Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 2662. (Read 26711510 times)

IMHO, it is a bit illogical to suggest a 200K as the next ATH as we should either be in a top deceleration trend (1.1K to 20K to 69K to maybe 120-140K) or in a usage acceleration trend the peak should be much higher at, say, 500K. Basically, the push from decrease in issuance (block reward) should be smaller in each cycle, but at some point we can get into the S-curve in adoption, hence the possibility of a bigger number.

200K does not seem to fit any discernible pattern. Sure, it could happen, just based on the randomness.

EDIT: re ending the bear market..there are two schools of thought about it...one says that once the market is +20%, the bear market is over..another says that bear market continues until you are over prior ATH (I like this one more)...therefore, 30-40K would not be the bear market end, but an intermittent rally (just like in 2019 when we went to about 70% of prior ATH). I would welcome the rally to 68.9X0.7=48.23K anytime, though.

P.S. Gay x-mas card time soon! 

Some thoughts here. Funny how the doomiest and gloomiest forecasts always (well frequently, I'm a bit exaggerating) come true but the boldest and bulliest always get denied:

Did we reach $100k? no
ATH should happen only after a parabolic price increase! it turns out that not always
Bitcoin can't fall below the previous cycle's ATH? it just did
BTC cycle is exactly 4 years long, with ATH being reached in December? nope
Bear market can't end before the halving? true so far
We're going down to $9-10k this cycle? possible, can't be ruled out completely

So why can't Bitcoin just screw the bears now by breaking the pattern by going exponential and propelling itself into, say, $30-40k -ish area and ending bear market prematurely?  

I am not objecting to having CSW in the presentation.  I am objecting to the way that it was done... I think that it should have been way more denigrating of CSW, even though I agree with the ultimate punchline..   (so yeah.. maybe my criticism is largely stylistic in regards to how they made that substantive point).


Yes.. 11.5 minutes - not easy to listen to.. .


I can see that the guy is making some decent points.. but I have difficulties giving any benefit of the doubt to SBF (including that the presentation of SBF recognizing that SBF is talking out of both sides of his mouth.. and sure maybe SBF wants us to hate him.. the psychotic, flabby vegan and purported ethical altruist wannabe),

...and I also have some trouble with the Defi is fine talking point... , even though there is likely truth to the fact that SBF and even Alameda were paying back Defi loans while they were failing/refusing to pay back real world people and while they have so far been running off with the money..

and another thing that I have not been seeing too much is how various political donors are actually donating out their money rather than giving that money back to the (rightful owners) through the bankruptcy proceedings (for the creditors.. and the attorneys as was pointed out.. yeah attorneys make a lot and probably too much to sort through these kinds of quagmires of trying to get back money that can be gotten back, in theory.. or hopefully through the difficulties of the current system.. in which there are a lot of ways to criticize the current system.. but a siding with the criminal seems kind of strange.. even though yeah his attorney will need to do that at some point.. if the guy gets locked up or maybe he will choose to represent himself.. since SBF seems to think that he is so smart about presenting his issues (I mean lies) in the court of public opinion)... I know my last paragraph is rambling.. but fuck that guy SBF.. even though the video presentation does make some decent theoretical, factual and for the sake of argument points.

Explanation

Well, duh.


You consider it important to chime in to tell us about tether? 

 


FTFY  - by adding a cute lil pic


Yes.



If my maths and sciences are correct, that would be 1,000 pages of postenings.

the Sunday morning wall report


local times frames are reclaiming the 50ma support levels with a 50ma/200ma four hour crossing on the horizon
all boiling down to the last few weeks here...feeling moderately bullish at the moment
see how the chop goes towards EOY
jib is out...tighten those sheets...steady at the helm

dyor


4h




D

stronghands

Explanation

#haikuSunday

nothing else matters
its a fine day for hodlers
your keys, its your corn

the scammers will fail
rehypothecating corn
not understanding

twenty one million
thats all that will ever be
do not forget this

An interesting take, I agree. Especially the part where he says that CZ should similarly destroy Binance....calls it an act of effective altruism, lol.
I don't think people calling it fraud is defamation, though, since Mr. Ray (new CEO) already said that there were inappropriate actions.
At least one Dem senator (Durbin) said pretty much the same (albeit I disagree with his generalizations).
That guy doesn't know s-t about volatility. If he has concern about bitcoin volatility, how about META and NFLX, lol?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmwLkjQl-vY

One word about paying lawyers...I was a part of Enron unsecured creditors list (basically, stupidly bought a bit at a "bargain" $2-3).
The recovery there was pretty good-around 30-32%, so Mr. Ray achieved something.
Typically, stock holders receive something that is close to nothing and getting those funds at or close to the end of 2002-2003 recession allowed me to reinvest the proceeds close to the bottom.

Explanation

Two hundred thousand.
ATH in USD.
You know what to do.

#2025haiku

What do you do that brings so much Joy and Kindness into the world to make it better? You and the others, except take loans and throw papas cash into it?  You are in no position to talk shit about someone who did atleast SOMETHING .. Havent you heard do not keep your KOINS on Exchanges? Have them on DEX and see how long your funds last there hahahahah

That useless tosser. Why doesn't he take a hammer, smash one of the windows behind himself and jump the fuck out.

There are not many individuals throughout history I'd ever wish suicide on, but the likes of Hitler and SBF are exceptions.

He is Right you know. Could be better with the right people but now..

The Polish minds are on something other than playing football.

+1 to this!

$200,000+ will be an easy target in the next cycle. Adjacent spirals are roughly one order of magnitude (one extra zero) apart (see here for WO's very own spiral analysis showing this). This means that the next ATH is expected to be in the order of $500,000 and it will likely happen sometime in late 2025. Taking into account the FTX/Ukraine events and general logarithmic progression slowdown, I'd estimate $200,000 to be a pretty realistic next ATH. This will be followed by the usual dips and bounces, until the next one around 2029 that's going to be closer to $1M. You know when to buy (and when to strategically sell)...

The pattern is pretty clear. Yet many fail to see and make use of it due to greed and lack of patience. And for those not wanting to sell some corn at the cycle tops (to later BTFD), they can play safe, time their buys (now is a great opportunity), and simply DCA/HoDL, which has never failed anyone so far. Just set your targets and add time.