Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27461. (Read 26709382 times)

Depends on the Avatar...

Personally I am gutted I never bothered to get one earlier on.   But if you were buying one to scam, it might be a negative - you'd want credibility but not recognition, I would imagine.

EDIT: I would pay more than 0.1BTC for one of my choice - I think goat said you can cross Theymos' palm, but he can afford a little more then me

It would be cool if someone could work out a root cause for this. It would be interesting if it was a slight mistuning in the Bitcoin protocol. Or perhaps a harmonic of reward halving.

http://www.coindesk.com/mark-t-williams-bitcoin-bulls-time-will-vindicate-prediction/


SELL SELL SELL! 

Explanation

Is this a donation-worthy chart?



I did this up when we were stagnant in the 400's (the blue line) and was waiting to see if the channel here held, and sure enough, the price hit the lower channel boundary and is slowly creeping up (the red line).

I also found that the bubbles (or peaks, if you would prefer to call them that) seem to occur approximately every 234 days (an observation already mentioned on this forum) - with the minimum time between peaks being 213 days and the maximum time being 235 days. Considering there have been six peaks, that is a very small degree of variability for such a volatile phenomenon as Bitcoin.

I then plotted these peaks only and noticed that (bar the June 2011 peak), the others very closely follow an exponential trend which puts the next peak at approximately $4,800 (again, aligning with other predictions being tossed around the forum).

If you extrapolate this trend further, it puts the March 2015 peak at a whopping $26,000!

One last interesting point of note... the runup to the bubbles, whilst varying in duration, does appear to assume the same velocity. Assuming we hit the top of the channel in the next run-up, this price velocity has us commencing the notorious bull-run within the next 10-20 days. Is it just a coincidence that the 1w MACD crossover looks likely to occur in the next 10-20 days?.....

Final disclaimer (before someone else says it): Past behaviour is no indication of the future.
... but it sure is interesting...

Puts me in an awkward situation, though.  Suddenly I'm married to some rich guy...

I disagree - what you are referring to is a super-exponential trend. Most people seem to agree that Bitcoin is following an exponential trend (hence the exponential trendline with a linear y-axis in my plot...)

China starting to lead the markets again. I feel this won't end well again, what ever the reached price will be.

Huobi doesn't give a fuck at the moment. Keeps pushing to new short term highs.

I will send you one in a few minutes, need to restart my client.
Well, the BTC community is rather generous, I am here more than a year and when you actually produce a chart or help other people, you get donations, sometimes

I play a little game to guess the price via the postings and headlines on here. It's much more fun than just watching some numbers move around.

why do you keep posting the price?

Pretty sure most of us have our eyes glued to it.

SCHUU SCHUU. FICKEND RALLY.

Explanation

during period of high volatility this topic seems to have much more posts than it does otherwise. However it's not really exponential growth.

Also i think the chart for the XBT/USD value is not nearly steep enough. It's a linear scale and it should be roughly exponential on a log scale, thus on a linear scale it should go off the chart in no time at all.

Stamp

NOT ANYMORE.

CHOO CHOO. WEEKEND RALLY.

You are so right! But maybe this whole thread is one big "Observer Effect" (hell - it's in the name of the thread!)...

The Observer Effect: "Changes that the act of observation will make on a phenomenon being observed."

(Side note: I have never received a donation before... that is so cool! There are some very nice people on this forum.)

edit: Had to add this...