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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 2665. (Read 26711566 times)

legendary
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
sr. member
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Bitcoin market down due to FTX
sr. member
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2. An alternative possibility: In 2014, Mt Gox went out on Feb 24 when btc was at $546. Initially, btc was not affected much, paradoxically,  but eventually went down to $175 within about 10 mo.
Therefore, if FTX=MtGox (which is probably not the case), then the bottom would be 10 mo away (by Sept-Oct 2023) at a horrific number that i don't want to post, but you can do the math.
I currently give 10-20% chance to this scenario.



For me it seems irrelevant to compare with the 2014 situation, especially regarding the timing. We had the ATH in december 2013, it seems logical that we didn't get the final bottom 2-3 months after (in february or march 2014).  

When Mt Gox went out in 2014, we were approximately at "only" 50% down from the ATH. A the same time BTC did x100 up on 2013...  Mt Gox or not, regarding the different cycles, BTC will have continued to fall during (the whole?) 2013.

With your example, it mean we would get a Bottom almost 2 years after the previous ATH, or even 2,5years after if we consider that the bullish cycle ended in may 2021 (as we did a double top).
legendary
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legendary
Activity: 3948
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
The Bitcoin revolution - How it all began | DW Documentary
https://youtu.be/_gXAEdfIJN4

I watched the whole thing.. it’s about 42 minutes long, and the whole thing is decently good… except Holy fuck.. the way that Craig Wright was introduced into the video at around minute 30...  That was retarded to have a clip from him..  even though they pretty quickly debunked CSW’s claim to being Satoshi.. so the retarded part was ONLY about 1-2 minutes long.
copper member
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The Bitcoin revolution - How it all began | DW Documentary

https://youtu.be/_gXAEdfIJN4
legendary
Activity: 2380
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
copper member
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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k
"A picture is worth a thousand words"

Bitcoin Yearly Candles
hero member
Activity: 938
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bitcoin retard


waiting for the rest of the world to catch up to that wisdom
legendary
Activity: 2772
Merit: 2846
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
... so I have been continuing to find the situation quite irresistible to continue to have to rethink the allocation of cash towards BTC purchases, and even cash that I had considered to be completely removed from BTC purchasing considerations and even considering ways in which to maybe spend a bit less - or to defer some purchases that I may well have had otherwise made.... so some of my own behaviors are still quite surprising to my lil selfie.....
...


How did you get that pic?   Angry Angry Angry Angry Angry
legendary
Activity: 2772
Merit: 2846
... so I have been continuing to find the situation quite irresistible to continue to have to rethink the allocation of cash towards BTC purchases, and even cash that I had considered to be completely removed from BTC purchasing considerations and even considering ways in which to maybe spend a bit less - or to defer some purchases that I may well have had otherwise made.... so some of my own behaviors are still quite surprising to my lil selfie.....

...

legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Quote
Remember what you had been saying and what you had been arguing about never having to sell your BTC because you can just "earn from your BTC" and various bullshit like that?  Haven't some of those models been disproven to you? or at least undermined in recent times?

You could have still earned by selling calls throughout the bear market, but apart from that, you are right-it turned out that "yield" and bitcoin do not play nice and, perhaps, it was more likely from the get-go, considering the crazy attitudes of supposed "regulated" 'adults in the room'. Even plain English text of the documents did not help because, allegedly, there were other parts of the agreement in direct contradiction to "it's your funds" statement.

I actully read the Gemini "Earn" agreement and after that reading decided not to use it (because they said that they will loan your btc to third parties).
BTW, Ledger X (where you can sell calls on btc) survived FTX bankruptcy (so far), even though they were relatively recently bought by FTX.us

I agree with you.. there's a lot of "holy fucking shit" going on right now, and even relatively diligent people were in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Surely, I am not trying to say "I told you so" or even to suggest that some of those products to possibly earn or to use BTC as collateral or to place various bets with your BTC might not be able to mature in the future, but it is quite likely that through some of the recent events, some of us have been able to see and appreciate more concretely that sometimes there were hidden or obscure terms, sometimes the trusted third parties were not even following aspects of the terms (or maybe had a different interpretation of terms), and surely some folks are in better positions to negotiate exposure than others, but even the good negotiators might have gotten some indirect screwing of their lil selfies when their associates were engaging in some of the loosey goosey behaviors.  

I mentioned a few times that I have some financial entanglement with someone who was fucking around with Voyager..and who had engaged in some other risky (and even previously undisclosed) behaviors with some other third party entities so that I am still covering some of the aspects (and ongoing fallout) of those losses in ways that I would prefer not to.. .. but even though that person was fucking around with pretty high percentages of his/her total BTC and also high percentage of his/her total networth, the total amount of the loss... even if I were to assume all of his/her losses would still ONLY constitute less than 5-8% of my BTC wealth and even smaller if we are talking about my total networth.. so without too much pain, I can still cover some of the stupid-ass (or seemingly overly risky, sloppy and/or gambling) losses that the person was taking.. but currently I have no real serious plan to cover all of that bullshit... unless I die or something and then there would likely be some successorship type possibilities in place in which I may well end up covering all of those losses.. even though I likely would not give too many shits about some of the matters at that point...

I die first or the other person(s) die first.. can sometimes affect someone when there are some financial/business/contractual entanglements and when people that you know and associate with engage in risky and/or gambling behaviors... even if you thought you had some pretty decent grasps of their personalities or what they were doing or would do in x situation.


Didn't even know amerika had a soccer team.

Did they have to do anything special to get there?
Where? WC?
They had to win qualifications...and then, they had to qualify from the group (which Germany, for example, failed to do), so they did OK.

How did they even get a team?

Did they just stick a bunch of players together like they do for the basketball and hockey matches in the Olympics?

You must not know nuttin, Hueristic.  

Since 'merica is such a "fair" place, there was drawing of straws across the whole "eligible" population* of the country to assemble the team, and then they had try-outs thereafter.  

You need to keep up with current events a wee bit MOAR better! #justsaying.    Angry Angry Angry Angry

*a cuestionario was required to be filled out and answered which included to "describe what is football".. which was used to weed down the number of eligibles.
legendary
Activity: 2380
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 2617
Far, Far, Far Right Thug
That 18 year old Australian came SO close to scoring in the last 30 seconds.
What a shame.

Bastard Argentinians. Hopefully Netherlands kick them out on Friday.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


Didn't even know amerika had a soccer team.

Did they have to do anything special to get there?

Where? WC?
They had to win qualifications...and then, they had to qualify from the group (which Germany, for example, failed to do), so they did OK.

How did they even get a team?

Did they just stick a bunch of players together like they do for the basketball and hockey matches in the Olympics?
legendary
Activity: 3990
Merit: 4597


Didn't even know amerika had a soccer team.

Did they have to do anything special to get there?

Where? WC?
They had to win qualifications...and then, they had to qualify from the group (which Germany, for example, failed to do), so they did OK.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it


Didn't even know amerika had a soccer team.

Did they have to do anything special to get there?
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