Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 24517. (Read 26711240 times)

...we just seem to be slipping down further, there's no sign of an upwards reversal.

In theory this 'should' be a bull market as the price has dropped.

'Dem cheap coinz'

Etc etc but......we just seem to be slipping down further, there's no sign of an upwards reversal.

This theory is too simplified, and has many flaws, thus not used by bitcoin community  

1. The formula only works when there is only one currency
If there are multiple currencies in circulation, that will become PQ=m1v1+m2v2+m3v3+... Because bitcoin is only one small currency in circulation, you can not use the formula to calculate its price since you don't know how much goods are exclusively sold for bitcoin (maybe none)

2. Not all the money has the same circulation speed
For a given amount of dollar, the V for each dollar is different, impossible to use this model to calculate anything. For example, FED has created 6x more money since 2008, but majority of those money has a velocity of 0 (hold at FED as reserve), thus removed from circulation

3. The P in the formula usually don't include capital goods (for example MBS or bitcoin), which consists of majority of today's money flow. When capital goods enter the formula, the calculation will be totally changed and the price level of daily goods will become irrelevant

For bitcoin, there is one simple method to calculate its value: The mining cost. Mining cost is the lowest possible cost to get bitcoin, it is the baseline for its valuation

Is bitcoin the mark of the beast? The permabulls make me think it's possible: anyone who does not worship the beast or its image would be killed.
Also: causes all people to receive the mark of the beast in their right hand or in their forehead.
...

I fail to see how $370 is not a great price right now

Sure, we were at $360 2 days ago but we've had retracements before we got there and it really looks like we are entering a bull market right now.

Why is nobody buying

I fail to see how $370 is not a great price right now

Sure, we were at $360 2 days ago but we've had retracements before we got there and it really looks like we are entering a bull market right now.

Why is nobody buying

In a steady-state system, the price of a monetary asset is given by the "quantity theory of money", which states that:

P x Q = M x V, where P is the price of the goods - so the price of the monetary asset is its inverse: B = 1 / P

B = 1/P = Q / (M x V)

Q is the amount of goods bought by the monetary asset, M is the amount of monetary asset in circulation, and V is the average velocity (the number of times per year that a given bitcoin is used to buy something).

V is the inverse of T, the (harmonic) average holding time of a bitcoin: the number of years a bitcoin is held as store of value.

So the "end value" in steady state of a bitcoin will ultimately depend on two things:
how much stuff is bought using bitcoin, and how long one holds one's bitcoins.

Blitz, you realise the Shroomskit account is used by (and this is an IIRC from a Shroomskit post months back) four different people (shared house? company) -- which explains the lack of consistency and distinct personality changes in posts every few days/hours.  And none of them give a fuck about what the others post.

So, keep posting this is a bit like posting Parashat ha-Shavua to prove the Pope is Catholic. Save your time/bandwidth.

Yea, Nov 9th to Nov 15 looks like a Alt coin pump and dump.   

Looks like a mini bubble of december 2013 imo

One has to use consistent quantities Q, V, M and P of course.

So in your example, if you include the car in Q, then you have to include the money transfer in V.   Of course, if two people exchange something, you might think that that doesn't influence anything.  That would be correct if they were going to exchange, no matter what happens.  If I'm going to exchange my car with my father, who gives me money he has under his matrass instead, then this might not influence the price of cars on the car market.
However, that is not the case in general.
I will make a decision to buy a car, or to buy something else, or to hold my money, based upon several criteria, like the price of the car, my projections of getting money in the future and so on.  And it are these decisions which determine demand and offer, and settle prices.  If I think I will get money next month, I might consider buying a car.   If I think I will not get much money next month, I might reconsider buying that car.  The person supposed to give me some money next month (my employer) will have to get that money from somewhere.  Maybe by selling goods.  The price he will get from his goods will depend on how much money people are willing to give.  And so on.

So, exchanges, or better, the arbitration between different possible exchanges (or not), determine offer and demand, and hence price.  So they are not "neutral to price" except if there is no choice and they are going to happen no matter what.

15 min MACD will cause a reversal in 9 mins.  

and anyone that thinks the 15 min MACD is worthless, think again  

15 min MACD will cause a reversal in 9 mins. 

and anyone that thinks the 15 min MACD is worthless, think again