Yes it is unleashing a huge stash of the Winklevoss' coins.. but NOT TO MARKET. Only to customers of the ETF. = No effect on the market.
Not until the sell all shares and need more coins to satisfy demand,, will we see an effect.
At least, that is my take on it anyway. I stand to be correct if wrong.
Guys and girls - this situation is going to resolve itself just like the situation in the 400s. We bounced around high to low and mid to low 400s for many weeks. Finally, there just were no more sellers. None. And once that happened, the bulls ran wild.
Well, that is what we are seeing again. No buying, but less and less selling. So unless sellers start selling more soon, then the selling will eventually slow to a crawl again. At that time, our only way forward will be up.
Now this could take another week or so or more - who knows - its all just "speculation" that we love.
But, me, I'm watching the sellers, not the buyers, for clues on how low this goes and where the local bottom really is.
Yeah I think there are just too many bulls expecting a bubble, can't go up when everyone is a bull unless there is a huge influx of new people getting into bitcoin. That's going to happen eventually but not as fast as people are thinking. Some impatient buyers have already sold and I see the number of bears increase again which is positive because we need them as fuel for the price to go up.
I don't expect a bubble any time soon but I do see 800-850 in the cards.
there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring...
Will the Winklevoss etf mean people are buying new bitcoin though? Won't they just be buying bitcoin the Winklevii bought years ago? (this sounds wrong but I'm too tired to work out why). I mean, where currently someone would have to buy bitcoin on an exchange, with the etf, they will be able to buy from via the etf (which doesn't have to buy any more coins). So the etf would have a negative effect on market demand (for the current markets) by this logic. i.e. essentially it is unleashing a huge supply of the Winklevoss coins.
Let's think hard here. I mean REALLY stretch our brains. The Winklevoss have spent LOTS of time and money creating an ETF. Why did they do ths? Because if this ETF is anything like GLD, it could dramatically increase the price of BTC over a few years. So the Winklevoss could:
1. Sell their coins to ETF purchasers, which will leave the BTC exchange rate more or less unchanged and result in the Winklevoss owning no coins. At that point the BTC exchange rate will start rising but the Winklevoss will not benefit b/c they own no coins.
2. Keep their coins, forcing ETF purchases to eventually hit the open market pushing up the BTC exchange rate and making their stash much more valuable.
Hmm... which will it be?
