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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 22720. (Read 26715517 times)

legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
however, another milestone along the historic trajectory of bitcoin ... now we have "publicly traded" bitcoin, in the traditional sense, with all the trappings and risks that brings (like rubber stamped and ironically down to the detail that you don't actually possess the underlying asset!)

This one event signifies a new chapter beginning.

A new type of Goxxed possibilities you mean? That's a novelty, for sure!
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1077
Honey badger just does not care
Let me see if I got this right: Some other fund, not Winklevoss', was included on the exchange before the ETF?
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
What the hell's happening. Does anyone know why we are seeing a rise all of a sudden right now ?
Can't believe this Cheesy

Barry's ETF got approved.

It's not an ETF. It' s an OTC (over the counter), a penny stock. Institutional money is not allowed to trade this.

It's a fund, and will be traded on the pink sheets exchanges. Obviously not as big as news of COIN going live on the nasdaq. And no one was suggesting pension funds would be jumping in.


however, another milestone along the historic trajectory of bitcoin ... now we have "publicly traded" bitcoin, in the traditional sense, with all the trappings and risks that brings (like rubber stamped and ironically down to the detail that you don't actually possess the underlying asset!)

This one event signifies a new chapter beginning.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
^
>above $250 is pretty damn good actually, more than I expected

See how nicely things work out if you just lower your expectations?
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
$245 is about where I thought I'd draw the line yesterday between "minor retracement, upwards move has some staying power" and "we're probably going back to square one, i.e. $220" ... Holding above $250 is pretty damn good actually, more than I expected.


sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
I've been in contact with the actual Jorge Stolfi--he himself disavows any knowledge of the imposter here who spends his days arguing with kids about Bitcoin, and whose posts coincidentally occur near the end of "troll waves" where all the trolls and their sock puppets quote each other to reinforce a point.

You mean that imposter?  Ha. Don't pay attention to him.  He is actually Satoshi Nakamoto, trying to save his experiment from us trolls -- the only attack vector that bitcoin was not designed to survive.

OMG! NLC?

Everything posted here that isn't raving about BTC & NAMBLA is probably NLC.
I mean, who else doesn't want to own Bitcoin or defile underage minor children?
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
Well, the price being 252$, it means that everybody who who owns bitcoin thinks that they are worth more than 245$; but, on the other hand, everybody in the world who has some money to spare thinks that 1 BTC is not worth 255$.


You really are not much of an economist, are you ? Cheesy How does such an oversimplifying way to look at economic choice even go together with your ability to solve abstract mathematical problems?

Okay. To name just one objection to such an incredibly naive model of the market:

Misrepresentation of your actual valuation for strategic purposes.

Similar to the misrepresentation, "tactical voting", in voting theory: sometimes it is individually rational for an actor not to cast a vote according to his sincere preference.

He is basically right this time. Since bitcoins are neither produced not destroyed (by consumption), the only basis for demand is people who think it is worth more, and the only source of supply is people who think it is worth less. Historic value could for some be of importance, but should not, again since they are not consumable there is no reference. Only expected future value should matter. Just like cold and heat, where cold is just absence of heat, and darkness and light, where darkness is just absense of light, bitcoin supply is the same as absence of demand. So in case of bitcoin (and other pure money types), there is really only one parameter: The demand.

The speculation is about projecting the demand for bitcoins in the future. Those never exposed to the idea are one source of future demand.


This not correct whatsoever, because future value is discounted by time preference.

So you will have to compensate for that in your personal valuation, not?
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
Well, the price being 252$, it means that everybody who who owns bitcoin thinks that they are worth more than 245$; but, on the other hand, everybody in the world who has some money to spare thinks that 1 BTC is not worth 255$.


You really are not much of an economist, are you ? Cheesy How does such an oversimplifying way to look at economic choice even go together with your ability to solve abstract mathematical problems?

Okay. To name just one objection to such an incredibly naive model of the market:

Misrepresentation of your actual valuation for strategic purposes.

Similar to the misrepresentation, "tactical voting", in voting theory: sometimes it is individually rational for an actor not to cast a vote according to his sincere preference.

He is basically right this time. Since bitcoins are neither produced not destroyed (by consumption), the only basis for demand is people who think it is worth more, and the only source of supply is people who think it is worth less. Historic value could for some be of importance, but should not, again since they are not consumable there is no reference. Only expected future value should matter. Just like cold and heat, where cold is just absence of heat, and darkness and light, where darkness is just absense of light, bitcoin supply is the same as absence of demand. So in case of bitcoin (and other pure money types), there is really only one parameter: The demand.

The speculation is about projecting the demand for bitcoins in the future. Those never exposed to the idea are one source of future demand.


Only that my argument wasn't about people who haven't heard of it yet. I was talking about the (overly simplistic) idea that current market price is identical to everybody's sincere valuation, the "worth" of one bitcoin.

"... everybody who who owns bitcoin thinks that they are worth more than 245$; but, on the other hand, everybody in the world who has some money to spare thinks that 1 BTC is not worth 255$."

I'll even point out this goes both ways: someone planning to execute a pump & dump will be (temporarily) willing to pay a higher price than he sincerely values it at (as long as he's convinced he can get rid of the stuff at a profit, before others do), someone who's commited to build a large long-term position might not bid at market for the full amount to avoid driving up price in the process.

Your first paragraph: Neither he nor I have said that the market price is identical to everybody's sincere valuation. The point is that everybody has a different valuation, either above or below the last price.

The other paragraphs: Yeah, all kinds of reasons for what people do.
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
What the hell's happening. Does anyone know why we are seeing a rise all of a sudden right now ?
Can't believe this Cheesy

Barry's ETF got approved.

It's not an ETF. It' s an OTC (over the counter), a penny stock. Institutional money is not allowed to trade this.

It's a fund, and will be traded on the pink sheets exchanges. Obviously not as big as news of COIN going live on the nasdaq. And no one was suggesting pension funds would be jumping in.

Edit: Most importantly, this is the first time investors can gain exposure to BTC with almost any personal brokerage account.
legendary
Activity: 1554
Merit: 1014
Make Bitcoin glow with ENIAC
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
I've been in contact with the actual Jorge Stolfi--he himself disavows any knowledge of the imposter here who spends his days arguing with kids about Bitcoin, and whose posts coincidentally occur near the end of "troll waves" where all the trolls and their sock puppets quote each other to reinforce a point.

You mean that imposter?  Ha. Don't pay attention to him.  He is actually Satoshi Nakamoto, trying to save his experiment from us trolls -- the only attack vector that bitcoin was not designed to survive.
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
What the hell's happening. Does anyone know why we are seeing a rise all of a sudden right now ?
Can't believe this Cheesy

Barry's ETF got approved.

It's not an ETF. It' s an OTC (over the counter), a penny stock. Institutional money is not allowed to trade this.
hero member
Activity: 577
Merit: 500
Jesus was a (Goddamn) hippy socialist

What I would like to know is whether SMBIT will re-enable redemption, that is, whether the people with SMBIT shares can return them to SM and get the nominal value back (which is defined as the market's dollar price of 0.1 BTC).  Or whether the clients will have to look for Greater Fools, at OTCQX or through brokers, in order to get their money back.

stupid question:

 is this a kind of IPO ?

legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1116
I've been in contact with the actual Jorge Stolfi--he himself disavows any knowledge of the imposter here who spends his days arguing with kids about Bitcoin

really!

either that, or he's also trollin' IRL . . .

I genuinely cannot believe that a working professor with a fair bit of real world rep would be up to something on here, especially the sheer volume of it. But the internet can do strange things to otherwise rational people.

Well someone is lying Shocked
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1000
Are you writing a book stolfi?
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 3056
Welt Am Draht
I've been in contact with the actual Jorge Stolfi--he himself disavows any knowledge of the imposter here who spends his days arguing with kids about Bitcoin

really!

either that, or he's also trollin' IRL . . .

I genuinely cannot believe that a working professor with a fair bit of real world rep would be up to something on here, especially the sheer volume of it. But the internet can do strange things to otherwise rational people.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
I've been in contact with the actual Jorge Stolfi--he himself disavows any knowledge of the imposter here who spends his days arguing with kids about Bitcoin

really!

either that, or he's also trollin' IRL . . .

Why do you Bitcoiners have so much hatred for those more intelligent and better educated than you?  Is that some sort of a libertardian thing?

Edit VVV See? Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
forget winkletwin ETF, we now have an approved bitcoin OTC tradeable fund

http://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-investment-trust-gets-finras-ok-to-become-public-bitcoin-fund-1425242094

This story getting legs now

Indeed the price rise is probably due to this "news".  But note that it is still actually a rumor, because it is not clear what it means exactly.  So it fits the rule "buy the rumor, sell the news"  Cheesy

First, "OTC" is short for "over the counter" which means private deals (directly or through brokers) rather than on public exchanges.  Confusingly, "OTC Markets" is the stupid name of a company that runs some exchange-like services for instruments that do not qualify for the major exchanges like NYSE and NASDAQ.  The SM BIT shares (not to be confused with shares of SM BIT) will be listed on OTCQX, one of those "exchanges".  Capisce?

I could not find exactly how the trading will work.  I have seen a quote from OTC Market page saying that they cater only to brokers, not directly to "retail" investors.  Also I don't know whether OTCQX will hold shares for trading, like the bitcoin exchanges, or whether the brokers will hold the shares and OTCQX will be just an index, like the WinkIndex.

Jorge should be pleased now that the BIT investors will finally have a way to sell their shares.


I take that as being sarcasm...

What I would like to know is whether SMBIT will re-enable redemption, that is, whether the people with SMBIT shares can return them to SM and get the nominal value back (which is defined as the market's dollar price of 0.1 BTC).  Or whether the clients will have to look for Greater Fools, at OTCQX or through brokers, in order to get their money back.
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003
alan watts is all you need
What the hell's happening. Does anyone know why we are seeing a rise all of a sudden right now ?
Can't believe this Cheesy

Kanye West is calling his upcoming album So Help Me God

http://www.theverge.com/2015/3/1/8128891/kanye-west-new-album-title
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