Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 24952. (Read 26711605 times)

We need that gif of bitcoin crashing sideways

Explanation

no time to explain! everyone put 500$ on the front lines lets see what happens. 

Explanation

I think it would become ineffective.  If you know your 'opponents' strategy in advance, you can always frontrun them.

Thanks Walsoraj, I'll look into it, although it's not an easy read.

I doubt that it will become ineffective if large traders implement it, I believe it should speed up the market by increasing volume.

If everyone use the same indicators to buy or sell, then the prices will rise or fall when we see the indicators.

It is kind of circular

Without china stamp would be at 420$ right now 

Probably. The MIT paper is linked in the article: http://arxiv-web3.library.cornell.edu/pdf/1410.1231v1.pdf

Too mathy for me.  

Thanks! 

But, of course, now big traders will immediately implement their algorithm, and that will make it ineffective. 

Explanation

Comments about the plots per hour:

The first pair of plots (USD volume per hour) show a maximum of tradeing volume
around 15:00 UTC (09:00 Central US time,  23:00 China time)
and a minimum  around 03:00 UTC (21:00  Central US time, 11:00 China time).  This may indicate that
most of the volume at Bitstamp is due to European traders, or perhaps to a mix of American traders
and arbitragers with China.  Hard to tell.

The shape of the USD volume plots is the same for Jan-Apr and May-Sep, but the latter has been
only 200 k$/hour while the former was about 450 k$/hour.  Given the overal price drop over the
period, it seems that the BTC volume has changed little.

The second set of plots seems to say that the average price change is nearly indepependent of the hour of
day.  The ups and down seem to be just artifacts of the relatively small sample (273 days).  That is, there
are no "bullish hours" not "bearish hours".

The third set of plots (RMS price change) has a minimum around 19:00 UTC, which is  China slumber time.
This is consistent with the claim that the price changes have been mostly defined by the Chinese
exchanges.

However, that effect is quite clear only on the first four months Jan--Apr,
while from May--Sep the volatility seems to be much smaller and nearly independent of
the hour of day.  This could mean that China is no longer defining the price --- but then,
neither is the West.  Perhaps the big traders who define the price, in China or in the West,
now use autonomous robots that work 24 hours a day.  Maybe.

Jorge, the following might be of interest to you:

https://newsoffice.mit.edu/2014/mit-computer-scientists-can-predict-price-bitcoin

http://venturebeat.com/2014/10/21/want-to-know-when-to-sell-bitcoins-mit-researchers-can-predict-prices/

Greend side bigger and bigger

We only need a small shark to bit it, and it will launch

Some plots that may be interesting, or not.

The following plots show the trade volume and the price variation for Bitstamp (BSTP) as a function of the hour of day (UTC).  The plots on the left show these quantities averaged over the last nine complete months, Jan--Sep 2014.  The plots on the right show the averages computed separately for the first 4 months Jan-Apr (red) and the next 5 months May--Sep (blue).  (Click on images for larger versions.)

The first set, below, shows the average USD trade volume around each hour.  For example, the dot on the hour marked "6" is the USD volume V traded per hour from 05:00 to 07:00 UTC, averaged over all days of the period in question (273 days on the left, 120 and 153 days on the right) with no weighting:

 

The second set, below, shows the average change in price at each hour.  For example, the dot on the hour marked "6" shows the result of taking the logs Y0 and Y1 of the weighted mean prices P0 from 05:00 to 06:00 UTC and P1 from 06:00 to 07:00 UTC, computing the difference D = Y1 - Y0, averaging D weighted by V over the days in question, and taking the anti-log.   The ordinate "0.993" for that dot means that, on average over that period, the price dropped 0.7% between 05:00 and 07:00 UTC.  Note that, on these plots, a large price increase in one day will tend to cancel a large price drop at the same hour on some other day.

 

The third set, below, shows the root-mean-square change in price at each hour.  For example, the dot on the hour marked "6" shows the result of taking the logs Y0 and Y1 of the weighted mean prices P0 from 05:00 to 06:00 UTC and P1 from 06:00 to 07:00 UTC, computing the difference D = Y1 - Y0, averaging the square D² weighted by V over the days in question, and taking the square root and then the anti-log.  The ordinate "1.029" for that dot means that, on average over that period, the price changed by 2.9%, up or down, between 05:00 and 07:00 UTC.  Note that, on these plots, changes in opposite directions (at the same hour on different days) are added, rather than cancelling out.

 

I hope the plots are correct.  In any case here are the essentials:

Raw data (Bitstamp's volume and price data, 1 hour intervals, 2014-01-01 to 2014-09-30)

Averaging script (gawk)

+1000

no way - the rest of the world is moving forwards, including the rest of the USA, and if the bitlicense ends up being bothersome many will simply avoid operating in New York State, or skip reporting to the IRS in general.

hard not to be bullish when you look at the bitcoin environment only ~12 months ago when it was at $100. A 4x growth in technicals seems like a bare minimum to me.

BitLicense is weighing on BTC into December, like a foot on a bean sprout.  

If Lawsky gets what he wants in its current form, we could easily be back in the 200's.  

This is not a brainwallet though.

jaberwock, what did you mean by that anyway?

Explanation