UK interest rates to 4%
It may not sound like much but with most of the economy being used to near zero rates for over a decade I doubt this will work out well for the economy over the next few years.
I see two outcomes:
1. The higher interest rates will continue to slow down the economy hugely, a downturn in the housing market (which is already happening) with prices going down 30% (price effects are minimal at the moment with many people holding out but eventually things will shift). Rates will thus be cut pretty soon and possibly down back to 0.5% within 2 years. Inflation hopefully disappears and we may even see deflation.
2. People will weather the storm to a certain extent but will expect massive pay increases (we are still having many strikes in the UK). With layoffs in the tech sector especially I can't see this happening but IF salaries do increase inflation will simply not go away and in turn we would need even higher interest rates.
It will be interesting to see if further global events will cause even more problems: Russia either destroying Ukraine completely or giving up. The latter I can't see happening no matter how much the west wants that. Maybe things will escalate even further and give China ideas with Taiwan. China energy demand (due to reopening) leading to higher oil prices.
the rates act like a wealth transfer.
Here in the USA we are over 4 closer ro 4.5%
So a large fund in the USA is available to US government worker. "G fund tsp"
https://www.tsp.gov/funds-individual/g-fund/It is based on bond rates and is paying about 4%. There is about 300 billion in it . It was paying 1.2% Dec 2021.
so 2.8% is 7.4 billion a year more in interest.
from a google search :
"How much does the US have in savings accounts?
How much does the average household have in savings? While the median bank account balance is $5,300, according to the latest SCF data, the average — or mean — balance is actually much higher, at $41,600."
2.8% of 41600 = 1165 a year
So two types above are getting money moved to them here in the states.
While apple stock holders and Tesla stock holders are getting wealth taken from them.
this swing has to happen every once in a while.
go back and look at rates from 1973 to 1997 they were really high.