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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27042. (Read 26708702 times)

legendary
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Nice huobi! Dump it!  Grin Grin

I don't think that huobi has got anything to do with that :-)


Price is just shaking :-) typical.
sr. member
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Merit: 250
Nice huobi! Dump it!  Grin Grin
legendary
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
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Merit: 1003
Another interesting tidbit from China:

http://www.btc38.com/btc/altgeneral/2329.html
香港比特币大会小组讨论——比特币在中国:现在与未来
Hong Kong Bitcoin Conference Panel Discussion - Bitcoin in China: Present and Future
2014-06-25 13:50:26
Quote
Xu Star (OKCoin CEO): "This example of it: the central bank issued a circular said banks can not support Bitcoin transaction, but the bank itself also needs to make money, so they will help us to circumvent this policy to continue to cooperate.

Mining has done well, a lot of mines, China occupies 30-40% of the market, so that China has great influence, if you can force the operator to come together is very powerful. China now needs more cooperation, whether you like it or not, China will be an important role in the field of Bitcoin. Once over the front, regulators will have more responsibilities and tasks."
[ Google translation ]
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 587
Space Lord
magicaltux is back on business twitting again.
guess thats why bitcoin price tanked lately Grin

https://twitter.com/MagicalTux

That about sums it up, yeah Cheesy
hero member
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Merit: 1003
This Chinese article seems to have an interview with Bobby Lee (CEO of BTC-China) about shady practices of exchanges, in particular leverage trading, and the "five exchanges" pledge to clean up their act,and the fact that Huobi and OKCoin backtracked on that pledge a month after it. (Was that the cause of the late May rally?)

http://www.btc38.com/btc/altgeneral/2330.html
李启元:融资融币是“不健康的恶意做空”
Bobby Lee: finance financial currency [ leverage trading? ] is "unhealthy malicious short"

2014-06-25 14:00:40
Quote
Bitcoin Conference in Hong Kong (Inside Bitcoins HK Conference) 6 月 24 -25 days held on, CEO Bitcoin China (btcChina) trading platform Lǐ Qǐ Yuán (Bobby Lee), on the Bitcoin currency finance financial business, the media, said: Financial currency financing is unhealthy malicious short. When the media asked "A lot of players think: Prices fell short because someone maliciously" is justified when Bobby Lee agreed.

Bobby Lee said: finance financial currency [ leverage trading? fractional banking? ] is unhealthy thing, although some people want to have this speculative function, but does have irresponsible (players).

[ ... ]
 
Bobby Lee also clear said: Chinese law does not prohibit bitcoins. But he also believes that sophisticated financial institutions, various types of transactions are highly regulated, and regulators clearly Bitcoin transactions done enough: You see some of the sophisticated financial institutions, they are monitored very powerful, banks, ah, ah equity line , on the margin there are very strict supervision. But now there is no regulatory bitcoin, some companies let finance financial currency, it is very irresponsible.

Bobby Lee further explained: you put the coins to me, I might secretly loaned out to others, to sell the price down, then later the price down, buy him back, he earned a lot of money. So if he does not make money, he bought it back, then you become a deficit, so the entire finance financial currency is risky.
 
He referred to the "finance financial currency" business, financial transactions in the traditional model, is not uncommon, but bitcoin regulatory environment compared to traditional regulatory margin trading business as a whole is more stringent.
 
China Bitcoin currency financing business financing, generally rise at the end of 2013. The business expanded investor's trading varieties, but also increased frequency of transactions. But the business model, in fact, not new. In the stock, commodity, foreign exchange and other trading ...... varieties, like business has been very mature.
 
However, due to certain factors, early May 2014, China bitcoin five trading platform (Huobi.com, BTC-China, OKCoin, CHBTC, BtcTrade), industry self-regulation was jointly issued a statement bulletin "pause currency finance financial business." But the reason paused, apparently considering various basis and is not entirely consistent. Feedback from investors point of view, it seems to convey some kind of disagreement: Support was expressed for self-declaration also expressed opposition or contempt.
 
Within a month's time, however short-lived, self-declared after the release, Huobi.com and OKCoin has restored financial currency financing business. This makes the self-declared before, looks a bit awkward.
 
The key issue seems to still fall on the interpretation of financial currency financing business itself, Bobby Lee expressed concern: national governments also have ideas on this matter, and this is part of their reason to suppress bitcoin. So we have not done this thing, and we have been very bitcoin China abide by the rules, do not play with the financing of financial credits, but it does have a number of other exchanges in the mess.
 
Known financial commentator Xiao Lei is expressed similar concerns, he believes, currency financing business financing can be short, the equivalent of financial derivatives, if not the bank for hosting all of the funds entrusted in the trading platform hosting, it is prone to illegal fund-raising and other financial risks: "In fact, greater market fluctuations in the volume of business financing when the financial currency, fee income trading platform to bring Bitcoin is also very impressive, and the opening of business finance financial currency trading platform for bitcoins it is less risky. '
 
Xiao Lei said: At present the central bank's financial attributes bitcoin completely stifled Bitcoin sharply reduced liquidity for Bitcoin trading platform has a greater impact, however small this event for Bitcoin itself influence.
 
About Bitcoin regulation, often involving real-name system, anti-money laundering, the approving authority units ...... so a series of rules developed. Interpretation of the status quo trading platform differences arise, it is understandable today. I believe that with industrial development and in-depth study of the legal experts, the future trading patterns and regulatory bottom line will be more clear.
legendary
Activity: 4242
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You're never too old to think young.
button meme

Can I push the pink "button" with my tongue? Will it moan?
legendary
Activity: 1260
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magicaltux is back on business twitting again.
guess thats why bitcoin price tanked lately Grin

https://twitter.com/MagicalTux
legendary
Activity: 1456
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This is the land of wolves now & you're not a wolf


I want to push the red one, not because I am a bear, but because it looks like the Staples "Easy" button!
legendary
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sr. member
Activity: 952
Merit: 281
The bear trap is worse than I expected.  Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

me too, but on the other hand, isn't it quite obvious this is a bear trap?

I mean, you have to be pretty stupid to sell right now.


No, it's not. Bear traps are typically short lived events on high volume, not a slow, low volume, never before seen breaking of a trend where every major indicator reverses.
^^^^
Evidence the bear trap is working
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 251
Looks like we are going through another lull in pricing.   I hope we aren't following the trend of when we somewhat recovered after our descent from over $1,000.   Remember that, when we came back and hit around $800, only to fall more after?

I think the market as a whole is a ton stronger now, but we will see...
There was a lot of negativity and fear back then, supported by news of MtGox insolvency. I wouldn't count on it happening now.
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1001
This is the land of wolves now & you're not a wolf
Looks like we are going through another lull in pricing.   I hope we aren't following the trend of when we somewhat recovered after our descent from over $1,000.   Remember that, when we came back and hit around $800, only to fall more after?

I think the market as a whole is a ton stronger now, but we will see...
legendary
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Trusted Bitcoiner
legendary
Activity: 4242
Merit: 5039
You're never too old to think young.
member
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Merit: 10
and it will go up again...

what a silly bear trap the people fall for =D
legendary
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 4242
Merit: 5039
You're never too old to think young.
One thing I like about bears -- they're always looking forward to an opportunity to buy.
Unlike bulls, who are mostly looking for an opportunity to sell.

With all due respects, I think you have that backwards.

Bulls see a dip as an opportunity to buy more coins to hold, while bears see a rally as an opportunity to sell and take a profit in fiat.

Most people probably consider me to be a Bitcoin bull, and I have no intention of selling in the foreseeable future. The closest I come to selling is purchasing goods and services with bitcoins.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
i.e. today I discount OKCoin volume by a factor of 10, and Huobi by factor 5. It's coincidence that today they add up to roughly the same value, btw.

Those factors seem to be completely arbitrary. I think the argument can be made that some of the exchanges fake their order book to inflate their apparent volume, in order to appear more liquid than they are, but that argument could be made for btc-e and a lot of the altcoin exchanges too.

The exchanges that run without fees should be expected to get a much larger volume of all trades, since you can dump large walls and buy back $1 later. So if you've arrived at the same volume for western and eastern exchanges, I think your discount factor is too big.

I'm sure someone more mathematically inclined could at least do a preliminary analysis of the order books so find out how much is "too" random, or if many trades have a common divisor, or other obivous methods. I doubt the cheating is very sophisticated. Has someone done this?

Note that I don't buy the claim by finex that they really cut *all* ties with stamp, so some of the finex volume is likely to be a duplicate of stamp volume, so total western USD volume is possibly too high.

I believe I read some representative from Finex somewhere saying "we will begin to slowly cut our ties to Stamp, so I think you are completely right there. They still push a lot of trades onto Stamp's order book. The question is how much.

In summary, on a day like today I consider, at least by volume, the "Chinese" influence about as big as the "Western" influence.

A bit arbitrary, don't you think?

See my response to miz4r.

The two assumptions of my method ("there is one exchange whose volume is the gold standard", "there is a metric that allows me to normalize other exchanges' volume to that standard") are arbitrary, or at least: debatable. The numbers that follow from the two assumptions are not.
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