This. If nothing else there is truly a problem for the brand when exchanges malfunction, when markets are manipulated by margin hunters, and when the price is more or less set by a Junta of pot heavy insiders. The new money is, almost by definition, not of the hodler/true believer mentality. They can be converted, but it takes a while... again, they are new. So, if they lose a bit here and there while learning that is great. If they get whipsawed to death by market activity that is unexplained by TA or news... you lose them. We are skirting near the territory where you are facing the potential of a long-term setback for adoption and support.
I think we are losing adoption NOW. User numbers don't seem to be rising at all, and the main complaint is losing money on their investment. I literally know no one else who owns coins anymore. This manufactured drop from $600 is killing the tech. (Tes, exchange rates matter, trolls.)
Note that game theory says the price will trend to zero. As long as there are hundreds of people with enough coins to play the dump game, one of them will continue doing it to make their extra 20 or 30 coins per day. If you gave me 3k btc today, I could guarantee I would have 6k in 90 days. The game is too easy.
Those posters who say that the only people who care about the price (exchange rate) are get rich quick dreamers are deluded. If I could buy a laptop with 2 bitcoins 3 months ago, but now need to use 3 btc, there is a serious problem. And as long as 99.9% of goods require USD to purchase, the exchange rate is important.
I left out one point before: look at how much concentrated effort it took to break through support at 500. Thousands and thousands and thousands of coins dumped to break support and make the dump game possible again. How many of the big guys had to help to break through? I sincerely thought it was impossible to reach 490...forgetting that there are single individuals with 50k coins who could wipe out the entire order book.
Now, explain to me how it is possible to have another bubble. It will be a race to see who can dump fastest and hardest to make the biggest percentage gain on a thin order book. IIRC, to cut the price 40% in November only took a 1k dump; stops triggered, margins called, panic selling, huge profit with no risk. They won't be able to control themselves when the opportunity arises next time .
I will say this with all honesty: I no longer believe btc has any chance of being a serious currency due to its users. I have always been a short term agnostic and long term bull. I am full bear now. I doubt that we will ever see 700 again, and 300's will be here soon. The big guys are warning everyone everyday that they want lower prices. Believe them.
One step nearer to getting out of bear market. If only there are more posts like this.
