Ughh don't buy into all this trolling "On Friday, December 5, by 5:00pm EST, the USMS will notify the winning bidder/bidders that their bid/bids has/have been selected."
http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/dpr-bitcoins/?m=1Meaning all those that bid will know if they won.
Meaning if i low ball bid1-i get a small chance to get discounted coins bellow market which i can dump profit $$$
2-i'd be the first one to know if my bid wasn't selected then i can front run the new and buy coins on the market. Or better yet run the syndicate so you're now risking your own money, be the first one to get the news, act on it, distribute news to your syndicates(?) let them act on it, post on tweeter that your bid wasn't selected and watch the buying frenzy profit $$$
Bottom line everyone should get a feel whether the coins were bought bellow/above market by Friday so watching the coins move from that address a week later is pretty useless
(1) is zero risk for a winner clearly, and is risk free, if intention was to arb and not hold (I am assuming you mean selling the 'about to be received' coins, not buying more ... that makes no sense)
Not seeing how (2) works for a low-ball loser. Might work for a high bid loser who thinks market will adjust to the (unknown to him) winning price or is desperate to buy. Depends on risk appetite.
But I agree with your conclusion that some participants will have possible valuable information on Friday that will likely be reflected in the price.
EDIT: Actually, unless you win them all, there is very little to discern as you will not know the range of winning bids, so unless you only intended to arb and got a few low enough to do so, or bid very high for a few lots and lost and want coins at a price they have been available for for some time (duh), anything else is pretty much guesswork, much as all of this is