Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 2732. (Read 26713762 times)

ps

backwardation and all the other shenanigans are being observed as institutions look short imo

again imo i dont think this lvl is worth defending...a decent place to DCA but i am waiting for sub 14 bargain prices


see what happens as Dec. arrives....'23 has to be better....right?

id ask for a do over for '22...except i def do not want to go thru this again    could be 3-6 months before this purge shakes out cause im not sure the other shoe has dropped yet
usually comes about the time you raise your head up and begin to wonder if its all clear

disappointed with the whole space right now


happy fucking holidays


dyor

stronghands

Explanation

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Here are the winning Carved Pumpkins

I just came by to say hi. It's been a busy 10 days for me with a business trip. I had made some plans during the last bull run and I started pursuing them. Firstly, I realized that no matter how rich I'm, I will need to have a job for various reasons. For example monthly expenses, retirement and so on. And my job is very good, it is like a hobby - part time with above the average salary and 5 months of paid vacation yearly.

I entered Bitcoin world thanks to the gpu mining and soon after I became a strong hand Bitcoin hodler. At times being more than all in. I was confident when we fell to 3K in 2018 that I even took a bank loan to add some more corn to my stash. But now the mining is not profitable and I use my rigs only for heating. Since I continue buying Bitcoin, I decided to look for a better job in a bigger city which is one of the most beatiful cities in Europe btw. Luckily I was approved and I went to sign the part time contract for the first year. If everything is OK, I will sign a permanent contract next year. In the meantime I will keep my current job, which means some travel, but I'm okay with that. I transferred some cash before my travel, and each day I bought some. I didn't care what was the reason for the drop, I always buy first and then read. (FTX, what the heck is that, I don't care!) Every crash empties the exchanges and opens the door for the next massive bull run.

In general I follow the DCA strategy, but if shits hit the fan, I buy more. For example, my ratio Bitcoin/total savings is currently 77% and I plan to reach 79% in the next 2 years. If shit gets bigger, I can get close to 90%.  I have the firm belief that in the next bull run, no matter when exactly it will happen, the price should reach 150K. My SOMA prediction is 168K top of the next cycle. Anyway, I know that the good things won't last forever, so the usual stuff will happen after some time in ATHs territory - Chinese communist clonws will pannic and start spreading their FUD banning Bitcoin, putting in jail the users of VPN; Feds and EU bankers banning Bitcoin for its POW; the new harvest of fools trusting crooks with their savings will emerge again, new shitcoins pumps and so on. And then new bankrupts will come starting the next bear cycle with lows under 100K.

But no matter what the top will be, I will sell some of my stash above 110K with a gradual percentage increase to have enough to buy a house in the new place. I can always buy a cheaper one or postpone the buying and use half of the fiat to rebuy back the same amount of Bitcoins if the price falls 50%. I developed a software that helps me a lot in all kinds of market scenarious. The trick is to re-finance my Bitcoin debt by DCAing with the new income no matter the price. Despite rebuyng higher in the last year, now I buy lower, i.e. I would have more bitcoins with my current fiat, although I spent some to buy a lot of stuff - computers, music gear, etc. And this is quite a new and pleasant experience for me And as a priority, Bitcoin will always be first, compared to fiat. So I prefer increasing my stash than having some spectacular savings. With the exception of the fiat for the future house of course.

P.S. I'm sorry for the JJG style post, but it won't happen again soon, I promise! And I had to patiently read 40+ pages backlog, so I'm excused As someone mentioned, thanks to exphorizon etc. ignored spammers for making my task a bit easier.

Explanation

Wow!

You are coming off as more bullish than me, at least at the moment.

We have a lot of contagion continuing to be revealed.. so sure there could be a lot of ongoing downward pressures on the BTC price - while at the same time, we could end up getting a pump or a short squeeze.. but we would still need to get at least into the mid-20s before I might be wanting to feel like the "bottom is in," but whatever, I have never claimed to be anything more than a "lagging indicator" anyhow?  At least that's my recollection of the way that I approach these short term BTC price performance matters.

And, by the way, I might not even be happy with mid-$20ks because that is just getting us to the 200-week moving average price arena.. which is a bottom in and of itself.. so I am still thinking that I need to see some dancing between the 200-week moving average and the 100-week moving average (which is actually in the upper $30ks) before I am going to be getting into my "bottom is in" smuggenings.


I was kind of like that in 20215/16 too, and also I was like that in 2019 - even though we were surely spoiled by the early 2019 pump - and also I seem to understand some of the indicators better, even though they are not really leading me to ways of getting out of my tendencies to employ lagging indicator mental frameworks.

Explanation

Explanation

Explanation

Bitcoin looking eerily stable as volume drops back down to normal.  Seems like somebody is doing some buying and keeping a floor on the price.  The trading range over the last few days is only a few percent.  That to me signals that some sort of market change might be happening.  This is probably a point in time where you don't want to be the guy who capitulated at $16K after riding out the bubble through $60K.  It feels a lot like the pain is coming to an end soon and good times are right around the corner for Bitcoin speculators.

Explanation

I'm just guessing, my bottom is smaller than yours.

This is my guess for what the top will look like.

Explanation

either you did not read to the bottom of my post or you want to distort the meaning of it.
"currently" and 77.5 being a 5x of 15.5 pretty much shows my opinion of the bottom.

So 77k-155k next cycle.

 Maybe I remember this quote in a few years.

Whatever the ultimate bottom is, I expect "only" 5-10X in the next cycle (from the bottom).
Why? Prior cycles:
$2 bottom, then $1160 top or 580X
$175 bottom, then $19780 top or 113X
$3100 bottom, then $68900 top or 22X

As you can see, the multiple keeps decreasing drastically (by a factor of about 5) in each consecutive cycle.
Accordingly, the next number for a top is roughly 5X of the bottom, but due to some variability, perhaps up to 10X is possible.
Currently, this would mean either $77.5K (which would be a GREAT disappointment for almost everyone) or up to, perhaps, $155K, which could be OK.

Explanation

Now's not the time to splurge on Christmas and instead focus on BTC while it's still trying to get up off its ass in this schoolyard fight.