You do realize that nothing needs to be certain, only "beyond a reasonable doubt" to get a conviction, right? If someone goes on a website designed to distribute something, then purchases that something after seeing an ad, it's pretty reasonable to think that they intended to buy that something regardless of which ad they read.
To say that it is an unreasonable assumption would surely be independent thought, but independent does not mean correct.
"correct" according to you? It's reasonable to doubt that a person is just as likely to commit a crime when he sees an ad encouraging him to commit a crime as when he doesn't. The ad makes him more likely to buy, as all ads do. That's why we have ads. If ads didn't work, Madison Avenue would be just another street. The ad made him more likely to buy and we don't know by how much, but if it's not reasonable to say that it could have made the difference between deciding to buy and not deciding to buy, then it would also be unreasonable for anyone but cops to place ads in the first place. Since other people do place ads, reasonable doubt should be a given.
Nothing needs to be certain, but the prosecutor's case isn't only that that ad didn't convince him to buy. The prosecution has to claim that the ad COULDN'T convince him to buy in order to meet the threshold of reasonable doubt. That's a tough sell. You'd need twelve jurors who never placed or responded to an ad.
It's quite contrarian to argue that someone visiting a site designed to distribute something, then buying that something, was not intending to buy regardless of that one particular ad out of potentially 100's. I notice my edit wasn't included in your quote, so allow me to put it up again: Let's try this with something legal that isn't bitcoin to see if it sticks. I want to buy the most beautiful bow for my daughters birthday present. I go on etsy or some shit and start looking up bows. I see this one ad with this terrific bow, it's so beautiful and perfect! So I buy it. Wouldn't it be reasonable to say if I didn't see that ad, I would not have simply given up on buying bows, but rather would have bought a different bow?
No, it's not that simple. It's reasonable that you might have bought her something else. You might have bought her another bow, but you might have bought her something else. Your case is reasonable, but it's not beyond a reasonable doubt. You seem to have a fundamental misunderstanding of the burden of proof that applies here.
Yeah it's a bad analogy on my part because the place would have to be selling specifically bows and only bows for it to work.
On a personal level, I agree totally with the sentiment. In addition, I think busting small time buyers who only plan to consume is a huge waste of money and resources spent catching them, putting them on trial, and imprisoning them. Why not legalize it, save a ton of money when we stop the "war on drugs," and take away some power from the criminal organizations that are currently distributing it?
What I am saying is, according to what I have read and how I interpret it (not being a lawyer or an officer of the law), these arguments you are presenting would be quite suspect in court.