proposed regs from Lawsky
http://www.dfs.ny.gov/about/press2014/pr1407171-vc.pdf
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26735. (Read 26609613 times)
July 17, 2014, 09:04:54 AM
July 17, 2014, 09:00:52 AM
Maybe I'm going to look back in one year from now (or even 6 months)
July 17, 2014, 09:00:16 AM
July 17, 2014, 08:39:45 AM
Lift off everywhere except for Stamp 
Traders at Stamp has bought thousands of coins in the $610 area, but these same traders seem more or less uninterested in moving the price up above this level. 
Traders at Stamp has bought thousands of coins in the $610 area, but these same traders seem more or less uninterested in moving the price up above this level. Why should they? If they would snap up all selling pressure on this level, price would move up by other buyers...
July 17, 2014, 08:33:00 AM
Lift off everywhere except for Stamp Traders at Stamp has bought thousands of coins in the $610 area, but these same traders seem more or less uninterested in moving the price up above this level.
Traders at Stamp has bought thousands of coins in the $610 area, but these same traders seem more or less uninterested in moving the price up above this level. 
July 17, 2014, 08:32:44 AM
muahahhaha, the worldbank found out the truth about bitcoin:
bitcoin is a "naturally occuring ponzi"
http://www.coindesk.com/world-bank-report-bitcoin-naturally-occurring-ponzi/
man those "naturally-occurring-central-bankers" are funny....
bitcoin is a "naturally occuring ponzi"
http://www.coindesk.com/world-bank-report-bitcoin-naturally-occurring-ponzi/
man those "naturally-occurring-central-bankers" are funny....
July 17, 2014, 08:19:06 AM
My bear-masked estimates are
are
are
So you really think we'll see something much worse than the Mtgox crash in 2014 with a probability of over 50%?
Is that realistic? Do you have something specific in mind?
).Those were my BEAR-MASKED estimates, just from 'intuition', with the bear side of my brain turned on and the bull side turned off.
But yes, it is quite possible that the price will crash to 100$ or lower. MtGOX actually did not have much of an impact; for one thing it was mostly a Western problem that did not affect the Chinese speculators very much. The only significant impact of MtGOX was on Feb/10 when Mark announced a "bug in the protocol", but price immediately recovered when the claim was dismissed.
The really bad events were the PBoC decrees, and rumors about them. The correlation of Chinese bad/good news and large drops/rises is quite obvious. They caused the fall in early December, and several large drops in 2014, reaching briefly down to 350$. The recovery in late December was due to Huobi and then OKCoin finding workarounds to the decree.
If the price dropped to 350$ on unfounded rumors, promptly dismissedm, it is easy to predict that, if China were to take a much harder stance on bitcoin (and there is no way of telling whether they will) the price would surely fall to well below 350$.
How much below that? It is hard to tell what would be the price if China had never entered the picture, but I am convinced that without China the 2013 rallies (April, October, and November) would not have happened, and the price today would be below 100$. That is where my guesstimate '40% chance of below 100$ in 2014' above came from.
July 17, 2014, 08:11:22 AM
Lift off over in China now
July 17, 2014, 08:05:10 AM
I see + tend ...
Next hour $620.
I can bet on this
I bet 0.0001BTC
Next hour $620.
I can bet on this
I bet 0.0001BTC
July 17, 2014, 08:00:15 AM
July 17, 2014, 07:37:59 AM
My bear-masked estimates are
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
Is there more than one Jorge??
And I refused to bet on those probabilities at the time, too.
BTC was $457 that day. Just imagine Jorge how much money you would have made if you bought then! Its still not too late, there are plenty of tickets available for the BTC ride of a lifetime!!
July 17, 2014, 07:34:17 AM
It's nice to see that in between the dumping the price still slightly goes up. It's just nowhere near enough. There is still some buying pressure. But how how much longer...these dumps just seem to go on and on.
Well, the support seems at least pretty strong. People do seem willing to buy. It's amazing, we may be at a deep valley where everybody would have liked to have bought their stash, if we look back in a year... Or maybe only a couple of months!!!
Funny.. I woke up this morning and had the same feeling. Actually, I was thinking to myself.. it's been hovering around here for a while.. maybe ~ $600 is the new floor.. the new ~$100 where it was last year. Maybe I'm going to look back in one year from now (or even 6 months) and think, why oh why didn't i stock up then.. so i bought what i could today.. waiting for next paycheck at end of the month and buying more. I hope the price doesn't go up too much in the meantime.
July 17, 2014, 07:25:59 AM
My bear-masked estimates are
are
are
So you really think we'll see something much worse than the Mtgox crash in 2014 with a probability of over 50%?
Is that realistic? Do you have something specific in mind?
July 17, 2014, 07:04:21 AM
My bear-masked estimates are
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
Is there more than one Jorge??
And I refused to bet on those probabilities at the time, too.
July 17, 2014, 07:00:16 AM
July 17, 2014, 06:45:49 AM
It's nice to see that in between the dumping the price still slightly goes up. It's just nowhere near enough. There is still some buying pressure. But how how much longer...these dumps just seem to go on and on.
Well, the support seems at least pretty strong. People do seem willing to buy. It's amazing, we may be at a deep valley where everybody would have liked to have bought their stash, if we look back in a year... Or maybe only a couple of months!!!
July 17, 2014, 06:37:39 AM
More desperation please. My CCMF-Indicator slightly turns a bit bearish. That's good. Please sell more and be more inpatient. Bitcoin does not what nearly everybody has expected. Pseudo-cataclysm incoming.
July 17, 2014, 06:34:35 AM
It's nice to see that in between the dumping the price still slightly goes up. It's just nowhere near enough. There is still some buying pressure. But how how much longer...these dumps just seem to go on and on.
July 17, 2014, 06:04:22 AM
Explains a lot. I'm suddenly a little critical of you, it's less your fault your stuck in your belief-structure at age 64.
Keep in mind that people at a rather progressed age (no offense
) have seen a lot and watched new fads fade as quickly as they appeared. Of course some of the new technologies that emerge eventually become successful, but there's no way of telling which ones are the successful ones before actually see the outcome! July 17, 2014, 06:00:48 AM
a chart from Polish market. (it is kinda cool as it is updated every minute on same image
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