Both we know, that a bear is not something static. The bad and clever bear only had to sell his coins on ~1000 and bought back on ~400 to have 2,5x more coins (on only one swing).
Reading "bears never learn" after a long and hard bear/consolidation market makes me a bit afraid, that market participants are losing touch with reality.
No, I don't think we will fall to levels of oblivion and I hope we will build up a stable base between 400 - 600.
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The mysterious thing is that a lot of your bears will be on board of your CCMF, if and when it comes. Quite likely they would be one reason (if not the reason) of your CCMF.
Very much to the point. Really appreciate your posts in general in this thread, btw.
There was a discussion in here a while ago if it even makes sense to talk about "bulls" vs. "bears", or whether that's a gross simplification that should be avoided.. I suggested the following distinction:
(a) that as a successful trader or investor, you should strive to fall into neither camp, i.e. stay as objective wrt the market as possible, and
(b) that the only ones actually
deserving the label "bull" (or "bear") are those who accuse others loudly of being a "bear" (or "bull", respectively).
(don't complain. it only looks like a paradoxical definition.)It made sense to be a bear when the price was +900 USD and trolls screamed buy buy, but now when we are at the bottom, it doesn't make sense. Anyways, it is your choice.
Assuming that we're at the (absolute) bottom is your choice, just as well. And, to be honest, I still hear a lot of screaming "buy now or you'll miss the train". In fact, more than before perhaps.
Which was exactly schickeria's point by the way (if I understood him correctly). What you call "bears" are, often enough, more cautious traders/investors. They will eventually get back on board, if there's a clearer sign that we're back in rally territory. Them staying cautious now is kinda understandable then, no?
Also, to be clear on this: I'm not advocating selling now if you're planning to only make a trade once or twice a year. Entry prices of mid, maybe high 400s are probably safe for the coming months, on average (as in: even if we dip back into that region, I doubt we'll get stuck there). But I also sneer at the idea that the next "bubble" is just a month away. The market is still absolutely shaken. We either consolidate for another few months at least, with a weak upwards trend at best, or, maybe preferably, we take another plunge down. (I say "preferably", because a really dramatic crash could bring out the fiat sitting on the sidelines, and get some volume back into the market.)
