I don't see a fundamental basis for the technical rally. Cumulative good news in the West and a lack of bad news in China do not appear to be an adequate explanation. This was mostly just seller exhaustion which is not the same thing as a sustained increase in demand. What has happened to make BTC appear more valuable?
What needs to happen for me to feel comfortable that a prolonged bull market is underway is for some new application or applications to be deployed that offer some new benefit. With all of the potential, I'm actually surprised we haven't seen more code development translate into usable applications. What I would most like to see are more and better title tracking tools in the block chain.
On the political side, the East/West divide is growing over Ukraine, the pipeline deal between China and Russia, and currency wars. This is starting to look like Cold War II and if the Eastern powers see Bitcoin as a primarily Western phenomenon, then an eventual banning of BTC-e and Chinese exchanges will be likely. Ironically, Bitcoin would be a powerful tool to break the iron grip of Western Banksters over the world economy, but up until now I see no indications that the Eastern Powers recognize it as such.
I still have my trade account close to 100% fiat and I'm painfully aware of the possibility that I'm missing the train. My consolation is that the vast majority of my holdings are in cold storage. I'm still an ultrabull, but obviously not a permabull anymore because there remains substantial risk that we are not out of the woods yet. China needs to become not just less relevant but functionally irrelevant if a technical or political solution to PBoC hostility is not found. Bulls should find comfort that I and those like me still have lots of fiat on the exchanges to provide support if the rally falters.
Using the exchanges as the actual pricing mechanism is probably insufficient. Lage buyers were probably going OTC and shorting like hell at bitfinex. Ie keep the exchange price low, while buying from private sellers.
That would still leave all sorts of questions. Are these
new buyers or old hodlers increasing their positions? Who's buying and why and how deep are their pockets? Best case scenario is that tech millionaires are building large positions to be in a position to take maximum advantage of the increase in value that will occur when their new software/tech companies build and deploy new products. If that is happening or even being rumored to be happening, I'd love to know about it.
Again I was disappointed that Circle so far is just another version of Coinbase. Good that there is competition, but I want to see that killer app that is out there. The code development that I see is tiny and disappointing compared to the potential.
gogogoo 
