Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27990. (Read 26710175 times)

I cant imagine the butthurt from the people who bought all along the way down and are still holding  

I agree. Is there a point of controversy?

- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.322 log units. The trendline is at $966 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (of all of the time between the 4/2013 and 11/2013 peaks, only 2% (5 days) was spent this low)

Though the great thing about linear regression is that as long as the price starts out at 0, the slope can't ever be negative, so all is well, and all will forever be well so long as there is a non-zero trading price. Infinite profits ahead, guaranteed.

The problem with your log-linear model isn't that it's not updated regularly. I know you do that.

The problem is the *extreme* laggyness of the model, and how you intend to use it. By the time your regression picks up the fact that we are in a huge bear market*, it is already much too late.

The log-linear trend can maybe, if you insist, be used to get an idea of the order of magnitude of the expected price, assuming nothing about the growth function up to now has fundamentally changed. And even then you should remind people that it is no guarantee either, just a reasonably motivated model.

This is the great delusion that markets bestow upon people, that a trend is invulnerable and "it all works out in the end" almost sounds like religious faith. I know that nothing I can say could possibly make you think otherwise, but still, please consider how you would react if Bitcoin slid 80% or 90% from here during the next 6 months. Even if the probability is small, are you ready for it?

Because this has happened before, and it happened in this very asset (even if you tell me that times are "different" now – well, to compensate, the price is higher to begin with!). I remember that time well. At the time, there was a long-term log support trendline, too, that was being drawn by everyone in this forum. It was violently BROKEN:



And guess what? That break ended up being the best time to buy. But few bought, for few had money to spare, and many of those who did have given up on Bitcoin. I will tell you that all along this decline, there was plenty of good news as well. I believe Bitpay was created amidst the bear market for example.

All I want to say is that eventually, all trends break. Prepare yourself for the improbable, because it is devastating to lose almost all of your wealth. Do not let your mind be compromised by Bitcoin cultists. Let this be a lesson from a former Bitcoin cultist who has made a fortune off Bitcoin by turning himself into a Bitcoin pragmaticist.

Same advice I would give, because 99.99% of all humans have a time horizon that extends beyond the current week, and don't watch charts every day, let alone all day.

It looks really bad for you, this mocking contempt for maturity, realism, and rationality.  I wouldn't want to play poker with that much drama, personally.  But then I never really took to reality TV either.

I find it hard to imagine how you can consider it anything but dispassionately objective to note that the historic trend is still holding, and therefore can be expected to continue to hold, until it ceases to hold.

I suppose that, in the early days, sites like exchanges and online casinos would have a single bitcoin address for bitcoin deposits, and all clients would transfer bitcoins to it (using the decimal satoshi amount to identify their deposits); whereas now such sites commonly generate a new unique address for each client and/or each deposit.  Is this correct?

You did WHAT?!?

i bought something with bitcoin yesterday

fulfilling the self-fulfilling prophecy?

why the F not!

 

Get it into your head: If (for whatever independent reasons) we will stay below that trendline long enough, it will look substantially different from the one you constructed right now.

Levels of thinking:

1.   The most common and least complicated; say, you are long and want the price to go up.  You post pictures of trains and rockets and post rebuttals to those opposed to that view.  Most of the participants here fall into this category.

2.   Less common and more difficult to pull off.  Say you are short but pretend to be long.  You enter conversations with those who are long, arguing unconvincingly that the price must rise, thereby giving the impression (to level one thinkers) that the price may, indeed, be ready to decline.

3.   Uncommon and requires much more effort and practice; a combination of 1 & 2 with a large dose of logic, numbers, and charts that back up your supposed position.  So, you are long but you want to influence the level 2 people to believe you are short.  Most of the time you are trying to get the level 2’s angry enough that they will do the opposite of what they believe you want, namely talk up the price so you profit.

4.   There are, supposedly, more levels but they come with increasing complexity.  You run the risk of misjudging and damaging your intent.
  
See also:  Roshambo (Rock, Paper, Scissors) for a game simple enough to be played by pre-school children, but is played by high-rolling gamblers.

For an example, I believe, of level 2 practice, see most of the posts by Proudhon.

Your "advice" of buying because we are currently below it is based on wishful thinking and extremely biased interpretation of the data.