Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 2597. (Read 26711601 times)

Explanation

Explanation

@jjg..I discussed a potential future strategy, albeit if you back-test it to what happened before, you would see how successful it would have been. Duh!
I only had small sells here and there, that is true, but it does not not mean that I won't sell a larger % in the future (2023-2025).

Honestly, i was expecting bitcoin to moderate in this cycle and it did so on the upside (only 3.2X vs prior cycle's 17X between two ATHs), but NOT the downside (a smallish difference of -77.5% vs prior 84%). I know what was the reason: leverage, bad macro, etc., but still...

We shall see how the next cycle transpires...everybody seem to be confused with diametrically opposite opinions: anything from a deep freeze and flat btc to some exorbitant numbers.
Honestly, I am VERY surprised that the economy is able to perform quite well so far with rates being so high (and going higher).

That's true.   ONLY 9 days left in the year.. so the end of 2022 is coming upon us quickedly.



Hahahahaha.

Wait, wait, wait.. don't go.!!!!!!

oh?


too late.   

Well that's o.k.  it was not that important anyhow.

 


Yes.  That's a feature.. not a bug.


Do you even follow what you preach? 

Helrow?

You claim to never sell, and then you also describe some of your whimpy failures and refusals to sufficiently stack.

yeah, maybe you are quietly buying on dips.. but still.  I question if you even come close to practicing what you preach.. even if you might aspire to carry out what you are suggesting in the future.

Maybe I am being a bit rough on you?  perhaps?

I certainly attempt to follow much of what I describe, but surely sometimes each of us are talking about general principles in which we might not exactly follow on a personal level for each particular circumstance because actual price performance is ONLY one of several factors that we need to take into account: as you likely recognize and appreciate that Individual considerations include but are not limited to considering your cashflow, how much bitcoin you have already accumulated, your other investments, your view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and your time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and your abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

Explanation

DCA is a lazy method.

From all prior halvings and ATH here is a potential trading strategy:

1. ATH occurs at 1year-1.5 year after halving (in 2021 the double top was almost identical at ~1 year and 1.5 year).
2. Bitcoin bottoms occur after at least 80% decline from the ATH (happened 3 times, with just a slight decrease in % each time: 94,87, 84% decline).
The current cycle low was at about 77.5%.

Therefore, a "simple" trading strategy: sell at around 1-1.5 years after the halving (when prior exponent would start stalling). How to choose 1 year vs 1.5 year: sell when 30 day increase is at or more than 100% and we are around 1 year or 1.5 year interval post halving, then either buy a bunch at -75% or split into thirds and buy 1/3 at -70%, 1/3 at -75%, 1/3 at -80%. If the third point would not happen-buy something nice instead, like a car, vacation or a house (depending on your cap gains from the top). Don't chase.

Would you like to bet with Gapachin about that?


You must not understand DCA.

DCA in respect to BTC does not give any shits about short term prices - except perhaps retaining a presumption that in the long term 4-10 years or more (or whatever is your holding timeline) bitcoin is likely to have prices that are higher than they are today, so in that sense that it is likely to be a good investment and profitable in the long term.

Buying on the dip is another dynamic that can be used to supplement DCA.. but it is not DCA...  

Strict DCA does not concern itself with short-term price moves and also includes a kind of presumption that normies are not able to figure out short-term price moves, yet so long as the overall price trajectory of the asset (in this case bitcoin) is headed UPpity, then it is always advantageous to continue to buy at any price.. until perhaps reaching accumulation goals...  whether that is 1% to 25% of your investment portfolio or whatever other accumulation goals that you create for yourself based on your own individual financial and psychological circumstances.


That part all seems to be true.  Bitcoin has historically outperformed all other asset classes, including but not limited to stocks - and there are no real signs that bitcoin's investment thesis is getting any weaker with the passage of time - and like you suggest, bitcoin's investment thesis is likely becoming stronger rather than weaker with the passage of time.

What else is needed in order to be convinced that it is good to figure out some kind of a personal allocation into bitcoin and to take measures to attempt to achieve such allocation goals?  And, yes with the passage of time, it is likely that the trend of more and more people finding out is going to continue and bitcoin's various network effects are going to continue to grow.. even if  there might be short term uncertainties and blips along the way.


Well.  If you got that information in a newsletter, then it must be true.  No?


Well.  I guess, you won't be able to respond to my earlier responses... Kids these days.  In with a bang, out with a whimper.. They hardly have any staying power. .. must be all that soy that they are consuming.   

 

Explanation

Exactly.  Some "we-wee"s make more mistakes than other "we-wee"s.


"Let's" not and say that we did.


Uie-pooie can think whatevers yous would likie to thinkie, even if it is retarded.

No skin off my back.


Ok.  Do what you like then.  Think what you like.  Last time I checked, its a free country...

wait...


That's right.. you are free to choose your directions..

that's right.


that's riiiiiiiiiiiiggggggggght.


Ok.  We've exhausted the topic.  I was merely responding to uie-pooie..

Gosh..


bite my head off.


I did not say that, and I am not saying that.  The China mining ban is 2021 is an interesting point though in regards to a lot of bitcoin-related matters - but such "ban" did seems to temporarily affect the hashrate in a negative way with a near halvening of the hashrate that largely sprung back within about 4-6 months (and largely sprung back way more quickly than a lot of folks had expected).. .it also seemed to contribute towards already existing miners to have become extremely profitable and inspired a lot of new mining entrance - and perhaps overly leveraging.. and we see some of the fall out from that overleveraging and perhaps even overbuilding today.. ...and it seemed to inspire greater geographical diversity..  .. so yeah of course, BTC price was not unaffected by some of those matters.. but it would likely lead many folks to wrongedly assessments to attempt to hitch whatever various relationships of BTC price to hashrate during that period as if BTC prices were following hashrate.. but hey, believe whatevers you would like.. those are your choices.


Yes.. BTC price would be affected by the internet going down.


Aren't you Mr. Wonderful and such a genius too?

Go figure.


Who cares whether you were right or not about the "scamdemic?"  For argument sake, let's assume that you were right about the "scamedemic from day one", as you put it.   You are trying to argue that if you happen to be right about one topic, then all of a sudden you are right (or an expert) on all topics.  That makes a lot of sense.  


Is your dog friendly?  Or mean like you?

 


That was not a statement giving permission...   I retract all semblance of permission from that earlier statement, if any "permission" had previously existed therein.


For the sake of which others?  Are you now speaking on behalf of readers of the WO?


- except "Cryptotourist."


Now you are talking.  

This year may be a bit of a rough year for those who are still holding cryptocurrencies and hoping for a price increase to occur. Because in fact what has happened in the last 12 months or to be precise this year for cryptocurrencies is a decline in prices in the market. It's really unfortunate for crypto lovers, but it's not to be regretted because everyone needs to increase their level of patience in dealing with situations like now.



The year 2022 is coming to an end and over the past 12 months, the crypto economy has lost around $1.486 trillion in value against the US dollar. As of December 20, 2021, bitcoin was trading for $46,406 and has lost more than 63% of value this year. Roughly 365 days ago on December 20, 2021, the crypto economy was worth a lot more than it is today. 12 months of statistics show that $1.486 trillion has been removed from the crypto economy since that day, as it fell from $2.334 trillion to the December 20, 2022 value of $848 billion.
Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/2022s-market-review-crypto-economy-loses-1-4t-top-10-token-knockouts-terras-collapse/

Explanation

 Wait!  What do you mean stacked address?!  How big of a stack?!  What do we ask about it??  AWww... damn!  It's too late; he's gone.  We may never know.

Finally, thanks God! 

If we reach over 20 k this year it will be a christmas 🎄 miracle

Explanation

Lol @ the criminal US government trying to pass a $1.7 trillion bill.  More than 5 times the entire BTC market cap.   

Twitter now displays the #Bitcoin BTC chart directly in app



https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1605672662449152027?t=mEKpoO6dxofXTtUp4nXGCw&s=19

Alright.

Cryptotourist dies with this post - because of reasons.

It’s been brewing in my head since earlier this year, but only now getting round to it.
I will lock this account with a random password that I won’t be able to recreate.
Of course the email reset option will remain for now, but if this account ever posts again in the future, I urge anyone with two brain cells to ask for confirmation with the fingerprint on the profile AND the stacked Bitcoin address.
Moderators can also ban it for all I care. [kindly consider this post a request]

It’s been a real pleasure posting amongst you guys n girls.
Peace out.

Sunset

https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/is-binanceus-a-fake-exchange

Explanation