This is the latest update from the willy report, please read it.
I want to start off by saying I agree with a lot of the criticism on this article that’s appeared the Web; my conclusions were a bit too opinionated and perhaps exaggerated, and didn’t really fit the tone of the rest of the report, which was intended to be an objective account of my findings. I’ve corrected that with this update. Still, I stand by the most significant conclusion made: Willy was the cause for the November bubble. Sure, it didn’t do it all by itself, but it was the catalyst, and prevented price from coming down by effectively removing all selling pressure with its extremely constant buying (why market sell when you can place an ask order, and know it will be eaten into anyway?). In financial markets, sentiment is driven by price, much more so than the other way around. People see price skyrocketing, get euphoric, forget all the negative and assume the asset must be something absolutely amazing for people to place so much value in it (that, or they see an opportunity to “get rich quick”). It gets media attention, and sparks this whole positive feedback loop thing. A classic bubble in every way, really; but something has to light the fire, and subsequently prevent it from petering out.
Willy was the cause for the November bubble. So yeah, there it is.
This update doesn't add anything new and still doesn't show any proof whatsoever.
Also, the primacy of Gox is not true. Especially during the last bubble to $1200 Gox was becoming less and less relevant and with pathetic volume, while the chinese at BTC China started throwing hundreds of thousands into BTC.
Some argue that the major cause of the november bubble was basically the chinese and their trillion dollar shadow currency speculation game finally entering the BTC market, but no, now we are supposed to believe that a single bot on a single exchange with dead volume compared to Bitstamp was the major cause just because some dude on the internet without concrete proof (at least for his conclusions) told us so.
Maybe the BTC price IS a bubble and will collapse, but for other reasons (chinese pumping and dumping it, various problems, early adopters exiting etc) not because of a single bot on a single exchange.
