Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26937.

Colonel Panic

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Quote from: dreamspark on July 04, 2014, 08:32:24 AM

Quote from: Cassius on July 04, 2014, 08:25:16 AM

But seriously - the dumps and hesitancy to rise despite all the good news. There has got to be a limit to the amount sellers can sell (weak hands, strong hands argument).
So what is going on? Where are all the sellers coming from? Twitchy day-traders or early adopters with big stashes taking advantage of better liquidity?
Anyone have any insights, ideally backed up with some evidence like days destroyed or exchange data?

My thoughts always gravitate to it being mostly to do with people just making a bit of extra money but more importantly more coins.

There are very few investments where you aren't trying to come out with a bigger pile of fiat, in general when you trade a normal stock you tend to buy a position and then sell (or buy if you were short) and leave with the profit.

With Bitcoin however people are trying to make more of the 'stock' than fiat (obviously a generalization but can you draw any parallels?) a lot of people are also all in in terms of how much they are willing to invest, to make more BTC and not more fiat without leverage you have to sell and buy back at a lower price. I seriously think this is one of the reasons people are so willing to sell their BTC for the chance to buy it back lower even though the majority of them would have been better to buy and hold.

Also, occasional and opportunist traders aren't keeping their fiat on the exchanges, so if there's sudden action the most efficient way (in fact the only way fast enough) to get money on is with btc. For example with Silk Road last year - when the news came out everyone saw there'd be a buying opportunity, but the only way to buy was to send over btc and sell first. You miss the first hour of the move (the price of security), but can still turn a buck.

edit: The implication of course being that when we finally get a "grown up" insured exchange, there will be less "flash crash" pressure because fiat will be happily left pre-placed

ChartBuddy

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keithers

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This is the land of wolves now & you're not a wolf

I didn't think that we would see too much of a sell of on a holiday. I understand that BTC is worldwide, and that USA doesn't own the whole market obviously, but typically on today, people are out doing other things than being glued to their computers buying and selling Biitcoin...

roslinpl

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In my country Friday is almost gone and price didn't went above 1950zł today ...

Last time we have seen >$700 was in Janurary, isn't?

CoinDox

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I love you all (well most of you), but the quality of this thread... has... well... you know...

And before you say to yourself: "Then why are you here!?" To that I say, same reason you are, I am a glutton for punishment.

Spaceman_Spiff

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Quote from: KFR on July 04, 2014, 02:24:44 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on July 04, 2014, 02:04:48 PM

Quote from: Torque on July 04, 2014, 01:30:59 PM

Nope, don't even try debating with Oda directly on bitcoin's long term potential. Not worth the breath. I'll stop short of calling Oda an outright troll, but shortsighted permabear is adaquate enough of a label.

You string words together, but there is no thought at all behind them, huh?

You have very clearly no idea of what my ideas are about the long term prospect of Bitcoin. But in a way I'm happy you posted - you're an excellent example of what I described in my post right above: you're one of those in here for whom any perceived opposition to the only possible outcome of the million dollar coin must be met with the utmost contempt ("permabear", "troll", "shortsighted").

Never let facts or reasoning get in the way of a good dream.

So you treat their contempt with... contempt? Wink

If only ultrabullish posts are never questioned here, and everything else is assaulted, this will become a very shallow and boring thread indeed, inhabited only by echo-chambering ultrabulls, and complete troll-bears who like to incite the ultrabulls.

oda.krell

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Quote from: KFR on July 04, 2014, 02:24:44 PM

So you treat their contempt with... contempt? ;):P

Good point.

Time for me to chill out a bit and take a break :)

KFR

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Per ardua ad luna

Quote from: oda.krell on July 04, 2014, 02:04:48 PM

Quote from: Torque on July 04, 2014, 01:30:59 PM

Nope, don't even try debating with Oda directly on bitcoin's long term potential. Not worth the breath. I'll stop short of calling Oda an outright troll, but shortsighted permabear is adaquate enough of a label.

You string words together, but there is no thought at all behind them, huh?

You have very clearly no idea of what my ideas are about the long term prospect of Bitcoin. But in a way I'm happy you posted - you're an excellent example of what I described in my post right above: you're one of those in here for whom any perceived opposition to the only possible outcome of the million dollar coin must be met with the utmost contempt ("permabear", "troll", "shortsighted").

Never let facts or reasoning get in the way of a good dream.

So you treat their contempt with... contempt? Wink

oda.krell

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Quote from: dgarcia on July 04, 2014, 02:07:55 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on July 04, 2014, 02:04:48 PM

Quote from: Torque on July 04, 2014, 01:30:59 PM

Nope, don't even try debating with Oda directly on bitcoin's long term potential. Not worth the breath. I'll stop short of calling Oda an outright troll, but shortsighted permabear is adaquate enough of a label.

You string words together, but there is no thought at all behind them, huh?

You have very clearly no idea of what my ideas are about the long term prospect of Bitcoin. But in a way I'm happy you posted - you're an excellent example of what I described in my post right above: you're one of those in here for whom any perceived opposition to the only possible outcome of the million dollar coin must be met with the utmost contempt ("permabear", "troll", "shortsighted").

Never let facts or reasoning get in the way of a good dream.

Could you please link me your long term ideas? Anytime I'm interested in non-trolling alternative views...

I avoid technical predictions that go further into the future than a month or two, and definitely can't provide a price target for 2015 based on them. Otherwise you get silly threads like the loglinear extrapolation threads that present a (debatable, but itself worthy of consideration) model, and then are full of people tripping over each other misinterpreting and misapplying those models: "We are now 0.4 log delta below the trendline, which means: we can only go up!".

I wrote what you could call a post on fundamentals here, dismissing the idea that Bitcoin "only has speculative value", arriving at an absolute lower bound of around $2000 in case the rather likely scenario I describe becomes true (that Bitcoin commercial transfer volume will be at least as high as that of Paypal last year.)

dgarcia

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Quote from: oda.krell on July 04, 2014, 02:04:48 PM

Quote from: Torque on July 04, 2014, 01:30:59 PM

Nope, don't even try debating with Oda directly on bitcoin's long term potential. Not worth the breath. I'll stop short of calling Oda an outright troll, but shortsighted permabear is adaquate enough of a label.

You string words together, but there is no thought at all behind them, huh?

You have very clearly no idea of what my ideas are about the long term prospect of Bitcoin. But in a way I'm happy you posted - you're an excellent example of what I described in my post right above: you're one of those in here for whom any perceived opposition to the only possible outcome of the million dollar coin must be met with the utmost contempt ("permabear", "troll", "shortsighted").

Never let facts or reasoning get in the way of a good dream.

Could you please link me your long term ideas? Anytime I'm interested in non-trolling alternative views...

oda.krell

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Quote from: Torque on July 04, 2014, 01:30:59 PM

Nope, don't even try debating with Oda directly on bitcoin's long term potential. Not worth the breath. I'll stop short of calling Oda an outright troll, but shortsighted permabear is adaquate enough of a label.

You string words together, but there is no thought at all behind them, huh?

You have very clearly no idea of what my ideas are about the long term prospect of Bitcoin. But in a way I'm happy you posted - you're an excellent example of what I described in my post right above: you're one of those in here for whom any perceived opposition to the only possible outcome of the million dollar coin must be met with the utmost contempt ("permabear", "troll", "shortsighted").

Never let facts or reasoning get in the way of a good dream.

ChartBuddy

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N12

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Quote from: oda.krell on July 04, 2014, 01:45:39 PM

Sure. There is a constant low level, nah, who am I kidding - not at all low level background noise in this forum, "analysis" that applies the crudest forms of approximations and extrapolations in one way, and one way only: to find justifications for why the only possible outcome is a per coin value somewhere north of a million dollar (or perhaps $100k, if you're really bearish).

By itself, that's perhaps just wishful thinking. But in combination with the constant droning reminder "never sell, always hold", I consider it more malicious than just delusional.

To be clear: I don't rule out substantially higher valuations. I just despise the fake certainty with which those predictions are presented by the usual suspects, and the aggressiveness with which less optimistic predictions are met. The crypto capitalization event itself dosn't need to be a Ponzie, but a subset of users in here sure are trying their best to make it look like one.

oda.krell

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Quote from: aminorex on July 04, 2014, 11:42:58 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on July 04, 2014, 03:28:15 AM

I hate

Now I feel polluted for having read your post.

Your puerile contempt means squat. Try facts and sound reasoning next time.

Told you earlier: you went from 'somewhat insightful' to 'cheerleader' in less than half a year. But whatever suits your financial decisions.

Quote from: Peter R on July 04, 2014, 12:02:20 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on July 04, 2014, 03:28:15 AM

Quote

...try using http://worldbitcoinnetwork.com/BitcoinPriceModel-Alpha.html

God, I hate that site. Right at the center of the snake oil infrastructure of Bitcoin.

This entire circlejerk about the 200 Trillion Coin is so intellectually lazy and deceiving, I personally believe it to be the least ethical side of Bitcoin as a social phenomenon. Yes. Worse than Mtgox, SR and Leah McGrath's doxing of an old dude who had nothing to do with Bitcoin.

Oda, can you explain this comment in more detail?

Sure. There is a constant low level, nah, who am I kidding - not at all low level background noise in this forum, "analysis" that applies the crudest forms of approximations and extrapolations in one way, and one way only: to find justifications for why the only possible outcome is a per coin value somewhere north of a million dollar (or perhaps $100k, if you're really bearish).

By itself, that's perhaps just wishful thinking. But in combination with the constant droning reminder "never sell, always hold", I consider it more malicious than just delusional.

To be clear: I don't rule out substantially higher valuations. I just despise the fake certainty with which those predictions are presented by the usual suspects, and the aggressiveness with which less optimistic predictions are met. The crypto capitalization event itself dosn't need to be a Ponzie, but a subset of users in here sure are trying their best to make it look like one.

CoinHamster

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฿ ฿ ฿ ฿ ฿

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 04, 2014, 01:05:03 PM

I still firmly believe we will be trading above 800 next week.

resistance is futile

typo: ~~800~~ => 600 Cool

Torque

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Quote from: Peter R on July 04, 2014, 12:02:20 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on July 04, 2014, 03:28:15 AM

Quote

...try using http://worldbitcoinnetwork.com/BitcoinPriceModel-Alpha.html

God, I hate that site. Right at the center of the snake oil infrastructure of Bitcoin.

This entire circlejerk about the 200 Trillion Coin is so intellectually lazy and deceiving, I personally believe it to be the least ethical side of Bitcoin as a social phenomenon. Yes. Worse than Mtgox, SR and Leah McGrath's doxing of an old dude who had nothing to do with Bitcoin.

Oda, can you explain this comment in more detail?

Nope, don't even try debating with Oda directly on bitcoin's long term potential. Not worth the breath. I'll stop short of calling Oda an outright troll, but shortsighted permabear is adaquate enough of a label. People who only can calculate to or conceive of the bitcoin market's next hour, or tomorrow at best, will never be able to conceive of what the world of Bitcoin would look like 5 years from now, 10, or even 20. And day traders could care less anyway, all they care about is how to make their next $100 on a swing.

I have gone back and extensively read forum threads from 2-3 years ago, with bears screaming that bitcoin wouldn't make it to $200/btc even in 10 years, and anyone that disagreed with them was an absolute fool. An utterly pathetic lack of vision from the bear camp, and it will always be that way. Also, just try calling them out on it years later... they have vanished from the scene by then. Wonder why?

aminorex

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Quote from: kodtycoon on July 04, 2014, 05:24:08 AM

Quote from: rpietila on July 04, 2014, 05:20:52 AM

500 should hold for the uptrend to remain in force.

will it go close to that?

There is no substantive resistance between 440 and 650, on the basis of historical trades. A little around 600 maybe. so much for technicals.

However, on a fundamental, forward- looking basis, below 600 all it takes is a sneeze and panic compels buying. So no, it won't go close to that.

dgarcia

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Quote from: tarmi on July 04, 2014, 01:18:05 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 04, 2014, 01:05:03 PM

I still firmly believe we will be trading above 800 next week.

resistance is futile

Even though I'm usually a huge, fucking pessimist I believe this, too.

These drops from the resistance level have as much soul as Berlusconi.

that is because you have never seen live one of his private parties. Berlusconi is one funny mother fucker.

meaning, we still have to see the real dump.

The devil makes the hottest parties ;-D

tarmi

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: adamstgBit on July 04, 2014, 01:05:03 PM

I still firmly believe we will be trading above 800 next week.

resistance is futile

Even though I'm usually a huge, fucking pessimist I believe this, too.

These drops from the resistance level have as much soul as Berlusconi.

that is because you have never seen live one of his private parties. Berlusconi is one funny mother fucker.

the real panic dump is yet to be seen.

adamstgBit

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Trusted Bitcoiner

I still firmly believe we will be trading above 800 next week.

resistance is futile

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 26937. (Read 26719591 times)