Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26587. (Read 26608895 times)

What are you invested in?

(this should be a fun non-answer)

Most of you guys seem to miss the point, that mostly the nutters are buying BTC, while it's unknown on what exactly happened to goxcoins.
The nutters are fanatical enough to ignore this threat, that those coins could have been stolen by a single thief, who would now have the power to crash the entire market beyond recovery.

Blind gambling isn't investing.

It was moved to $560 the other day and is still there.

Looks like the big wall around 575 was removed.

About 1000 lots were removed.

Any account of mt.gox trading that omits THK is an obvious troll.  Naive people should be advised that such persons are deceptive.

This theory states that the 850,000 coins were stolen when MtGox was hacked in June 2011.  The thief sold them over the following several months, producing the brutal bear market of 2011.  Mark K covered up the theft and used Markus and Willy to buy BTC with customer funds as necessary to make good on BTC withdrawals.  This theory also explains why Willy was put into reverse and dumped like crazy immediately prior to the collapse (so that client accounts were missing BTC rather than dollars, making the original theft (and cover-up) look like a recent theft.) 

When I looked at the plots in that report, I had the exact opposite impression.  The price at MtGOX increased by large discrete jumps every time "Markus" did his buys, but there did not seem to be an immediate echo of those jumps in China.  My reading is that "Markus" was merely doing arbitrage with China, buying cheap coins at MtGOX and seling them over there (presumably on BTC-China, which at the time had the largest volume).

Later, when "Markus" was replaced by the "Willy" robot, it became harder to tell who was leading.

Note that the bubble started two months after Huobi's opening and 4 months after OKCoin's.  The volume at Huobi grew steadily from ~130 BTC/day during September and October to ~30 kBTC/day in November, and the other Chinese exchanges had similar growth.   In November OKCoin had ~30 kBTC/day too, and BTC-China had ~50 kBTC/day, whereas MtGOX barely had dubled its volume to ~25 kBTC/day.

On Nov/18 and Nov/19 there were large spikes at those three Chinese exchanges; at Huobi and OKCoin the all-time high actually was on Nov/19.  The corresponding rises at MtGOX on those days were much smaller (the high was only 3/4 of the Nov/29 ATH).  To me, all these details (and common sense) are more consistent with China, rather than MtGOX, driving the November bubble.

Whether "Markus"/"Willy" was doing its thing with real dollars or with virtual "goxDollars", and whether its owner eventually got the money out of China, are separate questions.

The claim that *I* find absurd is that a single trader at MtGOX could pump the price up from 100$ to 1200$ over a whole month, all over he world, including the huge Chinese market -- and that the the price would stay at pumped-up levels, six months after MtGOX's collapse.