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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 24546. (Read 26712305 times)

hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
Whatever the cause, this 3-day rally and crash generated trades totaling over 1 million BTC at OKCoin, several million BTC overall.  The exchanges must have collected several million dollars in fees and interest, and arbitragers (possibly the exchanges themselves) must have made many millions too.  

Is that with or without counting all trades twice?
http://www.coindesk.com/asian-exchanges-adopt-controversial-counting-method-futures-trades/

In that paragraph I was not including the futures' markets like BitVC and 796.com (which, IIUC, are the only ones doing double-counting).  But the volumes during those two days were huge either way.
legendary
Activity: 1554
Merit: 1014
Make Bitcoin glow with ENIAC
The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.

It has one reason. Something which is new to Bitcoin since this year: Dumpers who do everything in their power to take the price down. Every single time.
We're gonna have a real hard time going up again.
I just don't understand what caused this behaviour. They just refuse to let the price go up. 

It's absolutely crazy.

If Bitcoin is going to reach its economic potential it needs to be resistant to these manipulation attempts. In that sense the problem lies more with the immaturity of Bitcoin rather than that the world is filled with donkey holes. I am sort of surprised though at the lack of help from "early" early adopter evangelists to stabilize the currency.
legendary
Activity: 4018
Merit: 1250
Owner at AltQuick.com
Whatever the cause, this 3-day rally and crash generated trades totaling over 1 million BTC at OKCoin, several million BTC overall.  The exchanges must have collected several million dollars in fees and interest, and arbitragers (possibly the exchanges themselves) must have made many millions too.  

Is that with or without counting all trades twice?
http://www.coindesk.com/asian-exchanges-adopt-controversial-counting-method-futures-trades/

They offer 20x margin, so every 1 coin you have... you can trade 20.

Fucking sickkkkkkkkkkk

I'm up 2btc off a 1btc deposit this evening Tongue prob lose it all, but I'm having a good time! Wink

newbie
Activity: 21
Merit: 0
Whatever the cause, this 3-day rally and crash generated trades totaling over 1 million BTC at OKCoin, several million BTC overall.  The exchanges must have collected several million dollars in fees and interest, and arbitragers (possibly the exchanges themselves) must have made many millions too.  

Is that with or without counting all trades twice?
http://www.coindesk.com/asian-exchanges-adopt-controversial-counting-method-futures-trades/
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
volume is at historical highs in every exchange
Say what?? Historical highs for last 24 hrs maybe.

Volume at OKcoin  was 429 kBTC on 2014-11-12, 609 kBTC on 2014-11-13.  The previous high was 286 kBTC on 2014-03-05; typical volume for several months until 2014-10-03 (start of last recovery) was ~50 kBTC/day, and 110 kBTC/day in the few weeks until 2014-11-11.

The numbers at BTC-China on those two days were 371 kBTC and 508 kBTC.  The previous high was 132 kBTC on 2013-12-07.  Typical recent volumes were ~7 kBTC/day until 2014-08-13 (when they removed the trading fees?), then growing steadily to 90 kBTC/day by 2014-11-11.

The numbers at Huobi were more modest, 211 kBTC and 232 kBTC, against a previous high of 352 kBTC on 2014-02-25.  Typical volumes were ~35 kBTC/day before 2014-10-03 and ~90 kBTC/day during the last recovery.

Bitcoin futures at BitVC (the international branch of Huobi) and "796" were also huge on those two days, on the order of 1 million BTC/day.  

I have not looked at the other big Chinese exchanges that are not listed at BitcoinWisdom.

My best guess at what happened is still that statement by the OKcoin tech guy, that "a three billion euro hedge fund is going to be trading on our platform".  Bitcoin news sites and many traders interpreted that as "the fund will start trading bitcoin", but there was no confirmation, and many were skeptical.  To me, the words "on our platform" (rather than "at our exchange") mean that they will be using OKcoin's software and/or servers to trade their shares, not bitcoin.  That would be great for OKcoin but irrelevant to bitcoin.  If this interpretation is correct, it could explain why the price crashed right after the rally, and is now returning to the pre-rally levels.

Whatever the cause, this 3-day rally and crash generated trades totaling over 1 million BTC at OKCoin, several million BTC overall.  The exchanges must have collected several million dollars in fees and interest, and arbitragers (possibly the exchanges themselves) must have made many millions too.  

If the "hedge fund" explanation is correct,  it may have been the most profitable misunderstanding in the history of bitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
Quote
PaymentsSourceKim Kardashian's Lessons for the 'Bitcoin Card' IndustryPaymentsSourceKim Kardashian may be an overexposed reality star, but she's also a tech entrepreneur with a short-lived past in the payments industry. And several companies in the Bitcoin space are repeating her biggest mistake by offering a plastic payment card....

http://news.bitcoinial.com/news/kim-kardashians-lessons-for-the-bitcoin-card-industry-paymentssource

Damn... ALL THIS and brains too!

Mehehe they should put more plastic elsewhere.. Grin
legendary
Activity: 876
Merit: 1000
Quote
PaymentsSourceKim Kardashian's Lessons for the 'Bitcoin Card' IndustryPaymentsSourceKim Kardashian may be an overexposed reality star, but she's also a tech entrepreneur with a short-lived past in the payments industry. And several companies in the Bitcoin space are repeating her biggest mistake by offering a plastic payment card....

http://news.bitcoinial.com/news/kim-kardashians-lessons-for-the-bitcoin-card-industry-paymentssource

Damn... ALL THIS and brains too!

A good example of an bitcoin "tech entrepreneur". Just like some people here consider themselves as "tech entrepreneurs", after they figured out on how to buy coins from an exchange, and then sit on their coins without doing much else. Some miners also consider them as "tech industrialists", after they order mining equipment and plug it in Smiley

These kinds of news can have importance to BTC's price though. What BTC currently needs is dumb money from loads and loads of people. Meaningless celebrities can actually tune BTC into this channel. The chances of smart money entering BTC is very small, but one should never underestimate the power of stupidity.
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
Quote
PaymentsSourceKim Kardashian's Lessons for the 'Bitcoin Card' IndustryPaymentsSourceKim Kardashian may be an overexposed reality star, but she's also a tech entrepreneur with a short-lived past in the payments industry. And several companies in the Bitcoin space are repeating her biggest mistake by offering a plastic payment card....

http://news.bitcoinial.com/news/kim-kardashians-lessons-for-the-bitcoin-card-industry-paymentssource

Damn... ALL THIS and brains too!
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1077
Honey badger just does not care
The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.

It has one reason. Something which is new to Bitcoin since this year: Dumpers who do everything in their power to take the price down. Every single time.
We're gonna have a real hard time going up again.
I just don't understand what caused this behaviour. They just refuse to let the price go up.  

It's absolutely crazy.

You are constantly whining like a child which can not understand why do the grownups do what they do. Problem is you are stuck in the fiat logic, counting your gains/loses in fiat instead of BTC. Try to finally understand that if you had 100 BTC each worth US$ 1000 each, and you now have 110 BTC each worth 400 BTC, you have not lost 56%, you gained 10%. Try to dig that into your thick head, the current price is irrelevant, it only matters how much BTC you will have when the day comes you wouldn't have to exchange them for fiat at all. The most straightforward way for smart people to gain more BTC trading is to push the price down selling as much as they can and buy more BTC when the price hits the bottom of the dump. Not everyone can trade with leverage on Bitfinex, most people trade on all other exchanges where there is no leveraged margin trading, so every they of price rising is their day lost, and every day price falling can be a big gain for them. I don't know how to put it more simpler, please try to finally understand total non-importance of short term price drops.

I love the smell of "welcome to ignore" in the morning!!

Ignore me or not, I just can't stand any more ShroomsKit's jealousy for other people making money on dumps. All he wants is a day to dump all his BTC to his fiat bank account, and he is calling other people short-sighted, imagine that!
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Dumb broad
The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.

It has one reason. Something which is new to Bitcoin since this year: Dumpers who do everything in their power to take the price down. Every single time.
We're gonna have a real hard time going up again.
I just don't understand what caused this behaviour. They just refuse to let the price go up. 

It's absolutely crazy.

You are constantly whining like a child which can not understand why do the grownups do what they do. Problem is you are stuck in the fiat logic, counting your gains/loses in fiat instead of BTC. Try to finally understand that if you had 100 BTC each worth US$ 1000 each, and you now have 110 BTC each worth 400 BTC, you have not lost 56%, you gained 10%. Try to dig that into your thick head, the current price is irrelevant, it only matters how much BTC you will have when the day comes you wouldn't have to exchange them for fiat at all. The most straightforward way for smart people to gain more BTC trading is to push the price down selling as much as they can and buy more BTC when the price hits the bottom of the dump. Not everyone can trade with leverage on Bitfinex, most people trade on all other exchanges where there is no leveraged margin trading, so every they of price rising is their day lost, and every day price falling can be a big gain for them. I don't know how to put it more simpler, please try to finally understand total non-importance of short term price drops.

I love the smell of "welcome to ignore" in the morning!!
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1077
Honey badger just does not care
The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.

It has one reason. Something which is new to Bitcoin since this year: Dumpers who do everything in their power to take the price down. Every single time.
We're gonna have a real hard time going up again.
I just don't understand what caused this behaviour. They just refuse to let the price go up. 

It's absolutely crazy.

You are constantly whining like a child which can not understand why do the grownups do what they do. Problem is you are stuck in the fiat logic, counting your gains/loses in fiat instead of BTC. Try to finally understand that if you had 100 BTC each worth US$ 1000 each, and you now have 110 BTC each worth 400 BTC, you have not lost 56%, you gained 10%. Try to dig that into your thick head, the current price is irrelevant, it only matters how much BTC you will have when the day comes you wouldn't have to exchange them for fiat at all. The most straightforward way for smart people to gain more BTC trading is to push the price down selling as much as they can and buy more BTC when the price hits the bottom of the dump. Not everyone can trade with leverage on Bitfinex, most people trade on all other exchanges where there is no leveraged margin trading, so every they of price rising is their day lost, and every day price falling can be a big gain for them. I don't know how to put it more simpler, please try to finally understand total non-importance of short term price drops.
newbie
Activity: 21
Merit: 0
Thank you aspa! Your feedback helped me immensely. Now I know a little bit more how much I don't know Smiley
Then here's some more food..
Read up on patterns and their link to behavior, e.g., here:
https://www.credit-suisse.com/pwp/pb/pb_research/technical_tutorial_de.pdf

Candle sticks themselves are fun too. Read more here on them too! E.g., here:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_candlesticks
and
http://www.fxkeys.com/category/candlesticks/

Next step is to actually trade on them instead of only analyse them.. Most people only start to get healthy caution after losing a lot of money because they still match patterns to their emotions. Feeling happy? You'll see that great bullish pattern. Took a bearish position? Confirmation bias will lead you to plenty of bearish patterns and indicators..
(Not sure if I'm there yet. I was born a bull I guess. But a more happy bull when in bitcoins then in oil, that's for sure Smiley)
full member
Activity: 306
Merit: 100
The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.

It has one reason. Something which is new to Bitcoin since this year: Dumpers who do everything in their power to take the price down. Every single time.
We're gonna have a real hard time going up again.
I just don't understand what caused this behaviour. They just refuse to let the price go up. 

It's absolutely crazy.

Only thing I can think of is, lower prices with same price-swings means more % increase.
When the price is 2000, a $100 dollar price swing means a lot less than it does now.

It's hilarious how most traders in this thread justify all this behavior.
Claiming how all this dumping is natural and necessary, they should try a politicians job, they'd be good at it..
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
The price has been recently taking massive swings. It has gone from 320 to over 400, and back down, 2 times. I am not sure what to understand from it.

It has one reason. Something which is new to Bitcoin since this year: Dumpers who do everything in their power to take the price down. Every single time.
We're gonna have a real hard time going up again.
I just don't understand what caused this behaviour. They just refuse to let the price go up. 

It's absolutely crazy.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
playing pasta and eating mandolinos
volume is at historical highs in every exchange

Say what?? Historical highs for last 24 hrs maybe.

hero member
Activity: 658
Merit: 503
Monero Core Team
Hi,

My very first TA, voluntarily simple. I'm not a big fan of TA but I wanted to give a try, so be gentle with a newcomer in TA.
Basically, I consider it is possible for BTC to continue up once at $370 - with probably some overcorrection going first, so that a buy at $360 could make it.
TA. I'd appreciate you tell me why you think it is plausible or what is lacking in it, for education.

Thanks.



Hi!
Not sure you should do TA on a retrace. What does it mean: where does it give resistance, what trend does it uncover?
Also, I don't see the support in the bottom line. You could try drawing one from that 316 bottom, consider your starting point as a failed downward breakout, and keep the second support in your line. But I think it's weak support, with no volume behind the bottoms.
Have fun!:)
Thank you aspa! Your feedback helped me immensely. Now I know a little bit more how much I don't know Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
volume is at historical highs in every exchange

Say what?? Historical highs for last 24 hrs maybe.
legendary
Activity: 876
Merit: 1000
Willy2.0 was beaten down by the nervous miners who don't want to ride this train any longer.
But I still think that the next couple of weeks could be interesting for those who trade. I think that BTC can go to 800$ tops, because the amount of coins held by miners, who have worked with a loss and accumulated a very large pile over these months. I highly doubt that there will be a strong enough buying interest to push through this heavy pile. My prediction is that BTC will experience an avalanche like never seen before in the near future, when the market realizes that it can't sustain the heavy cost of mining.
Anyway, I'm glad that someone tried to stimulate the market, because it made trading BTC fun again. In the longer timeframe, my aim is to accumulate PPC instead.

What great humor that can be provide through this thread............ PPC... good luck with that..  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

This isn't humor. Thanks though.


I do believe that you are on to something regarding your choice of an approximate $800 price point for your predicted tops.


I do NOT agree with your prediction because it is too bearish; however, I agree with you that there is likely going to be up and down movement of BTC prices (in other words plenty of built in BTC dumps) until prices return to around $800-ish.  I kept suggesting that the price point will be around $850 or so when that threshold is passed, the Viola.. We are inevitably on to a new ATH.

However, my thinking on this subject seems to have evolved a little bit, especially giving the recent and long bearish and extent of bearishness of the BTC market in the last year.  Accordingly, the threshold price could be lower than my previous $850-ish prediction and the rocket/train may take off at a lower price point - maybe into the lower $700s?  

Anyhow, once the rocket shoots BTC prices past the previous ATH, BTC prices will be pushed into the $3k to $13k range... and surely, I am engaged in a considerable amount of speculation regarding this point - but my speculation range relates to my understanding of adoption and developments around BTC and also my view that BTC prices have been artificially manipulated down for quite a bit of the last year and more so in the last 6 months.  In that regard, those who have been manipulating BTC prices downward, and/or allowing for the downward manipulation of BTC prices have been accumulating BTC, and at some point, they are going to want to pump BTC prices up to as high of a price as they can pump it (which will be the $3k to $13k range in the next cycle).  There will be upward manipulation and hype and onboarding of new money and various aspects of the masses... and some of the extent of the new onboarding of new money is a bit uncertain to know and a bit uncertain to know how much money is or could be waiting on the sidelines to jump  on board.. but there are a lot more avenues (now) to get into and to get out of BTC (as compared with the previous bubbles).






I consider my opinion, that BTC will touch 800 again, rather optimistic.
To me, it all boils down to ETF. Bitcoin mining is too expensive, and the pile of coins with high production cost, that are created with the sole purpose to be sold, is getting too heavy for the degenerate gamblers and their mortgages. Willy2.0 can only function if enough fiat will be left on exchanges. If people will want to withdraw their fiat, then willy will be goxed rather sooner then later. And industrial mining has risen the need for fiat to exit the exchanges.
My opinion about ETF is that it won't go through. There are too many unanswered questions that are critical. Like the criminal past of bitcoin and the ownership of coin. How can one prove that the majority of bitcoins aren't held by criminals who earned it through illegal activities, when bitcoin was only used as a tool for the black market? And the answer is that you can't prove it.
The only way that ETF will go though, is if the Winklevii will bribe the right people for it to go through. But I see the Winklevoss twins as great rowers and that's where their competence ends. To me, they're bitcoin salemen who believe their own BS. So, I don't expect them to be very clever while executing their plan.

My bet is on coins that are most practical in a financial perspective. I consider NuBits as a practical coin, because it actually has a mechanism to offer stability. And stability is the most important thing that determines the quality of an currency. Because I can't win by speculating on a stable coin, I have to speculate on PPC, that's value is tied to the success of NuBits.

I would rather not dive into a long dialogue with you. For the most part of 2014, I have told that I can't see anything solid that would cause bitcoin unit value to rise without dropping more after. You have often replied to my speculations with long and emotional walls of text, that don't have much substance. This is just tiresome, so if you excuse me, then I would rather not continue our conversation beyond this post.
newbie
Activity: 21
Merit: 0
Hi,

My very first TA, voluntarily simple. I'm not a big fan of TA but I wanted to give a try, so be gentle with a newcomer in TA.
Basically, I consider it is possible for BTC to continue up once at $370 - with probably some overcorrection going first, so that a buy at $360 could make it.
TA. I'd appreciate you tell me why you think it is plausible or what is lacking in it, for education.

Thanks.

https://i.imgur.com/Un6kt3M.png

Hi!
Not sure you should do TA on a retrace. What does it mean: where does it give resistance, what trend does it uncover?
Also, I don't see the support in the bottom line. You could try drawing one from that 316 bottom, consider your starting point as a failed downward breakout, and keep the second support in your line. But I think it's weak support, with no volume behind the bottoms.
Have fun!:)
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
Smaller bubbles, like this one, means faster correction to a more realistic conservative price. Which is more sound. Maybe this is the future, may be we will be spared from the mtgox-like megabubbles.
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