Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 25865. (Read 26609048 times)

There cannot be rigorous arguments in that sort of subject.  As in religion, the arguments will seem rigorous to believers, but fallacious to non-believers.

For any of your arguments, I am sure I can provide an equally "rigorous" argument that proves the opposite -- that one cannot have a peaceful, agreeable, and productive society without a strong democratic government.

(Plus, there is the small issue of historical examples...)

Yes, if there are less than a few thousand people scattered through all corners of the earth, then probably there was NO government and no need for a government; however, when people started to live in community and to share resources and resources become limited, then the more need there is for a government.

No, because I tell them it's paying $800 with the risk of losing it all or multiplying it multiple times.
Much, much better outs than a casino roulette red/black game.

I don't think so, 3400 bitcoin wall at 475$ on bitfinex, we will stay here for now and maybe we will go down (again...)

Hahah, you again predicted the market, even fail to read many times.
I never saw even once when you were right to predict right.

And we have a lift off!!

I really like when green field is more up than down.

I was waiting whole week for that situation - but still like always I haven't got money to buy BTC - but I truly suggest that this is very good moment to buy before the price will go up $30+.


Regards.

Explanation

I think you can safely assume the planet functioned perfectly fine billions of years without having a government.

Bitcoin itself is not a scam.

Telling common folk to invest in bitcoin because it is safer than stocks, because it will be worth a zillion in a few years, because it will be the currency of the inerne, etc. -- that is a scam.  Even, or especially, if supported by pseudoscience like the logscale straight-line extrapolation, the (total e-commerce)/(finite suppliy) argument, blockchain statistics passed off as usage statistics, etc.  Especilly if the victim is not told that the price will depend on the mood of the Chinese tea traders, that no one will care if his bitcoins get stolen, etc..

(TelexFree had a non-scam product, some uninteresting VOIP card.  The scam was getting millions of people to invest all their savings in the MLM scheme.)


That is what I am very skeptical about.

I tell people why i am skeptical.  Ultimately it will be their decision to invest or not.  I will run the risk of being wrong.

Have you considered the scenario where the price will crash to 100$ or less?  Will the people whom you convinced to invest their savings at 800 $/BTC hate you for that?

Welcome to 2 years ago 

So, I opened a short at $491. The reason? The rally back, although impressive in monetary terms, was a fairly low volume rally -- which I am learning is usually a trap.

For those who are asking -- is there something wrong with Bitcoin? No. Not at all. The past few months have seen incredible breakthroughs. Are those breakthroughs and user adoption commensurate with the speculated run-up in the price that occurred years ahead of schedule (as speculation normally does) or did traders get carried away? Well, I think most people on here, besides zealots, would agree that there was definitely a bubble. That leaves us with the very challenging question -- is today's price cheap in real terms or only cheap in relation to an uber-bubble. The former is probably correct, but concerns over the latter persist.

Anyhow, even thinking that, a short over the next couple weeks seems to be the right view because we are still in a long-term bear market and we don't have sufficient regular user adoption to breakthrough technical points. Thus, the whales, many of whom are dumpers, dictate the price.

Looking out over a one year timeline, we should see prices in the range of double today's (maybe higher, but one step at a time). However, in the interim, I highly suspect we'll have to see another flash crash... and one that is blatant enough that traders know a bottom is in place, before we can begin that rally in frank. Furthermore, mix in dumpers and bots and it is easy to see that we keep bouncing off technical points with the dumpers holding a steady lead in volume (given their disproportionate wealth). I very much believe, then, after taking a few days to just chill out, look at charts, and rethink things that we have to go down more and, perhaps, painfully so.

So, if you are a short-term or intermediate-player (or you are carrying a trade on margin) then it may be prudent to ease up your exposure. If you are holding then, and there is never a guarantee but you have to play the odds, the best move is probably to hold strong... even through a crash. Lastly, regardless o which camp you all in, I'd hold some fiat on an exchange for bargain buying post a flash crash.

That's my slightly more thoughtful than usual take on what's going on and how to deal with it.

P.S. -- if you are in LTC run for the hills... look at the numbers on the shorts... run for the hills because a slaughter is right around the corner
P.S. #2 -- Don't short LTC, though, unless you don't sleep at all AND/OR you institute relatively narrow stop-losses. You will fall asleep. You will get burnt. You will be ornery for about a month thereafter (this happened to me on a relatively meaningless bet during high volatility... it was exactly as stupid as it sounds).

I disagree only with this part.

The people who derive unearned benefits from the current corrupt system, and who prefer those unearned benefits to a more fair system, will not benefit from Bitcoin.

Even if you could prove that Ben Bernanke would end up with more real disposable income in a Bitcoin world than a Dollar world, you still can't unilaterally conclude that Ben Bernanke would benefit from the change.

This is because value is subjective and only Ben Bernanke can determine whether a world in which he has less control over other people's money and more disposable income of his own, compared to the present, is a benefit to him.

This is where you are wrong and confused about what money is and how it functions. It falls wholly within the theories and quantifiable outcomes of game theoretic analysis. There is no voodoo science, humanities, politics, leaps of faith or religion involved. Bitcoin will succeed because it is advantageous and beneficial for every individual player of the money game AND the world/economy at large that would adopt it, versus centrally-managed depreciating fiat (see games with transferable utility).

http://sites.stat.psu.edu/~babu/nash/money.pdf

You are the scammer for keeping the poor huddled, confused masses cowering in fear of the unknown and clinging to their corrupted, mismanaged savings and life earnings.

Smart.

I think the best lesson from the last month is to keep a bid open $10-20 below market.  The buyer makes a quick profit on the bounce, and the dumper makes less money on the drop.

I'm putting together a government grant proposal to study ancient coloring books. I've got a friend in the government who will rubber stamp it. I'm thinking $400k a year for 5 years sounds about right. Am in the right ballpark Jorge?

So is the belief that governments are necessary and in fact desirable for human societies to exist.

And while there is not much historical evidence suggesting a government-less society would or would not function due to absence of data, there is in fact a humongous amount of evidence that governments not only fail to deliver on their promises of security and fairness, they are incapable of doing so due to their very structure, which inhibits information flow and direct feedback. And let's not forget the endless atrocities causing the death of millions and poverty for billions which would arguably be impossible to achieve without government.

The cosmic grandfather of christianity has been replaced by the big brother of the government.

It is a monotheistic religion still and those denouncing it must face ostracism as blasphemers.

You've gotten things confused - you're the one taking things on faith.

There are, in fact, rigorous logical arguments that prove government is incompatible with any consistent definition of ethics.

The fact that you've blindly asserted that those arguments don't exist, instead of asking whether or not they exist, shows that you probably wouldn't accept them even if you were unable to refute them.

Your explanation is ridiculous.  Sure there are various leaps of faith regarding how much we know about bitcoin and how we bet the probabilities of various events and accordingly probabilities of bitcoin's success or failure.... However, all of those various leaps of faith and various bets on probabilities does NOT rise to the level of religion.

By the way, I agree with you that bitcoin is more than just computer science and economics, and bitcoin touches on at least all of those other areas that you mention above "psychology, sociology, businesses, and politics" and probably more... but could you please discontinue with your frequent religious emphases because it seems that you are being unnecessarily provocative and misleading with these kinds of categorizing and arguing.

Sorry, but the belief that it is possible to get rid of governments, and that society will be better without them, is religion. One cannot be convinced of that by argument or historical examples; one has to take it on faith. 

More so for the belief that bitcoin will achieve that goal.

(By the way, Satoshi's goal when he described bitcoin was to design a digital cash system that did not require a trusted authority.  Period. The implementation was only meant to verify that the design was correct.  Period.  Bitcoin was not intended to be a replacement for credit cards, a way to buy sex and drugs safely, to evade taxes, to dodge the SEC, to destroy dollars, gvernments and banks, to keep your savings safe from inflation, or to get rich; or even to be THE method of internet payment used by everybody in the future.)