Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 25850.

jeezy

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Quote from: inca on September 13, 2014, 06:48:44 AM

In a veritable sea of good news the decline seems to have stalled.

Looking at a 12 hour chart on bitcoinwisdom of stamp it looks surprisingly bullish. A sequence of higher lows. A move upwards to retest the 680 area (despite the doom mongering reaching an almost overwhelming din on here the last few weeks) looks both possible and if it occurs over the next month would be a nice platform for a potential next move upwards. If that happens then it will look really obvious that the 3xx low was THE low and all the bears will be wondering why they didn't buy in between 3xx and 650

.

I guess you mean 4xx both times but otherwise yeah pretty much this.

ChartBuddy

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Explanation

inca

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In a veritable sea of good news the decline seems to have stalled.

Looking at a 12 hour chart on bitcoinwisdom of stamp it looks surprisingly bullish. A sequence of higher lows. A move upwards to retest the 680 area (despite the doom mongering reaching an almost overwhelming din on here the last few weeks) looks both possible and if it occurs over the next month would be a nice platform for a potential next move upwards. If that happens then it will look really obvious that the 3xx low was THE low and all the bears will be wondering why they didn't buy in between 3xx and 650

.

Dump3er

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vipgelsi

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Quote from: kurb3l on September 13, 2014, 06:39:04 AM

The big buy this morning on bitfinex didn't affect the price on huobi very much. While on bitstamp and bitfinex the price was rising, not much happened on huobi. Seems that without the support of the chinese we won't go up. It can sometimes be seen that the price bounces back if the other exchanges don't move. I think it's because of arbitrage trading?

Yes i believe it is a lot of arbitrage trading going on. But at least the exchanges are staying healthy making commission.

kurb3l

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The big buy this morning on bitfinex didn't affect the price on huobi very much. While on bitstamp and bitfinex the price was rising, not much happened on huobi. Seems that without the support of the chinese we won't go up. It can sometimes be seen that the price bounces back if the other exchanges don't move. I think it's because of arbitrage trading?

klee

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Quote from: inca on September 13, 2014, 06:33:56 AM

Need a big bull buy on bitstamp to get us moving..

Time is on our side Wink

Wilhelm

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Quote from: Zicore47 on September 13, 2014, 06:14:54 AM

I see where this is going

Is that extinction Sad

Dump3er

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Quote from: btcney on September 13, 2014, 06:30:18 AM

inca

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Need a big bull buy on bitstamp to get us moving..

btcney

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yokosan

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Zicore47

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I see where this is going

klee

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Quote from: Teppino on September 13, 2014, 06:03:39 AM

Quote from: kurb3l on September 13, 2014, 05:33:00 AM

Quote from: Teppino on September 13, 2014, 04:23:48 AM

Quote from: klee on September 13, 2014, 04:15:18 AM

Quote from: phoenix1 on September 13, 2014, 04:08:57 AM

Quote from: klee on September 13, 2014, 03:52:01 AM

Quote from: phoenix1 on September 13, 2014, 03:42:31 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on September 13, 2014, 03:24:06 AM

http://www.bfxdata.com/swaphistory/totals.php

seems like a huge short or amount of shorts closed

^^ This. Looks like that big buy was no whale accumulator, but a/many shorter(s) closing their positions for low slippage.
Potentailly bearish in reality as 11k was waaay too high for the market to make any significant move down.
Now at 5.5k, there are not enough shorts to squeeze IMO.

What does this mean? I am not very familiar with the technical terms...

That big wall on BFX allowed the majority of the 5k shorts to be closed without moving the price significantly.
Low slippage = executing an order without significantly moving the market - if the wall had not been there, executing a market buy to close those shorts would have wiped out the order book and pushed the price way higher = high slippage
Hence why they were potentially a sitting duck for a short squeeze. Now that they are gone ...

On the other hand it is bullish that they closed them, right?

Even if we won't have such a sudden spike in price.

I'm afraid those shorts were a warranty against the price going down. Shorts are btc sold for usd with the hope of buying back when price goes down, so (i could be wrong as i lack experience there) in my understanding shorts = potential buy pressure on a downtrend.
Now that market went clear of those, with low slippage also, it could very well go down to squeeze longs without that added buy pressure.

Weren't these shorts a speculation of a falling price? So with them closing, they actually buy new BTC and you never buy before a price you personally see as bottom i'd think.
I'd treat this as bullish

I really don't know, in my opinion those BTC were already sold when opening the short and now are being bought back at a loss, out of margin calls or fear. It's probably a zero sum game. Still now we have less downward resistance than before. What will come out of this situation i don't know becouse honestly i don't understand this market at all, i only hold.

me too, when in doubt hodl

Teppino

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bitcoin hates walls

Quote from: kurb3l on September 13, 2014, 05:33:00 AM

Quote from: Teppino on September 13, 2014, 04:23:48 AM

Quote from: klee on September 13, 2014, 04:15:18 AM

Quote from: phoenix1 on September 13, 2014, 04:08:57 AM

Quote from: klee on September 13, 2014, 03:52:01 AM

Quote from: phoenix1 on September 13, 2014, 03:42:31 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on September 13, 2014, 03:24:06 AM

http://www.bfxdata.com/swaphistory/totals.php

seems like a huge short or amount of shorts closed

^^ This. Looks like that big buy was no whale accumulator, but a/many shorter(s) closing their positions for low slippage.
Potentailly bearish in reality as 11k was waaay too high for the market to make any significant move down.
Now at 5.5k, there are not enough shorts to squeeze IMO.

What does this mean? I am not very familiar with the technical terms...

That big wall on BFX allowed the majority of the 5k shorts to be closed without moving the price significantly.
Low slippage = executing an order without significantly moving the market - if the wall had not been there, executing a market buy to close those shorts would have wiped out the order book and pushed the price way higher = high slippage
Hence why they were potentially a sitting duck for a short squeeze. Now that they are gone ...

On the other hand it is bullish that they closed them, right?

Even if we won't have such a sudden spike in price.

I'm afraid those shorts were a warranty against the price going down. Shorts are btc sold for usd with the hope of buying back when price goes down, so (i could be wrong as i lack experience there) in my understanding shorts = potential buy pressure on a downtrend.
Now that market went clear of those, with low slippage also, it could very well go down to squeeze longs without that added buy pressure.

Weren't these shorts a speculation of a falling price? So with them closing, they actually buy new BTC and you never buy before a price you personally see as bottom i'd think.
I'd treat this as bullish

I really don't know, in my opinion those BTC were already sold when opening the short and now are being bought back at a loss, out of margin calls or fear. It's probably a zero sum game. Still now we have less downward resistance than before. What will come out of this situation i don't know becouse honestly i don't understand this market at all, i only hold.

inca

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Activity: 1176

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Quote from: kurb3l on September 13, 2014, 05:33:00 AM

Quote from: Teppino on September 13, 2014, 04:23:48 AM

Quote from: klee on September 13, 2014, 04:15:18 AM

Quote from: phoenix1 on September 13, 2014, 04:08:57 AM

Quote from: klee on September 13, 2014, 03:52:01 AM

Quote from: phoenix1 on September 13, 2014, 03:42:31 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on September 13, 2014, 03:24:06 AM

http://www.bfxdata.com/swaphistory/totals.php

seems like a huge short or amount of shorts closed

^^ This. Looks like that big buy was no whale accumulator, but a/many shorter(s) closing their positions for low slippage.
Potentailly bearish in reality as 11k was waaay too high for the market to make any significant move down.
Now at 5.5k, there are not enough shorts to squeeze IMO.

What does this mean? I am not very familiar with the technical terms...

That big wall on BFX allowed the majority of the 5k shorts to be closed without moving the price significantly.
Low slippage = executing an order without significantly moving the market - if the wall had not been there, executing a market buy to close those shorts would have wiped out the order book and pushed the price way higher = high slippage
Hence why they were potentially a sitting duck for a short squeeze. Now that they are gone ...

On the other hand it is bullish that they closed them, right?

Even if we won't have such a sudden spike in price.

I'm afraid those shorts were a warranty against the price going down. Shorts are btc sold for usd with the hope of buying back when price goes down, so (i could be wrong as i lack experience there) in my understanding shorts = potential buy pressure on a downtrend.
Now that market went clear of those, with low slippage also, it could very well go down to squeeze longs without that added buy pressure.

Weren't these shorts a speculation of a falling price? So with them closing, they actually buy new BTC and you never buy before a price you personally see as bottom i'd think.
I'd treat this as bullish

Yes it possible to get things upside down if you think about it too much. Closing shorts does indeed mean that coin being bought back to close them has happened. But it also means that the person shorting several thousand contracts has thrown in the towel at this level. If the price were to fall lower they would likely leave them on or buy more.

It seems to me that there is no follow-through selling despite the intermittent dumps from whoever is selling. If it someone trying to move the market for profit then the closure of lots of shorts is a good thing as it may signal that the dumper feels the strategy isnt working anymore. It may be a sign we can move up now. We'll see.

ChartBuddy

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Explanation

phoenix1

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Just want to clarify that the numbers in my post were incorrect ... 9.2k shorts were reduced to 5.8k with that buy. Read the chart wrong.

FWIW, if IIRC correctly that wall on Stamp and the one on BFX went up at the same time, ergo same entity, so it is likely real or would have been pulled by now. Certainly looks like we will be finding out soon enough Wink

kurb3l

newbie

Activity: 25

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Quote from: Teppino on September 13, 2014, 04:23:48 AM

Quote from: klee on September 13, 2014, 04:15:18 AM

Quote from: phoenix1 on September 13, 2014, 04:08:57 AM

Quote from: klee on September 13, 2014, 03:52:01 AM

Quote from: phoenix1 on September 13, 2014, 03:42:31 AM

Quote from: Davyd05 on September 13, 2014, 03:24:06 AM

http://www.bfxdata.com/swaphistory/totals.php

seems like a huge short or amount of shorts closed

^^ This. Looks like that big buy was no whale accumulator, but a/many shorter(s) closing their positions for low slippage.
Potentailly bearish in reality as 11k was waaay too high for the market to make any significant move down.
Now at 5.5k, there are not enough shorts to squeeze IMO.

What does this mean? I am not very familiar with the technical terms...

That big wall on BFX allowed the majority of the 5k shorts to be closed without moving the price significantly.
Low slippage = executing an order without significantly moving the market - if the wall had not been there, executing a market buy to close those shorts would have wiped out the order book and pushed the price way higher = high slippage
Hence why they were potentially a sitting duck for a short squeeze. Now that they are gone ...

On the other hand it is bullish that they closed them, right?

Even if we won't have such a sudden spike in price.

I'm afraid those shorts were a warranty against the price going down. Shorts are btc sold for usd with the hope of buying back when price goes down, so (i could be wrong as i lack experience there) in my understanding shorts = potential buy pressure on a downtrend.
Now that market went clear of those, with low slippage also, it could very well go down to squeeze longs without that added buy pressure.

Weren't these shorts a speculation of a falling price? So with them closing, they actually buy new BTC and you never buy before a price you personally see as bottom i'd think.
I'd treat this as bullish

klee

legendary

Activity: 1498

Merit: 1000

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lq_shHu4lAs

Grin

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