Explanation
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 25579. (Read 26610702 times)
September 27, 2014, 01:01:16 PM
September 27, 2014, 12:58:09 PM
Dell, Paypal that I would have had wet dreams about joining bitcoin a year ago, have little to no impact on the price as it continues to edge it's way down. A lot more people have money in Bitcoin they want to get out then money exists on the order book. There is a bottom to it somewhere but pissed of panic stricken investors will severely overshoot that mark on one dark day soon. Low buy orders doubling up as you go further down from i'd say a starting point of about 200-250 depending on how much of a gambler you are!
Also be aware their could be regulatory repercussions proposed (under the guise?) to protect investors as a result of a big burst in Bitcoin.
(I'd look for the average value(s) of about 5 decent feeds of clean, logical common sense and use your own judgement too)
Agreed (mostly), but sadly your common sense isn't so common. Going below $200-250 is more bearish than I. Also be aware their could be regulatory repercussions proposed (under the guise?) to protect investors as a result of a big burst in Bitcoin.
(I'd look for the average value(s) of about 5 decent feeds of clean, logical common sense and use your own judgement too)
September 27, 2014, 12:53:55 PM
Common sense beats technical analysis every time.
What's your common sense telling you now?Dell, Paypal that I would have had wet dreams about joining bitcoin a year ago, have little to no impact on the price as it continues to edge it's way down. A lot more people have money in Bitcoin they want to get out then money exists on the order book. There is a bottom to it somewhere but pissed of panic stricken investors will severely overshoot that mark on one dark day soon. Low buy orders doubling up as you go further down from i'd say a starting point of about 200-250 depending on how much of a gambler you are!
Also be aware their could be regulatory repercussions proposed (under the guise?) to protect investors as a result of a big burst in Bitcoin.
(I'd look for the average value(s) of about 5 decent feeds of clean, logical common sense and use your own judgement too)
September 27, 2014, 12:49:00 PM
Such a toxic environment here.
Please go gamble in the casino, instead of raping some game-changing technology in it's infancy.
Please go gamble in the casino, instead of raping some game-changing technology in it's infancy.
In its infancy ... yeah, right ...
It's only six years old, after all. Most people here are late adopters, entering the world of Bitcoin in its twilight years. But of course, the cultists, permabulls and other scammers would have them believe they're all early adopters.
care to lookup what the internet looked like 6 years in?
twilight years.... yeah right. it does look like we've come full circle.
September 27, 2014, 12:47:06 PM
Common sense beats technical analysis every time.
What's your common sense telling you now? September 27, 2014, 12:46:07 PM
Make a calculation of EV based on assumptions of different price targets and their chances of materializing. Make them conservative to to safe. The EV calculated will be extremely higher than current price.
Gotcha.Calculated for $.05, and $200. Sort'a stuck calculating $2,000. How do I convert "snowball's chance in hell" into numbers?
Well, "the market's EV" is 400$. Therefore, "the market" thinks, rightly or wrongly, that the chances of BTC being worth 2000 USD at any time in the next 5 years are somewhat less than 35%. An investor who thinks that there is a 35% chance of selling for 2000$ within 5 years should be buying BTC for 400$, since the expected profit would be at least 12% per year. Since there are bitcoins for sale at 400$, and no one is buying them, the market's opinion is that the chances of "2000$ within 5 years" must be less than that.
exactly, the price is always right, because it consolidates all estimates of all market participants at any given time. the only way to forecast prices is via technical analysis - and this can only work when done in an unbiased way
Common sense beats technical analysis every time.
September 27, 2014, 12:43:06 PM
Make a calculation of EV based on assumptions of different price targets and their chances of materializing. Make them conservative to to safe. The EV calculated will be extremely higher than current price.
Gotcha.Calculated for $.05, and $200. Sort'a stuck calculating $2,000. How do I convert "snowball's chance in hell" into numbers?
Well, "the market's EV" is 400$. Therefore, "the market" thinks, rightly or wrongly, that the chances of BTC being worth 2000 USD at any time in the next 5 years are somewhat less than 35%. An investor who thinks that there is a 35% chance of selling for 2000$ within 5 years should be buying BTC for 400$, since the expected profit would be at least 12% per year. Since there are bitcoins for sale at 400$, and no one is buying them, the market's opinion is that the chances of "2000$ within 5 years" must be less than that.
To be sure, that must be the opinion only of all those who have looked at bitcoin and still have investment money on hand. Those who have higher expectations for the price should have already all their money invested in BTC already.
Actually, the 12%/year ROI above assumes that the only alternative to "2000$ within 5 years" is "price will immediatel crash to 0$". But the market must not be that pessimistic about the alternatives: the price may do many other things, with significant probabilities, besides crashing to 0$. So, the market's probability for "2000$ within 5 years" must be much less than 35%.
You're substantially over estimating the thought capabilities of over 99.87% of market participants, I would really struggle to believe this overwhelming statistical majority even understand which way to hold their toothbrush.
September 27, 2014, 12:41:11 PM
@shroomskit
Y U NO like cheap coins ? ? ? ? ? ?
Y U NO like cheap coins ? ? ? ? ? ?
September 27, 2014, 12:39:14 PM
Have you paid the troll toll exo?
September 27, 2014, 12:34:19 PM
...
Since there are bitcoins for sale at 400$, and no one is buying them, the market's opinion is that the chances of "2000$ within 5 years" must be less than that.
...
Since there are bitcoins for sale at 400$, and no one is buying them, the market's opinion is that the chances of "2000$ within 5 years" must be less than that.
...
Um, no. Expecting 2000$ within 5 years is bearish, IMO at the end of 2016 price will surpass 3000$, but that's not the point.
The market "believes" there are cheaper coins on the horizon, and even if someone misses the very bottom he'll have the
opportunity to buy back at the current price (or maybe 500$) for months during the first phase of the next bull market.
Yes. And when we hit 350 in a couple of days or weeks, the market will still believe there are even cheaper coins on the horizon. Thus, potential buyers will delay their buy-in. Then, when we hit 300, they will still believe there are even cheaper coins on the horizon ... Etcetera ...
While we approach zero in this manner, collective fear and uncertainty will grow, the media portrayal of Bitcoin will turn more sour, and the average Joes (who were supposed to fuel the next bubble) will therefore continue staying away from this Beanie Baby mania. All the while, the cultists will continue yelling about 10k coins and Wall Street money entering the BTC economy any day now.
September 27, 2014, 12:26:39 PM
...
Since there are bitcoins for sale at 400$, and no one is buying them, the market's opinion is that the chances of "2000$ within 5 years" must be less than that.
...
Since there are bitcoins for sale at 400$, and no one is buying them, the market's opinion is that the chances of "2000$ within 5 years" must be less than that.
...
Um, no. Expecting 2000$ within 5 years is bearish, IMO at the end of 2016 price will surpass 3000$, but that's not the point.
The market "believes" there are cheaper coins on the horizon, and even if someone misses the very bottom he'll have the
opportunity to buy back at the current price (or maybe 500$) for months during the first phase of the next bull market.
September 27, 2014, 12:24:08 PM
Such a toxic environment here.
Please go gamble in the casino, instead of raping some game-changing technology in it's infancy.
Please go gamble in the casino, instead of raping some game-changing technology in it's infancy.
In its infancy ... yeah, right ...
It's only six years old, after all. Most people here are late adopters, entering the world of Bitcoin in its twilight years. But of course, the cultists, permabulls and other scammers would have them believe they're all early adopters.
September 27, 2014, 12:18:27 PM
Make a calculation of EV based on assumptions of different price targets and their chances of materializing. Make them conservative to to safe. The EV calculated will be extremely higher than current price.
Gotcha.Calculated for $.05, and $200. Sort'a stuck calculating $2,000. How do I convert "snowball's chance in hell" into numbers?
Well, "the market's EV" is 400$. Therefore, "the market" thinks, rightly or wrongly, that the chances of BTC being worth 2000 USD at any time in the next 5 years are somewhat less than 35%. An investor who thinks that there is a 35% chance of selling for 2000$ within 5 years should be buying BTC for 400$, since the expected profit would be at least 12% per year. Since there are bitcoins for sale at 400$, and no one is buying them, the market's opinion is that the chances of "2000$ within 5 years" must be less than that.
exactly, the price is always right, because it consolidates all estimates of all market participants at any given time. the only way to forecast prices is via technical analysis - and this can only work when done in an unbiased way
September 27, 2014, 12:16:40 PM
Volume pitiful. Women and children first eh abercrombie?
A quick look at bitcoinwisdom shows the price is still 400.
A quick look at bitcoinwisdom shows the price is still 400.
September 27, 2014, 12:02:48 PM
Blocks/hour 4.94 / 729 s
Thats it, bitcoin network is dying together with the price. RIP Sweet Prince.
Just kidding..
Thats it, bitcoin network is dying together with the price. RIP Sweet Prince.
Just kidding..
hash rate crashing is bullish because its going to take longer for poeple to move their coins to the exchanges
September 27, 2014, 12:01:17 PM
September 27, 2014, 11:56:28 AM
Blocks/hour 4.94 / 729 s
Thats it, bitcoin network is dying together with the price. RIP Sweet Prince.
Just kidding..
Thats it, bitcoin network is dying together with the price. RIP Sweet Prince.
Just kidding..
September 27, 2014, 11:55:59 AM
Make a calculation of EV based on assumptions of different price targets and their chances of materializing. Make them conservative to to safe. The EV calculated will be extremely higher than current price.
Gotcha.Calculated for $.05, and $200. Sort'a stuck calculating $2,000. How do I convert "snowball's chance in hell" into numbers?
Well, "the market's EV" is 400$. Therefore, "the market" thinks, rightly or wrongly, that the chances of BTC being worth 2000 USD at any time in the next 5 years are somewhat less than 35%. An investor who thinks that there is a 35% chance of selling for 2000$ within 5 years should be buying BTC for 400$, since the expected profit would be at least 12% per year. Since there are bitcoins for sale at 400$, and no one is buying them, the market's opinion is that the chances of "2000$ within 5 years" must be less than that.
To be sure, that must be the opinion only of all those who have looked at bitcoin and still have investment money on hand. Those who have higher expectations for the price should have already all their money invested in BTC already.
Actually, the 12%/year ROI above assumes that the only alternative to "2000$ within 5 years" is "price will immediatel crash to 0$". But the market must not be that pessimistic about the alternatives: the price may do many other things, with significant probabilities, besides crashing to 0$. So, the market's probability for "2000$ within 5 years" must be much less than 35%.
September 27, 2014, 11:53:04 AM
Please go gamble in the casino, instead of raping some game-changing technology in it's infancy.
Paid $1200/BTC. How does I investment
Fixed that for you..
September 27, 2014, 11:49:39 AM
Such a toxic environment here.
Please go gamble in the casino, instead of raping some game-changing technology in it's infancy.
Please go gamble in the casino, instead of raping some game-changing technology in it's infancy.
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