This isn't humor. Thanks though.
I do believe that you are on to something regarding your choice of an approximate $800 price point for your predicted tops.
I do NOT agree with your prediction because it is too bearish; however, I agree with you that there is likely going to be up and down movement of BTC prices (in other words plenty of built in BTC dumps) until prices return to around $800-ish. I kept suggesting that the price point will be around $850 or so when that threshold is passed, the Viola.. We are inevitably on to a new ATH.
However, my thinking on this subject seems to have evolved a little bit, especially giving the recent and long bearish and extent of bearishness of the BTC market in the last year. Accordingly, the threshold price could be lower than my previous $850-ish prediction and the rocket/train may take off at a lower price point - maybe into the lower $700s?
Anyhow, once the rocket shoots BTC prices past the previous ATH, BTC prices will be pushed into the $3k to $13k range... and surely, I am engaged in a considerable amount of speculation regarding this point - but my speculation range relates to my understanding of adoption and developments around BTC and also my view that BTC prices have been artificially manipulated down for quite a bit of the last year and more so in the last 6 months. In that regard, those who have been manipulating BTC prices downward, and/or allowing for the downward manipulation of BTC prices have been accumulating BTC, and at some point, they are going to want to pump BTC prices up to as high of a price as they can pump it (which will be the $3k to $13k range in the next cycle). There will be upward manipulation and hype and onboarding of new money and various aspects of the masses... and some of the extent of the new onboarding of new money is a bit uncertain to know and a bit uncertain to know how much money is or could be waiting on the sidelines to jump on board.. but there are a lot more avenues (now) to get into and to get out of BTC (as compared with the previous bubbles).
I consider my opinion, that BTC will touch 800 again, rather optimistic.
To me, it all boils down to ETF. Bitcoin mining is too expensive, and the pile of coins with high production cost, that are created with the sole purpose to be sold, is getting too heavy for the degenerate gamblers and their mortgages. Willy2.0 can only function if enough fiat will be left on exchanges. If people will want to withdraw their fiat, then willy will be goxed rather sooner then later. And industrial mining has risen the need for fiat to exit the exchanges.
My opinion about ETF is that it won't go through. There are too many unanswered questions that are critical. Like the criminal past of bitcoin and the ownership of coin. How can one prove that the majority of bitcoins aren't held by criminals who earned it through illegal activities, when bitcoin was only used as a tool for the black market? And the answer is that you can't prove it.
The only way that ETF will go though, is if the Winklevii will bribe the right people for it to go through. But I see the Winklevoss twins as great rowers and that's where their competence ends. To me, they're bitcoin salemen who believe their own BS. So, I don't expect them to be very clever while executing their plan.
My bet is on coins that are most practical in a financial perspective. I consider NuBits as a practical coin, because it actually has a mechanism to offer stability. And stability is the most important thing that determines the quality of an currency. Because I can't win by speculating on a stable coin, I have to speculate on PPC, that's value is tied to the success of NuBits.
I would rather not dive into a long dialogue with you. For the most part of 2014, I have told that I can't see anything solid that would cause bitcoin unit value to rise without dropping more after. You have often replied to my speculations with long and emotional walls of text, that don't have much substance. This is just tiresome, so if you excuse me, then I would rather not continue our conversation beyond this post.
