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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 22685. (Read 26710157 times)

legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005

(Before you scream "21 million": that bitcoin limit is "guaranteed" only by  fuzzy arguments about a complicated economic game, not "by math", and could be changed if the right players agreed to it.  Moreover, any kid can duplicate the amount of bitcoins in existence by creating a hard fork of the blockchain and starting to mine it on his laptotp.  Anyone who has bitcoins will gain an equal amount of those "series B" bitcoins, accessible through the same private keys, and could trade them independently of his old bitcoins by duplicating his wallet and downloading the kids's client software. Whether those "series B" bitcoins will get a significant market value is a market(ing) question, not a technical one.  And, of course, there are the altcoins.)


You're describing a double spend attack, right?

No, I am describing a hard fork.

It does not interfere with the original chain directly, simply creates another clone, premined and "pre-transacted" to hae the same addresses, private keys, UTXOS, and everything as the original chain.  All it can do is steal value from the original bitcoins, if for some reason people prefer to spend their dollars on "series B" bitcoins rather than original ones.

What tosh. Who would spend their dollars on series B bitcoin, what scenario do you envisage where someone would be tricked into buying from a second chain.

Exactly. Who the hell will value stolfi coin?

Edit: there are hundreds upon hundreds of ALTs..but only one bitcoin!

And as everyone here knows, the topic has been discussed here ad "killing me softly with his song"-um. He puts out an argument, then draws the curtain, until a few days later, where he repeats the same thing.

legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000

(Before you scream "21 million": that bitcoin limit is "guaranteed" only by  fuzzy arguments about a complicated economic game, not "by math", and could be changed if the right players agreed to it.  Moreover, any kid can duplicate the amount of bitcoins in existence by creating a hard fork of the blockchain and starting to mine it on his laptotp.  Anyone who has bitcoins will gain an equal amount of those "series B" bitcoins, accessible through the same private keys, and could trade them independently of his old bitcoins by duplicating his wallet and downloading the kids's client software. Whether those "series B" bitcoins will get a significant market value is a market(ing) question, not a technical one.  And, of course, there are the altcoins.)


You're describing a double spend attack, right?

No, I am describing a hard fork.

It does not interfere with the original chain directly, simply creates another clone, premined and "pre-transacted" to hae the same addresses, private keys, UTXOS, and everything as the original chain.  All it can do is steal value from the original bitcoins, if for some reason people prefer to spend their dollars on "series B" bitcoins rather than original ones.

What tosh. Who would spend their dollars on series B bitcoin, what scenario do you envisage where someone would be tricked into buying from a second chain.

Exactly. Who the hell will value stolfi coin?

Edit: there are hundreds upon hundreds of ALTs..but only one bitcoin!

does stolfi actually try and successfully do that ?

btw i just sold  and price keep rising awww...
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP

(Before you scream "21 million": that bitcoin limit is "guaranteed" only by  fuzzy arguments about a complicated economic game, not "by math", and could be changed if the right players agreed to it.  Moreover, any kid can duplicate the amount of bitcoins in existence by creating a hard fork of the blockchain and starting to mine it on his laptotp.  Anyone who has bitcoins will gain an equal amount of those "series B" bitcoins, accessible through the same private keys, and could trade them independently of his old bitcoins by duplicating his wallet and downloading the kids's client software. Whether those "series B" bitcoins will get a significant market value is a market(ing) question, not a technical one.  And, of course, there are the altcoins.)


You're describing a double spend attack, right?

No, I am describing a hard fork.

It does not interfere with the original chain directly, simply creates another clone, premined and "pre-transacted" to hae the same addresses, private keys, UTXOS, and everything as the original chain.  All it can do is steal value from the original bitcoins, if for some reason people prefer to spend their dollars on "series B" bitcoins rather than original ones.

Perhaps you should tell people that it's not likely to be some kid on his laptop to do this fork but more likely to be a more sensible version of the Bitcoin "Foundation" a few years down the road.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000

(Before you scream "21 million": that bitcoin limit is "guaranteed" only by  fuzzy arguments about a complicated economic game, not "by math", and could be changed if the right players agreed to it.  Moreover, any kid can duplicate the amount of bitcoins in existence by creating a hard fork of the blockchain and starting to mine it on his laptotp.  Anyone who has bitcoins will gain an equal amount of those "series B" bitcoins, accessible through the same private keys, and could trade them independently of his old bitcoins by duplicating his wallet and downloading the kids's client software. Whether those "series B" bitcoins will get a significant market value is a market(ing) question, not a technical one.  And, of course, there are the altcoins.)


You're describing a double spend attack, right?

No, I am describing a hard fork.

It does not interfere with the original chain directly, simply creates another clone, premined and "pre-transacted" to hae the same addresses, private keys, UTXOS, and everything as the original chain.  All it can do is steal value from the original bitcoins, if for some reason people prefer to spend their dollars on "series B" bitcoins rather than original ones.

What tosh. Who would spend their dollars on series B bitcoin, what scenario do you envisage where someone would be tricked into buying from a second chain.

Exactly. Who the hell will value stolfi coin?

Edit: there are hundreds upon hundreds of ALTs..but only one bitcoin!
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
Bears getting nervous.

Price not falling!!!?!

Tarmi are you currently in or out of bitcoin? Bleating suggests you were expecting falls from 237..
 
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000

(Before you scream "21 million": that bitcoin limit is "guaranteed" only by  fuzzy arguments about a complicated economic game, not "by math", and could be changed if the right players agreed to it.  Moreover, any kid can duplicate the amount of bitcoins in existence by creating a hard fork of the blockchain and starting to mine it on his laptotp.  Anyone who has bitcoins will gain an equal amount of those "series B" bitcoins, accessible through the same private keys, and could trade them independently of his old bitcoins by duplicating his wallet and downloading the kids's client software. Whether those "series B" bitcoins will get a significant market value is a market(ing) question, not a technical one.  And, of course, there are the altcoins.)


You're describing a double spend attack, right?

No, I am describing a hard fork.

It does not interfere with the original chain directly, simply creates another clone, premined and "pre-transacted" to hae the same addresses, private keys, UTXOS, and everything as the original chain.  All it can do is steal value from the original bitcoins, if for some reason people prefer to spend their dollars on "series B" bitcoins rather than original ones.

What tosh. Who would spend their dollars on series B bitcoin, what scenario do you envisage where someone would be tricked into buying from a second chain.
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003

(Before you scream "21 million": that bitcoin limit is "guaranteed" only by  fuzzy arguments about a complicated economic game, not "by math", and could be changed if the right players agreed to it.  Moreover, any kid can duplicate the amount of bitcoins in existence by creating a hard fork of the blockchain and starting to mine it on his laptotp.  Anyone who has bitcoins will gain an equal amount of those "series B" bitcoins, accessible through the same private keys, and could trade them independently of his old bitcoins by duplicating his wallet and downloading the kids's client software. Whether those "series B" bitcoins will get a significant market value is a market(ing) question, not a technical one.  And, of course, there are the altcoins.)


You're describing a double spend attack, right?

No, I am describing a hard fork.

It does not interfere with the original chain directly, simply creates another clone, premined and "pre-transacted" to hae the same addresses, private keys, UTXOS, and everything as the original chain.  All it can do is steal value from the original bitcoins, if for some reason people prefer to spend their dollars on "series B" bitcoins rather than original ones.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
You're going on a bit of detour there, doc Smiley

I already mentioned several of your points (e.g. that mining is based on the "currently best know procedure", not the provably optimal procedure).

And I know of course you're not facetious about the (lack of) intrinsic value of bitcoins, but you probably were facetious when you were asking what their weight is...

Good point about quantum computing possibly getting around the  (Landauer) limit though. Well outside my field though, so I can only wonder if it'd simply lower the limit, or entirely remove it possibly.

It's just the kind of specious FUD that people have to resort to when the price is rising. I think that's a good indicator of reversal, where suddenly the narrative shifts to grasping at straws on bizarre misguided technical grounds that are akin to arguing "well what if somebody invents free energy?'.

It is JorgeStolfi being back to his normal trolling mode. How easy it would it be for him if he used his capacity to read just a bit, and to let the arguments presented here sink in, then either accept them or build on them.
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
Moreover, no one really knows how hard it is to compute a valid block.  The trial-and-error method used by miners is just the most efficient method that we know; but there is no proof or other evidence that there is no better way.

Would you consider the fact that nobody has ever found a collision of sha256 function an evidence? There's no mathematical proof, but there's more then enough evidence that any other method is not even on the horizon. It's not only a Bitcoin issue, if any of modern hash algorithms would be compromised the whole cryptography would be hammered.

I believe is is proved (perhaps, I haven't checked) that the output values of SHA256 span all possible 256-bit strings or at least a very large subset of them (say, 2^200 strings).  On the other hand, it is obvious that, if the inputs are 1000-bit strings, no mater how SHA256 is used there will be 2^(1000-256) = 2^744 input strings that have exactly the same hash.

Having a large output set is the very minimum requirement for a hash function.  However, even stupid functions like "take the first 256 bits of the input" will have that property.  If a function has that property, it will pass the simple collision test "generate N random input strings, compute their hashes, and look for duplicates".  That is because N must be MUCH smaller than 2^256, so the chance of catching a collision is small -- if N = 2^56 = 72 quadrillion, the chance of finding a collision (that certainly exists, if the input has more than 256 bits) is only 1 in 2^200.

SHA256 has passed much more interesting tests, like "take N random texts, make M slighlty modified copies of each, compute their hashes, and look for duplicates".  But, again, many simple functions pass this test too.  (These functions may still be good checksums, suitable to detect non-malicious changes in files; or in hash tables, where malicious inputs are not expected.)

The property that makes a function be a good cryptographic hash function is: "there is no algorithm that, given a text X, will find another text Y with the same hash as X in a viable amount of time". That property has not been proved, because there is no theory that would enable such proofs; and cannot be tested,  because it would require trying all possible algorithms, and then testing each one to see whether it works.  All that can be said is that many smart people have tried to find such an algorithm, and no one has succeeded (that we know of).
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
Likely unsustainable. I wouldn't bet on this going anywhere but down in short term (1week)
hero member
Activity: 667
Merit: 500
You're going on a bit of detour there, doc Smiley

I already mentioned several of your points (e.g. that mining is based on the "currently best know procedure", not the provably optimal procedure).

And I know of course you're not facetious about the (lack of) intrinsic value of bitcoins, but you probably were facetious when you were asking what their weight is...

Good point about quantum computing possibly getting around the  (Landauer) limit though. Well outside my field though, so I can only wonder if it'd simply lower the limit, or entirely remove it possibly.

It's just the kind of specious FUD that people have to resort to when the price is rising. I think that's a good indicator of reversal, where suddenly the narrative shifts to grasping at straws on bizarre misguided technical grounds that are akin to arguing "well what if somebody invents free energy?'.
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
wow look at the price ....

do we have a liftoff Huh
Nope, we just have another fake pump based on rumors before a major post auction dump, nothing special.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
chunky bid at finex to start the show.


update: aaaand it's gone. Show is delayed  Huh
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
wow look at the price ....

do we have a liftoff Huh

I think we have need a while longer of slow and steady rising before the market is ready for another bull run.

Happy to be wrong and have it happen sooner, though.
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
wow look at the price ....

do we have a liftoff Huh
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
bitcoin it is worth its weight in gold.
You're being facetious of course

Well, yes and no.  An immaterial currency can be issued at will; it is the ultimate "fiat money".

(Before you scream "21 million": that bitcoin limit is "guaranteed" only by  fuzzy arguments about a complicated economic game, not "by math", and could be changed if the right players agreed to it.  Moreover, any kid can duplicate the amount of bitcoins in existence by creating a hard fork of the blockchain and starting to mine it on his laptotp.  Anyone who has bitcoins will gain an equal amount of those "series B" bitcoins, accessible through the same private keys, and could trade them independently of his old bitcoins by duplicating his wallet and downloading the kids's client software. Whether those "series B" bitcoins will get a significant market value is a market(ing) question, not a technical one.  And, of course, there are the altcoins.)

Quote
We can in principle associate some minimum weight to abstract units that are the result of computation, right?

Yes, with current technology there is in theory a minimum amount of useful energy that needs to be disspated (turned into waste heat) in order to perorm any logical operation.  That energy can be expressed as mass by Einstein's equation m  = E/c^2.   For example, a 10 watt lamp in one second burns 10 joules, which is equivalent to (10 kg m^2/s^2)/(300'000'000 m/s)^2 = 0.00000000000000011 kg, or 0.1 picogram of matter, if I didn't miss some zeros.  (Quantum computing may get around this limit somehow, but it is not known whether it will ever be usable for problems like this.)

The theoretical minimum energy cost of computations is quite small, much less than the cost that can be achieved with current technology.  But even if we use the actual cost, the mass equivalent of the cost of creating 1 bitcoin will be fairly small. Anyone knows how many joules are tipically consumed today to create 1 valid block (25 BTC)?  

However, the cost of creating something in the first place is only an upper bound to its "intrinsic value".  There are examples of huge civil engineering works that cost billions to build, were never used, and cost millions to demolish -- that is, had negative value.  (The dams built by Saddam Hussein to drain the marshes in Southern Iraq may be one example.  The Iridium communications infrastructure may be another.)  The computing the nonces of orphaned blocks costs as much as computing  those of surviving blocks, but those nonces are worthless (except perhaps to cryptographers, who may have a use for them).

Another upper bound for the "intrinsic value" of something could be the cost of duplicating it.  The cost of duplicating a bar of gold is the same as creating the first one.  For a banknote, printing an extra copy is much cheaper than printing the first one because all the plates and equipment are reused.  For information, the cost of duplication (theoretical and in practice) is extremely small.  

It can be argued that duplicating information in the bitcoin system does not produce extra bitcoins.  But that is not a physical constraint, it is a property of the whole bitcoin system -- not just the protocols and the algorithms, but also of the internet, and, mainly, how people use and react to those things.  So, the allegedly valuable properties of the bitcoin system -- single spending, authentication, limited supply, irreversibility, global reach, etc. -- do not define the "intrinsic value" of a bitcoin; they contribute only to its market value.

Moreover, no one really knows how hard it is to compute a valid block.  The trial-and-error method used by miners is just the most efficient method that we know; but there is no proof or other evidence that there is no better way.  There may well exist an agorithm that finds the right nonce for a block header in a few microseconds.  Or, worse, finds a block that has the same hash of another block but a different contents, including a specific transaction that is not in the first block.  Or finds the private key for any given address.  So, the theoretical "mass cost" of computing a valid block may be orders of magnitude lower than the trial-and-error cost.

You're going on a bit of detour there, doc Smiley

I already mentioned several of your points (e.g. that mining is based on the "currently best know procedure", not the provably optimal procedure).

And I know of course you're not facetious about the (lack of) intrinsic value of bitcoins, but you probably were facetious when you were asking what their weight is...

Good point about quantum computing possibly getting around the  (Landauer) limit though. Well outside my field though, so I can only wonder if it'd simply lower the limit, or entirely remove it possibly.
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
...
Anyone knows how many joules are tipically consumed today to create 1 valid block (25 BTC)?  
...

Assuming current market price is very close to electrical energy spent on mining, and price for that is a low 10 cents / kwh, I'm getting a guesstimate of ~227 GJ.

and how many joules are consumed by one Youtube video with a million views? How many by ALL youtube videos in one day?

This raises the question what amount of energy would be wasted if Bitcoin had a similar sized userbase as youtube.

bitcoin will survive even if there are only few miner
member
Activity: 72
Merit: 10
There may well exist an algorithm that finds the right nonce for a block header in a few microseconds.
There may. And whoever finds it, is rich. The incentive could not be any clearer.

Et pourtant . . .

legendary
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1047
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