Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27086. (Read 26710372 times)
June 22, 2014, 06:24:15 PM
It is already 07:20 am Monday in China, but nothing is happening yet in Huobi or OKCoin. Strange.
June 22, 2014, 06:10:59 PM
I did a quick survey of what people are writing about in this forum:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7458812
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7458812
Quote
it would seem that the forum posts are now evenly split betwen Bitcoin and altcoins (~45% each). Apart from mining, the Bitcoin-related posts are evenly split between Chinese-language posts and non-Chinese (mostly English).
June 22, 2014, 06:10:37 PM
We're in a secular bull market, looked at in a scale of months, in my opinion.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough. You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough. You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.
Using you own analysis: why not 100%?
I am not the OP but I would say 10% is approximately Kelly-optimal given my empirical edge (about 5%). It gets a little more complicated if you allow for leverage.
June 22, 2014, 06:06:04 PM
This is amazing, Stamp never veering from $599.99 for days. Nope, no manipulation involved at all. Nope, pure free market, makes perfect sense it should stay that price.
It is weekend, just wait for tommorow, you will see real manipulation, every market has manipulation but all depends how much manipulation going on.
June 22, 2014, 06:00:51 PM
June 22, 2014, 05:57:01 PM
We're in a secular bull market, looked at in a scale of months, in my opinion.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough. You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough. You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.
Using you own analysis: why not 100%?
I would like to learn how to trade, and this is my way of doing it. I would like to learn how to trade because the recent bear market taught me the disadvantages of holding.
How is it a bear market?
It is now about $600.
Last month was $400
6 months ago was $200
Last year June was $60
18 months ago was $10
2 years ago was $6
June 22, 2014, 05:55:32 PM
It's easy to regret staying put a bear market once you've been mired in it for a long time. Trying to trade it is going to be a bit more hair raising.
More difficult to me is trading this type of sideways. The run-up and correction through February were very volatile, and trends were very easy to follow. With all this sideways and choppiness, it's pretty frustrating trying to stay on top of the trend.
June 22, 2014, 05:54:37 PM
This is amazing, Stamp never veering from $599.99 for days. Nope, no manipulation involved at all. Nope, pure free market, makes perfect sense it should stay that price.
June 22, 2014, 05:49:37 PM
It's easy to regret staying put a bear market once you've been mired in it for a long time. Trying to trade it is going to be a bit more hair raising.
June 22, 2014, 05:48:07 PM
We're in a secular bull market, looked at in a scale of months, in my opinion.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough. You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough. You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.
Using you own analysis: why not 100%?
I would like to learn how to trade, and this is my way of doing it. I would like to learn how to trade because the recent bear market taught me the disadvantages of holding.
June 22, 2014, 05:43:18 PM
The price is fine for now, but i'll be a little worried if the price fail to rise (and stay) above $600 by July 1st.
Why it was only $420 last month. Now is $595 that is a 45% increase. And last year the price was only $80
It's a matter of holding the trend. The trend started getting real choppy in the high $600s before breaking down -- preferably, after this rebound, we don't stagnate similarly and break downward once again.
June 22, 2014, 05:42:16 PM
We're in a secular bull market, looked at in a scale of months, in my opinion.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough. You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough. You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.
Using you own analysis: why not 100%?
June 22, 2014, 05:34:36 PM
We're in a secular bull market, looked at in a scale of months, in my opinion.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough. You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough. You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.
June 22, 2014, 05:18:50 PM
The price is fine for now, but i'll be a little worried if the price fail to rise (and stay) above $600 by July 1st.
Why it was only $420 last month. Now is $595 that is a 45% increase. And last year the price was only $80
June 22, 2014, 05:17:05 PM
I presume someone could buy 25k if one uses at least 3 exchanges (Bitstamp, daily volume 4000 BTC; Bitfinex, daily volume 4800 BTC; btc-e, daily volume 3000 BTC souirce: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/). If you were to use just 10% of total volume daily (12800 BTC), which means 1280 BTC bought per day, would mean that you need 20 days to accomplish your goal without moving the market that much. And during that time the price could go up up up.
Arbitrage effectively connects all the exchanges into a single global market; with some shifts in the prices, from which the arbitragers make their profit, and a delay of a minute or less.So by trading on any of those exchanges you are trading on all of them, and also on all the Chinese exchanges. Together they can easily absorb 1300 BTC per day, I woudl think; but if done repeatedly over 20 days the price will probably move quite a bit.
It seems advisable in general to split a large buy (or sell) into several smaller buys spaced a few minutes apart, so that the arbitragers have a chance to bring the asks or bids) from other exchanges into the one where you are trading. Trading drectly on two or more exchanges should only save the arbitrage fees.
June 22, 2014, 05:15:34 PM
We're in a secular bull market, looked at in a scale of months, in my opinion.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough. You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.
Drops will be temporary.
The problem I see with daytrading in such an environment is that you need to keep a cushion of fiat so that you can go in and out of the market.
Let's say you're an active trader and your holdings, averaged over time, net half crypto half fiat, because you're always buying and selling.
And you're competent enough that your trades come out in the black, on average.
That's not enough. You have to do more than just come out in the black on your trades; you have to beat the returns you would get by hodling.
I keep most of my stake in cold storage, and play day trader with less than ten percent of it.
June 22, 2014, 05:05:30 PM
words
Where did your other 1700 posts go and why?
I'm NOT sure what you mean...
? For one thing, I have an imitator, poster, which could also be someone in the thread.. I suppose.. and additionally, you snipped the content of the referenced post, which was from me... and that referenced post shows my current post count as in the 1800s... which seems accurate...
At first I thought you deleted posts because your post count was low. What I see is that your post count is 140 and never changes.
Unless you have some kind of glitch on your end, my activity level is currently 140 and my current post count is 1851. Maybe restart you browser... ? hehehe...
or change the battery on your mouse.. 
I didn't realize that they changed the display to activity from post count. You can now choose to display post count in addition to activity.
You no longer are "hero"
June 22, 2014, 05:00:49 PM
June 22, 2014, 05:00:17 PM
The price is fine for now, but i'll be a little worried if the price fail to rise (and stay) above $600 by July 1st.
June 22, 2014, 04:58:52 PM
I don't see how any logical bidder would pay even close to 95% of current market value for the coins. Buyers go to auctions to buy things at discount.
Every auction I've ever observed sold its wares for prices ludicrously over their market value. I think the average buyer thinks they're going to get a bargain because it's an auction. If everyone else thinks that then bargains go out the window.
I wouldn't want to make any predictions about this auction though. It's a unique happening.
These are blocks of thousands of bitcoins. The investors are not weekend garage sale hunters on a $50 budget. They want an edge of 10 20 30% off because they have cash on hand.
If you want to buy thousands of Bitcoins paying above spot is still cheap because buying that many coins would result in enormous slippage in our thinly traded Bitcoin markets.
Too bad the auction is blind though.
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