Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27948. (Read 26706700 times)

I would call 3:2 significantly better than 1:1

Current holders intuitively know it.

To make new money interested, we have to tell it.

It is a bit tricky, because it employs recursive probability.

He bought in when bitcoins were at $10, you do not need to be a genius to make a huge profit in that situation. I pretty much suck at trading and still I increased my original investment by x50, how about that?

Furthermore, to give everybody a little perspective: the "castle" (btw: it is a manor, not a castle) is in ruins and it costed less than what a biggish flat would cost in any top capital (New York, London, etc.)

So someone thinks that someone else is dumb and is trying to convince others that that person is dumber.  And one of those accused of being dumb is offering but not really accepting bets that he is not dumb.

What's the average age around here?

Thank you, now I can quote you on that when you're having your little motivational speeches about bitcoin being the world currency. I even saved your post and created a screenshot in case you decide to delete this.
You really are dumb, even when you're trying to prove, that you aren't.

Look into the maintenance costs of a castle and you will see that it is a bodomless pit. Not that I dont respect the ability to pick bitcoin as an investment early on.

What I like to call "check mate" 

but it's not certain! 

1. You need to have earned it first. Either out of luck (early bitcoiners of 4chan descent) or out of being able to recognize the potential of bitcoin ahead of others. Rpietila has indeed a large ego but he is a trader not a lucky bastard from 4chan. He deserves huge credit for having made smart and tough choices before me and you did, using his own brain.
2. Buying property and land is rarely a bad investment in the (decades-) long term. Bubbles aside, the world population is growing quadratically. There will always be a need for homes and farmland. Besides, Estonia has one of the fastest growing IT sector economies in the world. Buying property there is not a stupid choice to me. If things turn for the worse in bitcoinland, he can still turn the castle into a hotel resort for a different audience.

He estimates that there is an insanely high 1% chance that Bitcoin will reach 1,000,000 dollars per BTC.

That is 10k$/BTC expected value from that scenario alone. And the others are not all zero either.

As people learn about this insanely profitable risky bet offered to them, they buy in, mostly very little, because losing does not hurt, but winning changes their life.

When enough people buy, the price rises. Now we are closer to 1,000,000 and the probability to reach it therefore goes up.

This allows more people to buy, because less risk.

In the end, when the recursion is totally played out, the probability to hit an insanely high valuation of $1 million (or higher) is something like 20%.

And when you see and understand the above, it makes you even more willing to buy even more NOW, increasing the price and ...

 

He is not certain about that? Well, maybe you should ask him on what does he think about that.

I was actually the one that gave him the benefit of the doubt, and I actually PMed him a serious and honest message, like he asked. And as predicted, he didn't respond. So, now I'm quite certain that there is no constructive communication possible with him. The only use he has is for entertainment purposes.

If you want to learn about his history, then learn about how he took an unprotected laptop to an sauna party, that got stolen together with the coins it held. In my book, it's either very stupid, or it's the work of an confidence man.
I don't know if you actually believe that he isn't dumb, or are you just trying to ass-kiss yourself a room at the "castle". And I don't actually care, you aren't the only one here who actually believes that he is smart. I have spoken my mind, and I think that he really is dumb.

But why would anybody offer you 7:1 if you run up to them screaming that your bet is a guaranteed winner? You didn't ask for 7:1, you asked for "significantly better than 1:1." Well, what does that mean? I would call 4:1 significantly better, but according to your own assumptions that you admitted to later (20%), that would have been a break-even bet for you.

If you wanted a real bet, you completely played it wrong. You could have come up all sheepish about your opinion, and probably gotten decent odds. Some arrogant bear might have given you as high as 10:1 if you had been smart about it. If, however, you just wanted to bullshit about to da moon and rock bottom, with no real bet, then you played it precisely right. I have no idea what your intention was, so I won't speculate, all I am saying is if you actually wanted a bet, you went about it very wrong.

As for the standing and trolls stuff, eh whatever, I take all that with a grain of salt. Human nature makes social standing a popularity contest. Of course nobody in high standing is going to disagree with you. To make an absolutely sweeping generalization without consideration for any individual it may include, most of them are permabulls, and even the bears in high standing have their "cold storage" that has been plummeting in value. You are saying things those people want to hear. Why would they criticize you?

I am much more strict with the term troll than most on this forum. I don't consider most posters on here to be trolls. I consider a number of "trolls" to simply be people saying things the people who call them trolls don't want to hear. People talking their book is about the heaviest trolling you'll usually see around here, barring the obvious "single digits incoming" or "100k in 3 months" nonsense.

EDIT: Oh and I honestly have no clue whatsoever what you mean by fitting the description in your lamentation.

Explanation

actually the argument was invalid, alongside this beautiful red herring you have presented to me. Risto is not 100% certain that bitcoin is going to be adopted by the entire world. you set up the argument as a strawman - or where do you get your facts?

Canonical summary of the betting situation achieved. Now, maybe let's move on.



One of the best comments in here during the last days, and completely ignored unfortunately.

Selling pressure is noticeably going down, even the bears will admit that much. What is however not happening is increasing buying pressure at those "super cheap prices per coin". Which, btw, the bulls /don't/ readily admit.


I wrote in here  about 6 weeks ago (too lazy to dig up the post now... sue me) that we are in the process of "normalizing" 400. We're pretty much there now. Bitstamp is trading in the low 400s, and we're seeing what... 7k btc volume on the largest Western exchange, compared to the 100k+ volume on the earlier capitulation days, when those 400 coins were still a rarity.

What exactly the consequence is of normalizing 400 is not clear yet, imo. In the best case, it builds a solid base from which we can (slowly, at first) recover from the bear market. In a less favorable outcome, we will see normalization of 300 coins next.

I think that you are going much too far, and probably, I should NOT even be entertaining your post - b/c I have already have attempted to have genuine communications with you, without luck.  I even saw interaction between you and Rpietila, where he likely entertained you too much too - by giving you the benefit of the doubt concerning whether you were attempting to engage in a genuine or meaningful (non-troll conversation).

  People do dumb things, sometimes, and Rpietila is far from dumb - even though he has contradicted himself (at least regarding the bet issue) and rationalized his communications concerning the bet issue... but that does NOT make him dumb.. and also, he has made a lot of valuable contributions to the forum through his various postings over the years (I have NOT read all of them, but several and they are genuinely helpful in framing various issues and providing experiential perspective).

Indeed, buying a castle is the best way to lose the money you just earned.

Yeah, not like it would have been smart to use this money to invest in the crypto infrastructure (if you really believe that bitcoin will be the world currency). Like create and develop your own exchange, or maybe an payment service.
It's always smart to go into accommodation in Estonia. Especially when you have no experience or skills in the field. Very smart business decision, and not at all a typical "Hurray! Look! I have money!" project.

No, the argument wasn't invalid. If you are even a little more then stupid, then you won't make predictions that aren't predictable. That will lose you any credibility that you might have. It's like the weather service would make a certain prediction, that at 12:36AM on 23.08.2019, it will start to rain in NYC. Predictions like that will make you look like a joke to those who know better, only to the dim-witted ones it may look like something wonderful.

Did you buy a fucking CASTLE with the money earning trading Bitcoins? He did.

All said.