The issue I have with this rally is it seems to be driven by players already in the game. Money on the sidelines blinked and jumped back in. So, for a real run at 550, there needs to be a lot more money on the sidelines that hasn't joined us yet or some fresh money from somewhere.
Meanwhile, I would not take much to get us sliding back towards the 470s. A few more days of slow drip down would do it.
Possible. But there is 'slow trickle of new money' plus 'old money sitting on the side lines', and together it might not be, no, scratch that: it most certainly won't be enough to get us to a new ATH, but that doesn't mean it's too little to support 470, 500, or maybe more.
We will probably overshoot whatever level will turn out to be the lowest stable one without a major new fiat gate, and the correct back to that stable level. I do however that stable level to increase over time, simply because of the cyclic nature of sentiment (people that sold last year and haven't bough back in yet will be more inclined to think "the correction is probably over by now")
Well, I am more than happy to ride this train slowly upwards. But I really feel like before we can be in a real bull market, we need to see some paradigm shifts in the eco-system. Either regulated US exchanges need to open and actually be used, investment vehicles need to open for the public, companies like Circle need to have products that really are means for mass adoption - some or a few of these things need to happen for enough fresh money to enter to take us somewhere meaningful.
In this way it feels more like 2012 to me than anything, because I think the fastest these things will happen in a way that could have a major impact is 6-12 months away.
And until this happens, there are black clouds that hang over our head - potential China ban, more exchange insolvency, etc.
Until the next bubble (assuming it) arrives, we are going to be susceptible to flash crashes and bear market reversals.
