit silly now. 2 - I have no idea either. My trading is based on other people's charts and my limited experience on exchanges since April 2013
... but when talking to experienced traders and after reading Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow" it's clear that I'm probably just as better or worse off in my approach than most other traders anyways...3 - Yes and no
of course it could pop up, but I don't think the current news will necessarily affect price that way, and we are missing a sudden china involvement and a gox bot to give us the crazy momentum.4 - it's so easy to read everything everyone says on here in the wrong voice in your (my) head
I just don't see major investment into these unregulated exchanges happening right now just because there is all this "good news" and positive spin from WSJ etc. As bitcoiners we are acutely aware of every item of media attention, but I don't see the effects of the recent cascade of positive developments affecting price in the way that people imagine it might, just yet. It's still early days in terms of big investment and greater adoption. I imagine you'll still only get the odd risk taker actually putting a small portion of their capital onto coinbase (still not liquid enough) or some other random slovenian or hongkong/taiwan/anon exchange... 
March 15, 2015, 06:32:59 PM
...
...EDIT: how do I make small pictures?
it wasnt real, mtgoxbots are not working at this moment ...EDIT: how do I make small pictures?
March 15, 2015, 06:05:31 PM
I dont margin trade and use obscure exchanges like bitfinex.
already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago...
LOL pwnage.
One of the many reason I have this clown on ignore.
March 15, 2015, 06:05:14 PM
good time to short.
Do it, jump on the OKCoin casino and go all in short 20x. Sure thing right?
already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago...
Surprised you still have coins to sell, been short all the way up
When you go short, don't you just borrow the coins? Shouldn't need any coins to sell.
Also, question for tarmi: don't you pay daily fee for holding an open position with your borrowed coins? After a "few days" doesn't that start to erode any profits you might make?
Lastly, don't you have to buy those coins back at some point to close your position? Why didn't you close already at 285 or lower? Are you that confident? That greedy? What is your target?
Yeah sure if you margin trade but tarmi doesn't ... apparently
March 15, 2015, 06:03:17 PM
I dont margin trade and use obscure exchanges like bitfinex.
already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago...
LOL pwnage.
March 15, 2015, 05:59:17 PM
March 15, 2015, 05:55:50 PM
great plan!
btw thanks for an extra hundred bucks!
btw thanks for an extra hundred bucks!
I thought you don't trade?
no, I said I dont margin trade and use obscure exchanges like bitfinex.
and yes, I sold a bunch of bitcoins in 266 range.
good time to short.
Do it, jump on the OKCoin casino and go all in short 20x. Sure thing right?
already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago...
Surprised you still have coins to sell, been short all the way up
When you go short, don't you just borrow the coins? Shouldn't need any coins to sell.
Also, question for tarmi: don't you pay daily fee for holding an open position with your borrowed coins? After a "few days" doesn't that start to erode any profits you might make?
Lastly, don't you have to buy those coins back at some point to close your position? Why didn't you close already at 285 or lower? Are you that confident? That greedy? What is your target?
I am not telling you my target and yes I am confident. so confident that I am ready to add more to my position if it comes to it. and yes, you are right. you dont need coins to go short at all.
I am paying very low interest on borrowed coins. 10 times less than the ones who borrowed cash.
March 15, 2015, 05:10:50 PM
...
...EDIT: how do I make small pictures?
...EDIT: how do I make small pictures?
Add "width=[size in pixels]" inside the image tag.
Code:
[img width=300]nkmnmnmnm[/img]
March 15, 2015, 05:09:44 PM
Suppose you have a 9 day moving average in a daily chart, you average over nine days of which one is today, then 4 days are past and 4 days are yet to come. So you cannot know the 9-day moving average of today until 4 days from now. Hence the 9-day moving average can only be drawn into the chart up to 4 days ago. All those nice chart tools ignore this, and put the data point on today instead of 5 days ago. You can actually see this easily in the chart, as the line clearly lags behind the un-averaged data.
Conclusion, a 9-day average lags behind 4 days, and a 5 days average lags behind 2 days. Therefor, you can't compare them meaningfully unless you shift them to the right place in time (so 4 days to the left for the 9-day average, and 2 days to the left for the 5-day average).
I looked if you can shift the moving average lines to their proper place in bitcoinwisdom, but didn't find such option, unfortunately.
That's an objection to the use of averages in TA I've heard several times, and it's valid in principle, but:
a) It assumes you are looking at it from a signal processing perspective, where using averages like this way would simply be wrong. Instead, chartists know (intuitively at least, I believe) what is going on, and accept that the m day average from days n-m to n plotted to day n is a lagging indicator, and then try to work around this inherent lag.
Do you think TA should be time invariant? I.e. should it matter if we are talking about now, two months ago, or next month? Should it matter if things develop at half or double the speed? Should it matter if things go in reverse (that the principles involved in a decent in price are basically the same as the ones involved in an ascent)?
Obviously not. Though a non-shifted MA doesn't mean you treat a descent like an ascent, no? Here's the counter question: Can you exclude (in general) that a signal that lags by n day is useless to base a market decision on? Maybe. Next question: What if a certain number of market participants make a decision based on the (mis)application of the lagging indicator? Still guaranteed that there is no exploitable pattern in there?
I thought it would obviously have to be time invariant. Doesn't TA only depend on the data in the chart? I don't know much about TA, but Wikipedia and Investopedia say that TA is based on the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This seems to implicate that if the same pattern emerges in the charts in April or June, the conclusions should be the same. Same for a market moving slow or fast. If all trades are done at half the speed, shouldn't the conclusions on the same pattern (but stretched twice as long in time) be the same? And isn't the model describing a bear trap and a bull trap essentially the same, just applied inverted?
To come to your counter question, I cannot exclude that a signal is useless (usable?) because it lags. Even more, since this signal is interpreted by humans with neural networks in their heads, they can very well learn how to interpret them without understanding them (as we do with so many things). Simply by training. One doesn't need to have an explicit model that makes sense. And when many people start acting on a certain signal (even if it's not based on a proper model and it doesn't make sense), the very fact that a significant part of the actors take that signal into account creates a self fulfilling prophecy. So yes, that may very well constitute an exploitable pattern.
March 15, 2015, 05:08:50 PM
1 - it's not my chart.
2 - my main point in posting it is that, if you are in the school of "the downtrends not over", then the upper bound of the channel in CNY terms is exactly what we have been bouncing off for the last few days of last week. There are a few in this thread that complain of chinese pied piper's no?
3 -If we play spot the pattern using this chart, assuming the downtrend is not over (which the chart demonstrates), shows that the RSI counts for something. To imagine there is anything like Nov 2013 on the horizon is a bit mental in my opinion.
4 - don't get upset if I question your position, it's not an attack, I just think players stand to gain a lot more by the downtrend not being over and I'm biased because I'm shorting.
2 - my main point in posting it is that, if you are in the school of "the downtrends not over", then the upper bound of the channel in CNY terms is exactly what we have been bouncing off for the last few days of last week. There are a few in this thread that complain of chinese pied piper's no?
3 -If we play spot the pattern using this chart, assuming the downtrend is not over (which the chart demonstrates), shows that the RSI counts for something. To imagine there is anything like Nov 2013 on the horizon is a bit mental in my opinion.
4 - don't get upset if I question your position, it's not an attack, I just think players stand to gain a lot more by the downtrend not being over and I'm biased because I'm shorting.
1 - cool
2 - not sure why you are not defining the downtrend as being from the ATH and all subsequent lower highs. If we do so then it is already broken. But you are quite right the price may not be going up any time soon..
3 - we can agree to disagree on this one
4 - Certainly not upset! I dont trade with leverage. When there are players stuffing 120,000,000 dollars into stealth startups, the majority of which work/own major silicon valley firms then I would suggest you are wrong
. I think the price is heavily engineered or manipulated. But expecting the price to drop below 160 dollars from a high of 1200 seems a bit silly now. March 15, 2015, 05:08:00 PM
...
...EDIT: how do I make small pictures?
...EDIT: how do I make small pictures?
Add "width=[size in pixels]" inside the image tag.
Code:
[img width=300]nkmnmnmnm[/img]
March 15, 2015, 05:05:12 PM
the larger ask walls on bfx vanished for the "end of the weekend pump", read into that what you will
March 15, 2015, 05:03:22 PM
You may get a chance to increase your short in the next few hours. Don't step too far away from your screen ..
my coins are eagerly waiting for bulls but they seem too weak and indecisive. coins are out there already.
so I am off to bed.
March 15, 2015, 04:59:06 PM
March 15, 2015, 04:56:14 PM
Not sure what you are trying to show with your chart. If you are suggesting the RSI cannot support any moves higher I suggest you look at Nov 2013, it has already broken out according to your charting..
Edit:
If we are playing spot the pattern then perhaps we are back in september 2013..
1 - it's not my chart.
2 - my main point in posting it is that, if you are in the school of "the downtrends not over", then the upper bound of the channel in CNY terms is exactly what we have been bouncing off for the last few days of last week. There are a few in this thread that complain of chinese pied piper's no?
3 -If we play spot the pattern using this chart, assuming the downtrend is not over (which the chart demonstrates), shows that the RSI counts for something. To imagine there is anything like Nov 2013 on the horizon is a bit mental in my opinion.
4 - don't get upset if I question your position, it's not an attack, I just think players stand to gain a lot more by the downtrend not being over and I'm biased because I'm shorting.
the only reason it was broken temporarily on bfx was that some shorts got margin called or panic cancelled... so annoying as I had a sell order at 304.1 that was missed :
Michael, couldn't let go of $2? $302 wasn't enough?
I don't sit there finger on the trigger, I placed the order in advance of course with the logic that if it didn't cross 305, it was going back down, and that logic was correct but 20 cents out!
EDIT: how do I make small pictures?
March 15, 2015, 04:46:23 PM
good time to short.
Do it, jump on the OKCoin casino and go all in short 20x. Sure thing right?
already did on bitfinex in 295 range few days ago...
Surprised you still have coins to sell, been short all the way up
When you go short, don't you just borrow the coins? Shouldn't need any coins to sell.
Also, question for tarmi: don't you pay daily fee for holding an open position with your borrowed coins? After a "few days" doesn't that start to erode any profits you might make?
Lastly, don't you have to buy those coins back at some point to close your position? Why didn't you close already at 285 or lower? Are you that confident? That greedy? What is your target?
I am not telling you my target and yes I am confident. so confident that I am ready to add more to my position if it comes to it. and yes, you are right. you dont need coins to go short at all.
I am paying very low interest on borrowed coins. 10 times less than the ones who borrowed cash.
You may get a chance to increase your short in the next few hours. Don't step too far away from your screen ..
March 15, 2015, 04:46:06 PM
I am not telling you my target and yes I am confident. so confident that I am ready to add more to my position if it comes to it.
I am paying very low interest on borrowed coins. 10 times less than the ones who borrowed cash.
Fair enough. Thanks.
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