Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27046.

Miz4r

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

Quote from: oda.krell on June 25, 2014, 07:40:46 AM

Quote from: TERA on June 25, 2014, 07:08:50 AM

Quote from: N12 on June 25, 2014, 07:03:35 AM

Quote from: TERA on June 25, 2014, 07:02:34 AM

My point is that the Chinese probably have about 10x more influence over Bitcoin than this auction as they still trump the entire 'west' in volume on EACH of their exchanges.

How real is volume that is generated by 0% fees? We have to account for that.

Personally, I've only observed Bitstamp leading and Huobi following it reluctantly. I don't know why some perceive the opposite.

I'm guessing enough of it is real to be significant - perhaps 20-50%. Even at just 20% it is still equal to the west, which makes it highly significant. Also, there are frequently several 500-1000BTC walls moving around the order book - those can't be faked, meaning that there are in fact players with millions of dollars (worth of btc or yuan) playing on these exchanges, which leads to belief in at least some legitimacy in the volume.

I don't like the idea of thinking of it as "fake" volume, but I do believe it needs to be heavily "discounted" for purposes of volume analysis.

Based on some (admittedly rather crude, please don't ask) method I employ, today's calculation for example would look as follows:

4400 (stamp) + 3000 (btce) + 5400 (finex) = ~13k "Western USD volume"

43000/10 (ok) + 29000/5 (huo) + 3000 (btcchn) = ~13k "Chinese volume"

i.e. today I discount OKCoin volume by a factor of 10, and Huobi by factor 5. It's coincidence that today they add up to roughly the same value, btw.

Note that I don't buy the claim by finex that they really cut *all* ties with stamp, so some of the finex volume is likely to be a duplicate of stamp volume, so total western USD volume is possibly too high. On the other hand, it doesn't include EUR (and other currencies) volume yet.

In summary, on a day like today I consider, at least by volume, the "Chinese" influence about as big as the "Western" influence.

How did you arrive at those percentages that 90% of OKcoin's volume should be discounted and 80% of Huobi's? Seems kinda arbitrary to me. Why not 50% or 30%?

empowering

legendary

Activity: 1078

Merit: 1441

Ivanhoe

hero member

Activity: 841

Merit: 1000

Bulls and bears at this moment

Dragonkiller

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 250

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Available Now!

Bear troll and bull troll trolling each other. Perfect Tongue

simmo77

sr. member

Activity: 373

Merit: 250

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 25, 2014, 08:21:45 AM

Quote from: blatchcorn on June 25, 2014, 05:52:00 AM

The bear trap is worse than I expected. Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

It is good for sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

Well, I'm holding, but want to buy some more so I've just sent some more money to the exchange.... so you can just about guarantee a recovery very soon (before my account gets credited, as usual) Roll Eyes

blatchcorn

sr. member

Activity: 952

Merit: 281

Quote from: fonzie on June 25, 2014, 08:24:42 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 25, 2014, 08:21:45 AM

Quote from: blatchcorn on June 25, 2014, 05:52:00 AM

The bear trap is worse than I expected. Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

As well as it could crash to 80$ ANY TIME

LOL I cannot believe you are falling for this perfectly timed bear trap. It is so obvious

fonzie

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Moderator

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 25, 2014, 08:21:45 AM

Quote from: blatchcorn on June 25, 2014, 05:52:00 AM

The bear trap is worse than I expected. Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

As well as it could crash to 80$ ANY TIME

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3948

Merit: 11416

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: blatchcorn on June 25, 2014, 05:52:00 AM

The bear trap is worse than I expected. Feel sorry for everyone selling right now

Currently, at the moment, as I type, it is good for sellers b/c BTC prices are going down.. and it is good for these sellers, so long as they get back in before the market reverses and continues on its likely upward trajectory, which could happen at any time.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3948

Merit: 11416

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: Dragonkiller on June 25, 2014, 05:31:23 AM

Quote from: tarmi on June 25, 2014, 05:25:48 AM

Quote from: Dragonkiller on June 25, 2014, 05:16:31 AM

Quote from: tarmi on June 25, 2014, 05:11:02 AM

Quote from: upupup on June 25, 2014, 05:03:35 AM

Quote from: tarmi on June 25, 2014, 04:43:28 AM

Quote from: solex on June 25, 2014, 04:37:35 AM

Quote from: mmitech on June 25, 2014, 04:16:49 AM

what is happening now is a rally between holders to sell without causing any panic, the book order is really thin with few thousands BTC at the Bid side while there is more than 12 million coins out there, do the math.

11 million as Satoshi is in for the long haul.

Auction is only two days away, so it is quite feasible that coins are being dumped to depress the market "reference" price ahead of bidding.

depressing? is that the right word?

if you are not willing to pay the market price and dumping coins on the market to bid lower...well, then the current market price is not right.

let us see then how much are they willing to pay.

I say 500.

I say its the most stupid forecast and explanation I ever heard.

well, it is even more stupid to think that someone is dumping coins to depress the "reference" price.

What is stupid about dumping coins to depress the reference point? There is nothing stupid about that.

you can manipulate the "reference" price, but how do you manipulate sealed bids?

what happens if you win the auction with 400 $ bid, or if there is not enough interest to buy the coins at all?

By making the assumption that the sealed bids have a relationship with the market price.

HELLO..... Of course sealed bids are gonna relate to the market price, and they will relate to the market price that day 6/26 (tomorrow) NOT the market price today and NOT the market price 3 years ago, yet the bids will also relate to what price bidders expect bitcoins to become 3 months to 6 months to 1 year into the future. Bidders are going to have their individualized assessments concerning how much to bid, and the price on 6/26 will be relevant to that assessment.

I am NOT any kind of sophisticated investor, so I do NOT know exactly what they are thinking, but if I had enough money to buy all of the coins, I would make 10 staggered bids and those staggered bids would be based on BTC market price at the time of my bid, towards the end of the auction time, and they would be staggered in approximately 5.5% increments between about 80% of market price and 135% of market price. At about the end of the auction, if I was NOT restricted from doing such, I would have a press release announcing what strategy I employed, and if I did NOT win any of the bids, then I would expect that there would be 10 bids that were higher than my highest bid.

ChartBuddy

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 1823

1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation

TERA

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: magicmexican on June 25, 2014, 07:27:36 AM

Quote from: TERA on June 25, 2014, 07:24:59 AM

Do you want to know why we bounced at $340 on Apr 13, why we bounced at $420 on May 5, and thus why this 'trendline' has held thus far? Both bounce events occured immediately when either China or the Chinese exchanges released some counter-FUD article leading us to believe some major change had occured in China and everything was going to be ok there.

I've been told countless of times that news are secondary to the market movements, or does it only apply to the dumps?

I used to think that all of Bitcoin's tops and bottoms were predetermined, but when was watching the crash at $340 (which seemed to just be getting started), and then suddenly I see the most random and largest bullish engulfing candle ever seen in my life come out of nowhere, and I find out it was seconds-minutes after a Chinese news article was released, I had to reconsider.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: TERA on June 25, 2014, 07:08:50 AM

Quote from: N12 on June 25, 2014, 07:03:35 AM

Quote from: TERA on June 25, 2014, 07:02:34 AM

My point is that the Chinese probably have about 10x more influence over Bitcoin than this auction as they still trump the entire 'west' in volume on EACH of their exchanges.

How real is volume that is generated by 0% fees? We have to account for that.

Personally, I've only observed Bitstamp leading and Huobi following it reluctantly. I don't know why some perceive the opposite.

I'm guessing enough of it is real to be significant - perhaps 20-50%. Even at just 20% it is still equal to the west, which makes it highly significant. Also, there are frequently several 500-1000BTC walls moving around the order book - those can't be faked, meaning that there are in fact players with millions of dollars (worth of btc or yuan) playing on these exchanges, which leads to belief in at least some legitimacy in the volume.

I don't like the idea of thinking of it as "fake" volume, but I do believe it needs to be heavily "discounted" for purposes of volume analysis.

Based on some (admittedly rather crude, please don't ask) method I employ, today's calculation for example would look as follows:

4400 (stamp) + 3000 (btce) + 5400 (finex) = ~13k "Western USD volume"

43000/10 (ok) + 29000/5 (huo) + 3000 (btcchn) = ~13k "Chinese volume"

i.e. today I discount OKCoin volume by a factor of 10, and Huobi by factor 5. It's coincidence that today they add up to roughly the same value, btw.

Note that I don't buy the claim by finex that they really cut *all* ties with stamp, so some of the finex volume is likely to be a duplicate of stamp volume, so total western USD volume is possibly too high. On the other hand, it doesn't include EUR (and other currencies) volume yet.

In summary, on a day like today I consider, at least by volume, the "Chinese" influence about as big as the "Western" influence.

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Quote from: N12 on June 25, 2014, 07:03:35 AM

How real is volume that is generated by 0% fees? We have to account for that.

The 0% fees surely are the main reason for the higher volume, but that does not make the volume "fake". Fake volume is transactions where both parties are the same entity. If the two parties are distinct competing entities, it is not fake.

While I have no proof that Huobi's volume is legit, if it is fake it is very well done. OKCoin's has a ~10% component that looks fake.

Quote from: N12 on June 25, 2014, 07:03:35 AM

Personally, I've only observed Bitstamp leading and Huobi following it reluctantly. I don't know why some perceive the opposite.

Funny, I have seen quite the opposite in general, although there are possible exceptions (the March/13 jump being one). OkCoin and Huobi change fast, have a very small spread, and track each other very closely, within a dollar or less; while Bitstamp changes slowly, in coarser jumps, and has a very wide spread.

TERA

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: magicmexican on June 25, 2014, 07:27:36 AM

Quote from: TERA on June 25, 2014, 07:24:59 AM

Do you want to know why we bounced at $340 on Apr 13, why we bounced at $420 on May 5, and thus why this 'trendline' has held thus far? Both bounce events occured immediately when either China or the Chinese exchanges released some counter-FUD article leading us to believe some major change had occured in China and everything was going to be ok there.

I've been told countless of times that news are secondary to the market movements, or does it only apply to the dumps?

I think Chinese events are more significant than just 'news' - they imply half of Bitcoin's trading power suddenly moving in and out, panicking and thinking that now they have to stop trading bitcoin, or now they can trade bitcoin again - there is a lot of raw force behind it.

magicmexican

hero member

Activity: 812

Merit: 1000

Quote from: TERA on June 25, 2014, 07:24:59 AM

Do you want to know why we bounced at $340 on Apr 13, why we bounced at $420 on May 5, and thus why this 'trendline' has held thus far? Both bounce events occured immediately when either China or the Chinese exchanges released some counter-FUD article leading us to believe some major change had occured in China and everything was going to be ok there.

I've been told countless of times that news are secondary to the market movements, or does it only apply to the dumps?

kodtycoon

legendary

Activity: 1568

Merit: 1002

Quote from: bangersdad on June 25, 2014, 07:16:20 AM

Quote from: kodtycoon on June 25, 2014, 07:01:20 AM

nem and nxt havnt budged! lol perhaps not all of the crypto community is pathetic Wink

and VRC went up 300% in the last 3 days...although correcting this morning to just a 200% gain.

and was there any cause for this? many coins have gone through pumps like that and faded away again.

nem is 22/23 place on market cap. with out even having released any software what so ever.! its also valued a 1/4 of the real value as its down as only having 1000 stakes when 4000 stakes are priced into the market.

tarmi

legendary

Activity: 1232

Merit: 1011

chinese reluctant to sell.

too much new generation hardware waiting to be sold.

give them time.

empowering

legendary

Activity: 1078

Merit: 1441

Quote from: magicmexican on June 25, 2014, 07:22:21 AM

Tripple'ish bottom maybe?

Bouncy

(oh and the asses too)

TERA

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Do you want to know why we bounced at $340 on Apr 13, why we bounced at $420 on May 5, and thus why this 'trendline' has held thus far? Both bounce events occured immediately when either China or the Chinese exchanges released some counter-FUD article leading us to believe some major change had occured in China and everything was going to be ok there.

magicmexican

hero member

Activity: 812

Merit: 1000

Tripple'ish bottom maybe?

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27046. (Read 26709087 times)