Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 2496. (Read 26710888 times)

Explanation

Yes, yes, I hear ya.

Been telling myself to worry less about politics and other things I can't change anyway and spend more time on my creative hobbies.

Explanation

There is an exponential aspect to doubling.

In regards to bitcoin specifically, I would suggest anywhere between 1% and 25% for someone who is a responsible grownup.. so yeah, maybe banks have to work their lil selfies up towards the higher end of the range... .. but if they are actually contemplating shitcoins or "crypto" then fuck that nonsense, I am not even sure if 1% would be tolerable for that.. maybe 0.25% at most?... or maybe up to 1% of the bitcoin amount.


What you are describing doesn't make me too excited... but I do get excited about various BTC accumulation strategies that relate to attempts to long term invest into BTC.. that can evolve into maintenance and or liquidation strategies, but to me it sounds like you are in the habit of some form of gambling.. which call me a fud dud, but I do not get too excited in engaging in selling strategies that are used to accumulate more bitcoin, unless you have already reached a considerable level of profits.. so that may well not really be having a sell to accumulate more component, but instead a sell to insure against some downside risk.. and really not expecting to profit in great ways, even though if you follow my system long enough it does seem to have pretty high likelihoods of being profitable...

... and I am not even sure if I give too many shits about profitability measurements, especially in the short term.. but for me it provides a kinds of psychological and financial balancing that tends to be comfortable for me...which seems to be pretty profitable in terms of long term tendencies and that is likely because bitcoin has been profitable long term and likely these kinds of considerations would be applicable to some others as well,.... perhaps? perhaps? .. even if they may well not know it.. not that I am trying to sell anything or convince anyone to follow in my ways .. peeps can do what the fuck they want, and peeps should be employing their own due diligence and discretion within their own judgement of their circumstances, even though I have been sharing my ideas for free in this thread for almost 9 years... and sometimes they are not very smart ideas, either.. so up to uie poo-ie if you might find some value in my posts.. oh yeah and another thing is that I find value in my own posts.. so there is that angle too..  my motivations to post are not necessarily benevolent in their ways of getting me to sit down and tap out some word-salads.


I would hate to rely too much on that kind of a seemingly random indicator.

Explanation

Straight 8 green weekly candles in Oct-Nov 2013 (from $143 to about $1200).
Now, THAT was a pump (%-wise).
Of course, with btc at about $400 bil mcap, I don't expect 700% in a few weeks  

price has increased 12 days in a row


https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1614782378416775169


every time these streaks were followed by a massive bullrun to a new ATH within the next half a year...  let's see let's see  

Explanation

Traders.

Bears.

People who don't give too many fucks about price.

Another thing relates to specifics, no?  If someone has 1,000 BTC, he could sell something in the ballpark of 1 BTC and not give any shits..   similarly someone with 1 BTC could sell 100,000 satoshis and not give too many shits, so maybe it is a matter of degree.. too.. but hey maybe we have different ideas about what might be considered insane?

By the way, I am pretty sure that there are at least a couple of resistance points between current price and $25k, so you are correct that getting there might contribute towards a certain level of bullishness; however, historically, I have frequently gotten nervous when the BTC price goes up too quickly in terms of whether it will keep going up.. and we could all of a sudden end up having a 2 weeks to 2 month pause in the upward price movement.. and many times those pauses end up resulting in decent amounts of retracement.. including that the whole UPPity that had been witnessed could end up transitioning into DOWNity.. which surely I doubt that we could even have confidence about being out of our bear market, yet.

 

I think that if we go towards anywhere between $30k and $50k in the coming few months, then we are likely to have a decent sized correction of at least 20%, but it could get into the 40% to 50% arena..

I think that there is a resistance at current price and also at $24k-ish, and then again at $30k... and probably some others on the way up.. but hey, I doubt that any of us should feel that we have to bank on the BTC price going up in order to profit.. - even though I know some folks want to get back over some of their buy cost thresholds, but if you keep buying when the BTC price is down, with the passage of time, your BTC price cost threshold comes down.. that is part of the benefits of DCA and also buying below your average cost per BTC... seems to improve your chances of profiting from your investment into bitcoin in the long term.

Too bad ChatGPT membership is now closed (who knows for how long).

At least, I have my WO 'membership' where I can partake in ChatGPT "funnies", albeit without an ability to ask for some myself.

BTW, it would make a perfect sense for some AI to make a play to accumulate bitcoin...just in case, lol.

https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bis-allows-banks-to-hold-2-of-their-reserves-in-cryptocurrencies-2966647

Don't shoot the messenger, I didn't pick the wording

Explanation

Source

when see BTC price $21k the relax mode on fly up BTC

I buy the dips and sell the rips, this is my contribution to price discovery  
watching price and placing bets, doubling down, taking profits, cutting losses. Its fun.
come on you know you wana play  

Bitcoin no doesn't work like that... It does not like to be told what to do, nor to tell it when to do it, but it does not mind if you look at the charts after it did what it is going to do in order to try to describe what it had done.

It seems that some folks have difficulties merely describing historical performance.. so how are they going to get future performance correct with any degree of specifics?


Down.

Note:  One of the challenges is that it does not matter what "we" say in regards to what the price of dee cornz is going to do.. since  It may well be the case that king daddy will just end up doing the opposite, merely to teach uie-pooie a lesson.. even if many of us already realize that uie pooie may well not be teachable.


Does not mean that it is a good idea to short it when the BTC price is about 75% below the November 2021 top and also about 31% below the 200-week moving average.  That does not seem to be very smart.. even if you might be able to keep doubling down on your dumb bet until we get to $50k.


I feel that I don't really agree with your analysis cmacwuz (even though as I typed more of my responsive post, I ended up having some difficulties articulating the extent to which I am having "troubles" with it) but I sent you a merit anyhow with a hope that maybe you will participate more (in this thread, for example) in order that some of us might be able to tell you the various ways that you seem to be wrong.

On thing it seems as if Powell is trying some 2022/2023 variation of Volcker's approach, and it seems difficult to conclude that he is not having quite a bit more success than many folks had considered to be even possible.

Another thing is that even though I kind of understand and appreciate what you are saying, I doubt that bitcoin is a "bet against" the various status quo institutions that are fucking around with the money and their various demonstrations of desperation...   For sure it seems that bitcoin is going to continue to contribute towards providing an Opt out of those various corrupt systems and likely a lot of current bitcoiners would likely devolve into some level of crazy if they did not have bitcoin as an option that can offset the craziness that seems to be going on with the unsustainable monetary matters in the current system.. even though surely the current system might still be able to continue to deceive normies into believing it is working for a few more cycles.. though the extremes are already pretty bad and pretty desperate, so they might consider that they are going to have to play harder ball, even though it is kind of difficult to understand if they might actually be able to pull off the lack of system collapse, which they might be considering to be the "softlanding" that hurts some folks more than others.. but gosh, I would hate if we really did end up going into Armageddon.. which could happen if we wish for the demise of status quo governmental and financial to happen too quickly.

kind of looks like the explosive move is done (might be to soon to say for sure )
question now is, will it hold, grind to 23K? or fall!?  

Explanation

Agreed. I think we actually test 23-24k tuesday given probably low volume monday due to MLK

Explanation