Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 2332. (Read 26711605 times)

You are trolling me...??


You fuck



No homo




hahahahahaha

I am stacking as I type. DCA is still set for weds. at 2 x units of fiat. that will get me to 26x units of dca fiat and 16x dip buys of fiat since nov 2022

42x units of fiat .


Does not count the sha 256 gear purchased since sept 2022.

and no debt = key.

and some I bonds (just for you to talk about jjg)

Fair enough that there are different approaches.. including staying in the game is a very good outcome for any of us who have been in the game for 4 years or longer and still going fairly well and seemingly sustainable (sure I partly have thrown out the have fun staying poor for Phil specifically because it works better to say that as a kind of emphasis to someone who is not "actually poor" outside of their own abilities.. which seems to be partially the case with Phil), and not going to stop me from calling out some of Phils ongoing bullshit from the way that I see it.. and sure, maybe he is right?.. but surely I express some of my opinions in fairly forceful ways because I find some of his bullshit to be quite far out there.

By the way, I do agree with Phil every once in a while in terms of some of the angles that may have saved him in terms of NOT using much if any leverage in terms of some of his mining business angles, and surely he has given quite a few pointers that are likely good in terms of some of the ways that miners might have to weigh their considerations in expanding mining operations, so I do not criticize him in all regards.

And, sure some times there could be some ways in which our differences might not be as material and/or significant as they are being presented.. so I will concede on that too.. but still fuck some of that nonsense in which "out there" scenarios are painted as if they had any kind of reasonable or meaningful odds of happening... and I am not even opposed to mentioning out-there scenarios, but frequently Phil mentions some of them as if they were some kind of a base case scenario... and fuck his pumping of Ibonds too.. even though surely Ibonds might have their place, but they are not necessarily a good thing if someone does not already have a BTC stash and if they were to invest all o their $15k per year or whatever into IBonds and fail/refuse to buy any BTC... BTC first, from the perspective of this here cat... or at least do some personal assessing of the matter.. and also fuck that guy Phil when he was suggesting that it was good to be selling BTC below $20k and then pumping out bullshit ideas about buying IBONDs when we were in the $16k prices... and he is still doing it... If you had not noticed.

#random

OK. It took me a couple days to really grok it, but Twitter is fucked.

They just haven't gotten the memo yet.

nostr is going to change everything just like Bitcoin did.

What a time to be alive.

err seems to me the most important thing is that phil you, me and most here, is this: we are still in the game. thats the main goal. we all have btc. profit, while fun, is a bonus.

stack sats. one way or another, just get them and stack them.

Explanation

Exactamente!!!!

We know that there are people in the bitcoin space (or bitcoin adjacent space) who are quite detached from reality, but they spout out their version of "facts" and "logic" that are hardly attached to reality, even though dumb fucks (gullibles) seem to have some willingness to follow their bullshit (perhaps quite a few people live in a fantasy.. or maybe it does not take vary many.. 1% or so of dumbass retards who love to follow narcisistic people who act like they know everything - CSW -, in order to make a ruckus?).

Well like I said it is not happening any time soon even if it does I will be gone.

I don't think you'll see it. And that's not because of your age.

That's Craig S. Wright's kind of thinking... Won't happen.

Price changes do no lopsiddedly (or disproportionately) benefit one side over the other... meaning that merely because the price goes up, it does not likely disproportionately benefit the attackers over the defenders (sure much of this is theory, so it would have to get put to play to really verify the extent to which the incentives might either hold up or crumble in unexpected ways, but you filly willy are not providing any evidence to really suggest that either factually or logically that automatically the attackers are going to be benefited merely because BTC prices go up or some other matter changes in bitcoin, and surely I will grant you that the more quickly that anything changes, the more likely that it is easier to attack, but we do not even have evidence that a 5 to 25x change in price from here, in a quick manner would be enough in order to create the level of instability that you are hypothesizing as if it were a likely scenario).


Yeah.. and how did that 2021 situation go for China..

That would have been a pretty good opportunity to put a 51% attack test into practice.. but they did not do it (if they had been planning to do such?  I am not saying that I know, but it had seemed like it could have been possible that the Chinese were in a decently good place to make 51% attack in 2021, and it is going to be a wee bit harder after a couple of more years of network building and experience (seemingly largely from the mining angle of "network building")


Yes.. you have quite a bit of theoretical discussion regarding how an attack might play out.. and even regarding some potential (theoretical) set ups for an attack, and it seems to me to be a pretty expensive play.. and let's see if such a thing happens.. To me, such attacks to be carried out successfully and even sustainably in a way to keep network effects in such a way that allows an actual payoff for the attacker (sure they might want to merely kill bitcoin, but that would be expensive too) does not seem as likely as you seem to be making it out to be (maybe that's part of the reason that you have been historically failing/refusing to sufficiently and adequately stack dee cornz?)


Yes.. you have a lot of dumb fringe ideas, and I am not even suggesting that your ideas are very original.... but they surely are based on fantasy like scenarios that are in the ballpark of almost impossible to happen (if all actual relevant - and more likely - factors were to be taken into account).

Part of the reason that you are likely going to continue to have fun staying more poor than you otherwise "could have been."  

In udder wurds, no one can save you, if you are not willing to save ur lil selfie.


Pour one out 4 dee filly.

 


I am not even going to proclaim that you are retarded.

Not going to go there.. Not going to go there.

Maybe or maybe in 2056 or 2072 a frozen coin rule is done.

Any account that has not made a withdrawal in 60 years must take some coin out or it is fed back into the reward system as lost currency.

if it is 2072 and btc is 1 million dollars with 1 million coins frozen from 2009 to 2012 I could see this happening.

But I would be 115 years old to be able to see it.

Right I get that. But as I said btc could go to 100-500k and do it quickly.

As I type the possibility that the gear is in place and ready to attack is not very high.

But
2017 19.9k
2021 69.1k
2025 200k why not and at this moment how much gear is in direct control of China 🇨🇳 Russia 🇷🇺 USA 🇺🇸

governments. We dont know.

Remember the hashrate attack done in 2021

a 50% drop in mining due to a Chinese mining ban.

How about right now Chinese government direct controls 20% of all mining gear.

They could slash the hashrate by 20% on day 1 of the 14 days.

In fact there is evidence this is being tested as I type.

I will post a link.

 

so is it more likely variance or testing of a reverse hashrate attack

DO NOT POST SESC LINKS

here it is due to the bold above.




now look some more just 200 blocks later





and almost back to normal

it appears to me a huge amount of hashrate is in the hands of 1 player and that this is an example of a possible reverse hashrate attack.


the math that would allow for the network to be at 72% at block 65 then up to 96% at block 269 is very high long shot.

the simple conclusion is someone can turn as much as 33% of the network on and off at will.

as little as maybe 20%.

So simple add to this capacity  most likely China because they build most of the gear.

Then do a reverse hashrate attack when ever you please.

How would you like btc to be 500k in 2029 and the networks drops 65% of its hash on day 1 of the diff adjustment.

BTW I have seen these very deep early drops during the first 100 blocks of a new 14 day period on more than 1 occasion.

Explanation

Doesn't seem that bad to me, especially if we compare to where we were between about
September 2022 and even up until mid-January 2023.. Also if we compare it to where we were at for the vast majority of BTC history prior to December 2020, doesn't seem bad relative to those prices either.. so 2.25 years later? or might I suggest more than 2.25 years earlier.. and surely we are currently "in the money" and decently so.. and that is not even a very long time horizon in terms of seeing such decently good profits, either.. relatively speaking.

And, I am not even suggesting to take profits in order to rest on such laurels for those of us who have been in this asset class for quite a few years longer than 2.25 years and had done the vast majority of our BTC accumulation prior to 2.25 years ago... So in that regard, those of us holding BTC that had mostly been obtained more than 2.25 years ago seem to be sitting quite pretty... and surely who the fuck should realistically be thinking that it would have had been inevitable to get richie on investing into something like BTC if they had ONLY been accumulating mostly 2.25 years or less.

Another angle would be for those who started accumulating BTC starting in about mid-2022 or so, those newbies would likely be in a decently good position too.. even though the DCABTC site is showing them to potentially be under water.. but still seems good to me (this is not financial advice, but surely my opinionenings) if they had a bit of persistencies in their BTC accumulation strategies (and perhaps even aggressiveness in their BTC accumulation practices).. at least it would seem so to me, even if perhaps they would have been underwater currently.. but still able to accumulate BTC at a better price than if they had started to accumulate January 2021 until present, for example..

But hey, I am not really the kind of person to be complaining about the mere fact that any investment like bitcoin might be under water in the short to medium term, especially given its seemingly ongoing upside potential.. and surely no guarantees to even get out from under water.. but surely there could be ways to continue to be persistent in terms of investing in bitcoin and have good chances to both get out from under water and also to be able to get into the black (and stay there) in the future.. again no guaratees in regards to what to do? what to do?   

Explanation

I believe your math is roundabout correct.  But that doesn't invalidate what Antonopoulos says.

If such an attack happened, nobody would value the fork of the attackers, after they are discovered.


I don't even know if they could pull off the same attack several times after being caught.  

The Bitcoin network has a community behind it sharing the same values and that's (an intentional) part of its strength.

I'm sure our community would get together and quickly secure the network by any necessary means ...even if that meant a kind of temporary centralization or something.

But I'm just poking around in the dark.  There are some very smart people who already figured out the possibilities and also the most 'successful' objectives of an attacker as well as the necessary counter measures.


I'm sure many WOers have a shitload of knowledge and educating links to share on that rather ancient topic.



 

Do you think he is correct cause my math above is accurate.

 China would be the player to cause the attack as they build most of the gear.

No need to do this today or tomorrow but if BTC did get big say 500k a coin it could be tempting.

It kind of calls for a gear race or at least a gear decentralization of plants.

USA is to open a chip plant in NY

https://www.computerworld.com/article/3675354/micron-to-build-largest-chip-factory-in-us-history.html

Explanation

I posted it before but there lies truth in what Antonopoulos says:


Andreas Antonopoulos - 51% Bitcoin Attack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncPyMUfNyVM