Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 2733. (Read 26713902 times)

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Wow!

You are coming off as more bullish than me, at least at the moment.

We have a lot of contagion continuing to be revealed.. so sure there could be a lot of ongoing downward pressures on the BTC price - while at the same time, we could end up getting a pump or a short squeeze.. but we would still need to get at least into the mid-20s before I might be wanting to feel like the "bottom is in," but whatever, I have never claimed to be anything more than a "lagging indicator" anyhow?  At least that's my recollection of the way that I approach these short term BTC price performance matters.

And, by the way, I might not even be happy with mid-$20ks because that is just getting us to the 200-week moving average price arena.. which is a bottom in and of itself.. so I am still thinking that I need to see some dancing between the 200-week moving average and the 100-week moving average (which is actually in the upper $30ks) before I am going to be getting into my "bottom is in" smuggenings.


I was kind of like that in 20215/16 too, and also I was like that in 2019 - even though we were surely spoiled by the early 2019 pump - and also I seem to understand some of the indicators better, even though they are not really leading me to ways of getting out of my tendencies to employ lagging indicator mental frameworks.

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Bitcoin looking eerily stable as volume drops back down to normal.  Seems like somebody is doing some buying and keeping a floor on the price.  The trading range over the last few days is only a few percent.  That to me signals that some sort of market change might be happening.  This is probably a point in time where you don't want to be the guy who capitulated at $16K after riding out the bubble through $60K.  It feels a lot like the pain is coming to an end soon and good times are right around the corner for Bitcoin speculators.

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I'm just guessing, my bottom is smaller than yours.

This is my guess for what the top will look like.

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either you did not read to the bottom of my post or you want to distort the meaning of it.
"currently" and 77.5 being a 5x of 15.5 pretty much shows my opinion of the bottom.

So 77k-155k next cycle.

 Maybe I remember this quote in a few years.

Whatever the ultimate bottom is, I expect "only" 5-10X in the next cycle (from the bottom).
Why? Prior cycles:
$2 bottom, then $1160 top or 580X
$175 bottom, then $19780 top or 113X
$3100 bottom, then $68900 top or 22X

As you can see, the multiple keeps decreasing drastically (by a factor of about 5) in each consecutive cycle.
Accordingly, the next number for a top is roughly 5X of the bottom, but due to some variability, perhaps up to 10X is possible.
Currently, this would mean either $77.5K (which would be a GREAT disappointment for almost everyone) or up to, perhaps, $155K, which could be OK.

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Now's not the time to splurge on Christmas and instead focus on BTC while it's still trying to get up off its ass in this schoolyard fight.

OT: Elizabeth Holmes got sentenced to 11-1/4 years prison today.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/theranos-founder-elizabeth-holmes-faces-judgment-day

Halle-fucking-lujah! There is some justice in the world.

Especially since she spent a decade spending millions, jet-setting around the globe and hob-nobbing with the elites.

Hope it sends a strong message to any other Silicon Valley narcissist wannabe scammers.

Perhaps I should have replaced "bitcoin" with "over leveraged paper hands" in that meme.

Explanation

I didn't see anything change about Bitcoin at all. Just sheep being sheared.

Actually things are not so bad. Chippies from FTX and Celsius Network helped us buy bitcoin cheaper