What's happening is people are taking profits and cutting their losses after a breakdown? Or is that too realistic?
Surely anyone can only take so much of living in their parents' basement while they're holding tens of thousands of bitcoins however much they believe in it. It's not a bad time to take some profits.
I would say it is actually a terrible time to take profits. Should have done it weeks ago if one wanted to maximize that profit. That, or hold on until the next run up. And make no mistake, there will be one.
Why? There are two obvious candidate scenarios to take profits, i.e. exit a long position: early on after a rally, at a suspected peak (which requires a certain amount of predictive analysis), and comparably late, when it looks like the only way to go from here is down (momentum based analysis). To me it looks like the current move is driven mainly by the second factor.
You're right...if you're exiting now, you're saying that the only way to go is down. And you'd likely be looking at a reasonably long time horizon, because if it is a
profitable long position, you've been in it at least three months.
If you really see nothing but down you cost yourself quite a bit by not realizing that 24 hours ago. If you think it might rebound, hell, you've already been in it a while.
Keep in mind, I'm just trying to give an explanation on why I don't see the swing of the last days as driven by "panic selling". Sure, if your trading horizon is daily, then selling today at $530 was a miss probably. And if your assumptions about Bitcoin are such that, in a year from now, you think it'll be worthless anyway, you should have sold long ago.
But if you, like a number of speculators/semi-holders/traders/whatever in here, are mostly opportunistic, and don't subscribe to the mantra that any price below the ATH (or some uber-optimistic regression trendline) is "cheap", then what's so irrational about selling now, expecting that you'll be able to buy back cheaper in a week (or a month) from now, when and if the market turns around again.
Time will show if it was indeed "panic selling" or not. If price goes further down from here, it wasn't. If we recover and never touch the mid-500s again, it was.