Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27074. (Read 26720681 times)

Like every losing bidder who tried his luck for a sweet deal at $200-$400 a pop will now suddenly want to jump in at $600..  
 

No way, 100$/BTC, It will be atleast 500 USD per BTC and even some here thinking bidding will be on premium so you can
expect 500-650 range bid.

I wonder if we can leak a story to the press "The highest bid has been $100\BTC" 

I think we still have to wait till we cross again 610 mark, before that really not recommending buying.

Although I sincerely hope you're right - as I have $10,000 ready to pump in. Over the past couple of hours, I have only seen a gradual upward trend.

This is the weird thing about the poll.  Initially, I was thinking that the auction was on 6/26, so to predict the price on 6/27 would be more meaningful.


However, since the auction is on 6/27, we could get a bit of screwing up of highs and lows, and in other words, many people may end up being right, depending upon what time of the day.

I am getting a sense (maybe from chips, or from astrology or god) that there is going to remain some continued downward pressures on BTC prices until about 3 hours before the end of the auction time.. and possibly a little longer than that.  Yet, at the same time, I am NOT sure about whether there will be an ability to contain the prices downward.  So let's say downward will be between $550 and $580. 

If there are some kinds of leaks about the bids being at or above then BTC price, this may cause BTC prices to clime beyond $580 and into the low $600s.

Once the auction is clearly over, it seems inevitable that we are going to hear additional leaks about what the bids were, and those bids are likely going to have been in the $600s and possibly in the upper $600s and maybe even into the $700s.  This leaked news (whether rumor or NOT) will likely cause BTC prices to be pushed up into the mid-$600s.  then over the weekend, we could likely continue to get upward movement and then prices into the $700s or even $800s, as was mentioned by several posters earlier.

I really have my doubts about shooting to a new all time high before late August, but who the hell really knows, and if there gets to be too many whales wanting to get in, then HODLers are NOT going to want to sell until the upsurge in prices has run its course - accordingly, we are likely going to get some floating between $700s and $850s prior to the upsurge that will go above and beyond the old ATH - and likely in the $2k to $3k territory in either late 2014 or early 2015 - and some are predicting $4-6K territory, which seems a bit too optimistic for me... even though I would NOT mind seeing such an upsurge in prices within that same time line. 

I really doubt that prices would go to $10k before mid 2015, but seems plausible in the late 2015 time frame.. but then if we are talking another late 2015 bubble, then such a bubble could possibly go beyond $10k.  There will NOT be another halving of the BTC mining until late 2016, which will likely cause some additional upsurge in BTC prices (so long as BTC is still around by then). 

I think you are a condescending butthole to assume that the names on that leaked list are dumbasses that want or expect coins to sell for $200. You are a freaking moron if you believe that. Those were heavy hitters that could buy and sell you a 100 times over. They don't waste their time "hoping" for a deal. And they don't bid on bitcoin unless they want it.

I am hoping for a drop. I imagine that the price will soar within the year, but there is too much downside risk to jump in heavier around $580. Notably, I worry about Wall Street market manipulators intentionally tanking the market because they have derivative contracts referenced to Bitcoin. For example, in the lead up to the mortgage bubble, Goldman Sachs took out naked credit default swaps via AIG banking on a market collapse that they were responsible for. Notably, the payout of the naked credit default swaps was 10x the underlying dimunition of value in the mortgage market. This occurred because with this type of derivative, one needn't actually own the referenced security, commodity, currency, etc. that they are referencing the "insurance policy" to in order to receive a full payout. Moreover, they can contract for protection that is 100x the value of the underlying asset/currency/security/etc. Since these are unregulated contractual agreements there are no clearinghouses and nobody knows what negative positions people are taking. Resultantly, I think the intrinsic value of this innovation is multiple times its current value and, yet, it is way too easy to manipulate for me to want to get in at this price.

A couple other thoughts

(1) This is why a post-auction dump isn't unfathomable (albeit extremely, extremely unlikely)... an institutional player could use the acquired BTCs as a weapon to tank the market short-term in order to collect on a derivatives contract several orders of magnitude greater than their holdings;

(2) I think the argument for auctioneers buying at a premium is mildly flawed because, although they can buy without impacting the market, they cannot extract liquidity on that many BTCs without dropping the market unless they slow played it and in that case they'd still be holding a lot of risk. They probably will be expecting a jump in prices if they get in, but they'll still run into a similar problem if they look to unload down the line -- they'd have to be a true believer AND somewhat risk blind... they cannot actually utilize that many BTCs unless acceptance goes through the roof OR a major external economic event (Chinese mainland wealth migration). In short, I say it is mildly flawed because I think the reason for expecting a premium is spot-on, but I think it is outweighed by this second factor... I'd expect the auctioneers to buy at a 10% discount.

Full disclosure -- I own a very small holding of BTC (10), that I got at just over $400 a pop. I am holding for the long-term, but hoping for a short-term dump for another entry point. I am very biased in this regard. I missed the boat a while back on the best entry points so take what I say with a grain of salt. I am just curious what others think. I am short-term a mixture of anxious and giddy and long-term hopeful.

Totally true.  If you read through my posts you can see I am not shy about my belief in God.  Which hasn't won me much popularity on this forum BTW. This friend I am talking about has been a major spiritual "mentor" in my life so I respect her greatly. But I tried to explain all the risks before she bought.  I guess that shows a little lack of faith on my part?  I think I just want her to have realistic expectations though.

Ha Ha   Or He is just trying to teach us a lesson in having more patience!!!

Update:
Bullish trendline being tested now! Make or break now.

I believe.  A friend of mine, whom I told many months ago about BTC, said she was praying and God told her, and it appears with a feeling of urgancy, to invest in Bitcoin.    Now that is bullish news!   

It's the 27th, I voted 575$ and so far 65% have been wrong.