Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 262. (Read 26498317 times)
September 02, 2024, 08:14:55 AM
Enough buddy.
September 02, 2024, 08:01:16 AM
September 02, 2024, 07:01:19 AM
September 02, 2024, 06:01:15 AM
September 02, 2024, 05:01:17 AM
September 02, 2024, 04:06:25 AM
Buddy posting streak interrupted.
Again I'm starting to dislike the number 5
Again I'm starting to dislike the number 5
September 02, 2024, 04:01:17 AM
September 02, 2024, 03:01:15 AM
September 02, 2024, 02:01:15 AM
September 02, 2024, 01:01:18 AM
September 02, 2024, 12:01:15 AM
September 01, 2024, 11:21:48 PM
[edited out]
I cannot disagree with anything you're saying above. In Bitcoinland anything is possible and it would not surprise me (but would somewhat disappoint me) if we saw the price climbing up to 10x of its current value only to soon drop down to 5 digits. Still I somehow doubt the swing will be that wild. Maybe dropping down to low-6-digit levels, and then gently climbing up to find its steady-state maturity value (a.k.a. sideways/ant-pump/dumps until the next cycle). Will that pattern hold true forever? I don't think so, but I do think price will be monotonically increasing on average ("going up forever, Laura"), just not at the same magnitude/cycle (slowing down, which is why early adopters were (are) always the winners when compared to later ones).I agree with the point that earlier adopters are quite likely to always be better off than later adopters, even though I hate to bring up this point (or exception), that surely there could be waves in which some later adopters would end up being better off by entering bitcoin on on a great dip in the cycle rather than at the peak.. so someone coming into bitcoin balls to the walls in June 2022 would have had been better off than someone coming in balls to the wall in early 2021 (February 2021-ish)... .. Another thing is that since bitcoin is designed to pump forever, the later adopters of bitcoin are still going to benefit from getting into bitcoin, yet relatively speaking not as much as earlier adopters, especially if we are looking at dates of adoption that are several years apart (between the comparison points .. or comparison newbies entering into bitcoin and establishing their relative BTC positions) rather than just getting lucky in regards to timing BTC price waves that can be quite difficult to know with any level of confidence, which is part of the reason that almost no matter the BTC price (or even if there had been a recent BTC price upwards surge), I continuously suggest newbies get into bitcoin as soon as possible, rather than waiting for BTC price dips, since I really believe that even if BTC price shoots up, no one can really know that it is going to stop shooting up, and so in that regard, the ONLY way to prepare for further UP (or further potential UP) is by having bitcoin rather than waiting for BTC price dips that may or may not end up playing out.. and sure who wants to be a complete no coiner? Sure sometimes there might be reasons to be a bit of a low coiner in the process of building one's BTC holdings, yet the inclination for newbies (yet they gotta be responsible for their own inclinations) seems that it should be to make sure that they are always prepared for UP, so at least get out of no coiner status and try to minimize any kind of low coiner status, since anyone who transitions into being able to accumulate BTC as aggressively as he is able to do so as soon as possible, will likely end up passing through low coiner status** within a reasonably acceptable time.
** By the way, I consider "low coiner status" to be a mental state of mind rather than a reflection of how many coins a guy happens to hold. If you happen to be making only $100 to $200 per week and you ONLY have $10 per week of disposable income and you are buying $10 worth of bitcoin every week with the totality of your disposable income, then I surely would not consider such a person a low coiner since that person is doing as much as he is able to do given the tightness of his budget, and sure maybe he is going to need to work on ways to increase his disposable income by increasing his income and/or cutting his expenses.
About the 200-WMA, it is still my favorite indicator, although, again, small (or even larger) dips below it occasionally do not (and would not) surprise me. Its mathematical equation is far too simple to carry any significant/deep meaning that would make the indicator "intelligent" enough to capture the intricacies of a piece of code that's orders of magnitude more complex. Yet, it still does a pretty good job at setting a lower bound on the price, and giving us a frame of reference to assess things like "fuck-you" status thresholds and other such funzies. And, looking at the 200-WMA from a fully zoomed-out perspective, I do not really see many serious violations of its role as a price lower bound (every rule has exceptions, etc.), so it still remains my go-to reference for helping me answer the "when" and the "how much" questions that often arise in the life of a HoDLer.
Surely when any of us are attempting to use the 200-WMA as a commonly referenced (and talked about) guide, we can acknowledge it as a lagging indicator, yet part of its power also comes from the fact that it is lagging, too. Between June 2022 and October 2023, there were a lot of folks wanting to abandon the 200-WMA, yet I think some of those folks had been overly reliant on such 200-WMA and so they ended up structuring "more than they could afford to lose" and even leverage around their speculations about the 200-WMA being a floor price, so surely 16 months of spending a lot of time either below the 200-WMA or just barely above it, really did end up recking quite a few folks, and surely some of the more crazy ones were getting reckt towards the beginning of such 16 months period, yet it seems that there were quite a few continuing to get reckt and then getting bitter over the whole matter, so there likely can be ways to still consider the 200-WMA as a guideline bottom without getting overly reliant on it.. since gosh even some of us guys who are fairly conservative in our BTC portfolio management, the longer that we are in bitcoin, the more cushion we seem to be building in regards to the amount that we invested into bitcoin as compared to the value (or price) of our BTC holdings. So yeah it likely helps when we are not screwing around with leverage, or entrusting 3rd parties with much if any of our coins for the purposes of earning yield or the other possible ways that we might permit others to legally (or not so legally) gamble with our coins.
I like your reference to the Lindy Effect, it does seem to fit the history of Bitcoin, in that each cycle more or less builds a foundation upon which further price increases can create a staircase effect. Couple that with the ETFs and the general adoption that we've seen in recent years, and it's difficult for anyone (even enemies of Bitcoin) to dismiss its future.
Even though I still appreciate Stock to Flow, I am becoming more and more accepting of bitcoin's power law attributes
Robert Breedlove interviewed Giovanni Santostasi in the What is Money? (WIM) podcast for a little over 2 hours. Santostasi also had mentioned in other interviews** that he considers stock to flow to merely be a sub-variant of the power Law model with additional layers of complication added in.
** I reference those other interviews/podcasts in this post from about two weeks ago..
As for the price levels you mention in your last paragraph, I don't see any reason why we won't see them, especially near the end of 2025 when this cycle is likely to reach its peak. I think we are all in for some exciting times in the next 12-15 months. Perhaps many of us are going to reach very close to the end of this (never-ending, really) journey. Perhaps...
I understand what you are saying by end, but never ending, and I would prefer to consider that some of us go through various transitions into different stages of our bitcoin journey, and hopefully we would never be completely ending our journey, yet we are going to have various BTC price thresholds in which we might engage in lump sum or even some kind of more incremental withdrawal strategies - and hopefully we would not be making radical changes in regards to our bitcoin holdings in terms of shaving off large portions, and even something like 25% at a time might start to border on a bit much, yet each of us has to come to determinations regarding those kinds of risks and tradeoffs involved in cashing out those kinds of levels of our BTC holdings at any given time. Ultimately guys are going to do what they are going to do, and there surely could be "reasons" to plan out some larger quantity withdrawals that might otherwise seem to go higher than reasonable and/or prudent BTC portfolio management practices... and since each of us is in charge of our own determinations of "reasonable/prudent" some of us might not necessarily agree with (or understand) what another guy might choose to do at any given time..and we might even become scared/hesitant to share too many details of what we did on this thread.. hahahahahaha... sometimes I personally don't want to share while I am in the middle of doing it, even though I might decide to share some of my decisions at some later date.
September 01, 2024, 11:01:15 PM
September 01, 2024, 10:14:38 PM
Watched this vid (in part) over the weekend..a few interesting ideas:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRs_bnO9Ies
watch from here, maybe:
https://youtu.be/VRs_bnO9Ies?t=1726
see the trend line here:
https://youtu.be/VRs_bnO9Ies?t=1930
TL;DR Showed a smoothly (averaged) decline in bitcoin yearly return..the fun thing that it is projected to still be around 40-43% CAGR until 2030 (!). I can certainly live with that.
Look at the curve a bit later in the vid (green line)..if you bought in 2014-2015, you would have 75% CAGR (compound annual return), which is INCREDIBLE.
Currently, 20K under trend, which means that buying here would most likely be even more lucrative than 43% yearly CAGR.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRs_bnO9Ies
watch from here, maybe:
https://youtu.be/VRs_bnO9Ies?t=1726
see the trend line here:
https://youtu.be/VRs_bnO9Ies?t=1930
TL;DR Showed a smoothly (averaged) decline in bitcoin yearly return..the fun thing that it is projected to still be around 40-43% CAGR until 2030 (!). I can certainly live with that.
Look at the curve a bit later in the vid (green line)..if you bought in 2014-2015, you would have 75% CAGR (compound annual return), which is INCREDIBLE.
Currently, 20K under trend, which means that buying here would most likely be even more lucrative than 43% yearly CAGR.
September 01, 2024, 10:01:18 PM
September 01, 2024, 09:36:02 PM
.....................
If, by next year's end,
Price is still at 5 digits,
I will drink your tears!
.....................
If, by next year's end,
Price is still at 5 digits,
I will drink your tears!
.....................
I have heard some not unreasonable assessments that the BTC price could go up 3x to 10x from here, but then correct back down into the 5 digits - and yeah, not getting out of the 5 digits prior to the end of 2025 would be one thing, and correcting back down into the 5 digits would be another thing.
Frequently, how far we go up and how long we are able to stay up may well end up affecting the severity of the down, yet at the same time, prior to 2022-ish many of us (including a lot of folks who ended up getting quite reckt) speculated that BTC prices would not dip below the 200-WMA, unless such dips might merely be short-term and not too severe spikes below such threshold levels.
Yet we experienced a fairly extensive period of time of much of 16 months below the 200-WMA between June 2022 until October 2023, and there was a decent amount of time more than 10% below the 200-WMA with the greatest spike below the 200-WMA being 36% below.
In any event, it still seems that spending more time at higher prices has somewhat of a Lindy Effect that seems to make it somewhat more difficult to deviate as much from the gravitating price points, which has also been described as a Power Law, too.
Based on how much BTC demand seemed to have been flowing through the ETFs caused me to consider that we had decently good chances of reaching $120k to $180k this year and then potentially consolidating somewhere in that range, and surely I am not very excited about theories of going to 6 digits and then returning back to 5 digits, since I was thinking our top for this cycle (meaning by the end of 2025) would be somewhere north of $220k and perhaps even north of $400k, and I am not even opposed to the supra $1 million scenarios.. though it could be a wee bit too soon for those supra $1 million scenarios to play out and even feeling a bit looney just mentioning them, even though I likely would not even be assigning greater than a few percentage point odds on something like that for this cycle anyhow.. but I sill likely come off as a bit looney just for mentioning such.
I cannot disagree with anything you're saying above. In Bitcoinland anything is possible and it would not surprise me (but would somewhat disappoint me) if we saw the price climbing up to 10x of its current value only to soon drop down to 5 digits. Still I somehow doubt the swing will be that wild. Maybe dropping down to low-6-digit levels, and then gently climbing up to find its steady-state maturity value (a.k.a. sideways/ant-pump/dumps until the next cycle). Will that pattern hold true forever? I don't think so, but I do think price will be monotonically increasing on average ("going up forever, Laura"), just not at the same magnitude/cycle (slowing down, which is why early adopters were (are) always the winners when compared to later ones).
About the 200-WMA, it is still my favorite indicator, although, again, small (or even larger) dips below it occasionally do not (and would not) surprise me. Its mathematical equation is far too simple to carry any significant/deep meaning that would make the indicator "intelligent" enough to capture the intricacies of a piece of code that's orders of magnitude more complex. Yet, it still does a pretty good job at setting a lower bound on the price, and giving us a frame of reference to assess things like "fuck-you" status thresholds and other such funzies. And, looking at the 200-WMA from a fully zoomed-out perspective, I do not really see many serious violations of its role as a price lower bound (every rule has exceptions, etc.), so it still remains my go-to reference for helping me answer the "when" and the "how much" questions that often arise in the life of a HoDLer.
I like your reference to the Lindy Effect, it does seem to fit the history of Bitcoin, in that each cycle more or less builds a foundation upon which further price increases can create a staircase effect. Couple that with the ETFs and the general adoption that we've seen in recent years, and it's difficult for anyone (even enemies of Bitcoin) to dismiss its future. As for the price levels you mention in your last paragraph, I don't see any reason why we won't see them, especially near the end of 2025 when this cycle is likely to reach its peak. I think we are all in for some exciting times in the next 12-15 months. Perhaps many of us are going to reach very close to the end of this (never-ending, really) journey. Perhaps...
September 01, 2024, 09:32:10 PM
It seems the neckline for my inverse head and shoulder prediction did not pan out.
Could it still be considered a H&S if the neckline isn't completely parallel to the x axis? I think no.
Could it still be considered a H&S if the neckline isn't completely parallel to the x axis? I think no.
September 01, 2024, 09:01:16 PM
September 01, 2024, 09:00:38 PM
Sounds like a self-description.. of uie-pooie.
#Just noticing.
[edited out]
Looking at housing in the US (even though I can't live there, in fact currently I can't even travel there due to a Cuba vacation) I found out about high HOA fees for condos or even mobile homes, that's crazy. Here the only people paying large fees like that live in true luxury flats, I'm talking Trump Tower stuff, not a mobile home...I doubt that the USA is the ONLY place that has those kinds of locations..
What you seem to be describing would be a type of gated community, and some of the gated communities are designed for seasonal inhabitants that might have mobile homes or they might even have some quasi-permanent homes within the gated community, yet they pay for the lot (and maybe a house is already there or they can put their own house, or just use it as a mobile location with electrical hookups and perhaps plumbing hookups, and the reason for the Home Owners association fees would be for servicing of the various public areas, such as the roads and parks that are within the community, and there likely would be at least one community house (with meeting rooms and party rooms) and perhaps a few community swimming pools, saunas, gyms, public laundries and bathrooms. Security might involve the employment of gate guards and also security cameras. Perhaps some of them have community stores and restaurants within their parameters, too, and some are in better locations than others or more economical than others.
Anyway there is a bit of urgency now in my housing situation, at some point I was ready to use some BTC to buy but that's not the case anymore, I keep the BTC, however I have enough cash/stocks to buy something outright or with a manageable mortgage (down to 3% here in France so not too bad).
With the 3% rates, you are likely referring to an adjustable mortgage, which can become tricky even though I agree that 3% would not be bad if you are able to sustain a mortgage rate like that over several years. That kind of a rate would be even better if it were fixed.
Even if you have a decent amount of BTC right now might not be a great time to get rid of any of them, but from what I recall of your situation, you are not quite at the point that you are done accumulating, yet many of us who have been in bitcoin for a while likely realize that if we have been in bitcoin for a while, then we likely have decent options in regards to shaving off some of our stash from time to time for various expenses that we might have if we believe that there could be circumstances in which we are not quite if we have enough other kinds of our cashflow that we might want to use for such expenses, so in that regard, the BTC price is still 50% above the 200-WMA, so it is not really at bottom prices, even though surely many of us are likely anticipating a wee bit of a bump up in BTC prices from here.,... yet we can never really know about how likely would be the bump up in BTC prices with any level of confidence, so sometimes, if we are not sure about the price direction, there might be some value in terms of selling some BTC, especially if we are confident that we are going to be needing the money in the near-term.
I was thinking, well I'm still thinking, about moving to a cheaper, warmer country, in a seaside place, but that means quitting my job so it's a risky move, in the end I have decided to push that back a few years, I will take vacations instead, visit some countries to pinpoint the destination, maybe even French bits (French Caribbean, French Polynesia, Reunion island, New Caledonia is out with the civil war going on there).
I gather that French is spoken in each of those areas. Are there any English speaking places that you would consider? Or are you less comfortable with English-speaking locations?
So it makes sense to get a house for a few years, I might even keep it after I leave as a pied-à-terre.
Also if BTC goes up as we all want I could quit the job in a couple of years and stay here for a bit to see if I adapt well to not working, maybe go to the local swimming pool every day or something to "simulate" my final destination, go on longer vacations there, before making the move.
Also if BTC goes up as we all want I could quit the job in a couple of years and stay here for a bit to see if I adapt well to not working, maybe go to the local swimming pool every day or something to "simulate" my final destination, go on longer vacations there, before making the move.
It can be quite a bit of work to travel from location to location, and then packing light can feel like there is not enough stuff .. the living out of a suitcase feeling can sometimes be a bit difficult.. while at the same time, there can be adventure in it too..
hey buddy I am going to give you a merit as a bribe to drop price more . I want to buy some dip.
It is not good to be rooting for DOWNity.
#Just saying.
It makes you sound like a low coiner, no coiner and/or a trader**....
Oh Wait......
** Edit: I was considering adding a few more, such as shitcoiner, bitcoin naysayer, and/or fiat worshipper, but I decided not to quite go there, yet.
September 01, 2024, 08:41:48 PM
Looking at housing in the US (even though I can't live there, in fact currently I can't even travel there due to a Cuba vacation) I found out about high HOA fees for condos or even mobile homes, that's crazy. Here the only people paying large fees like that live in true luxury flats, I'm talking Trump Tower stuff, not a mobile home...
HOAs are far from ubiquitous and not that hard to avoid. You just tend to hear a lot of people complaining about them because many are terrible. There is also lots of affordable, spacious housing if you don't have to be in a big city and I like the area I live in but it would be hard to recommend it as a destination for someone looking to make the most of their wealth right now. Wait a few years and see how things shake out.
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