Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 27993. (Read 26710221 times)

Trying to keep it short:


If the bet is +EV for me, I try to bet as much as possible, bounded by the Kelly formula of course. If it is -EV, I don't bet anything.


No thanks. I bet to win, if at all.


Too late. He had ample time.


"never" is part of the event clause: ( P("bitcoin will never go to 435") = X% ).

Never was it indicated that X equals 0%.

I don't care if the price crashes below $400. The problem is if it stays there. BTCE and Bitfinex have already flash-crashed to $100 this year. So spikes are always possible, it is the overall trend which is important.

I agree with you, the price is not going to "crash" to 400's level, however I can sense fear in your posts, I remember once you telling us that you don't do bets because it is illegal in your country and a past experience you had when someone reported you to authorities. but here you are now betting "again" I find it hard to believe or trust you anymore.

I can sense fear on this thread.....this will be my last post in this thread, I will still post in this forum occasionally if there is a need, but most likely not on the speculation forum....

good luck to all of you.

Personally, I have NO problem with predictions being wrong.   Who cares?

I have a problem with someone saying that s/he will put money on his/her prediction, and then failing to commit to that course of action.  People are wrong all the time, and NO BIG deal, but if you say that you are going to put some money on your prediction, then make it happen.. to solidify the amount of money and the timeline and the triggering mechanisms for the payout(s).. or at least make a  good faith attempt at 1 BTC or something.. at least you put some money on it.. like you said you were willing to do....

If you do NOT follow through with your statement and your proposal to make a bet, then you are merely trolling this thread to make the other people in the thread to do all the work in formulating the hypothetical that you apparently had NO intention to follow through with.

Explanation

the epicness is already embodied in saying "never".

so, the only question here is are we going to see another rpietila's failed prediction.

That seems to be as good of an analogy as any.... b/c it seems that there are plenty of reasons to cause it to happen... but still it does NOT happen...

Morning guys!

I do not see >$500, I do not understand why it is so .... but what can I say and what should I do instead of support and wait...


Train is on the way! ;]

I don't see why you feel compelled to call me childish or to suggest that I do NOT understand your bet merely b/c you want odds on the results. I believe that falls in the adhominem attack category.

 Either BTC prices are going to breach $435 or they are NOT.  Are you going to bet or NOT?  Apparently NOT.  That does NOT make me childish b/c I did NOT make such a statement about willing to bet that BTC would Never breach $435.

In previous posts, I also suggested that you just crank down the amount of the bet, if the amount bothers you, b/c aren't we talking about the principle of the statement that you are predicting a certain result - the money should just be a side issue, just to give assurance that you are willing to put some skin in the game... Heck you could make it .1BTC.  Those are called gentlmen's bets, but apparently, it is beginning to seem to me that you just want to finagle out of the bet rather than following through with backing up your statement with some dinero.  If you do NOT feel so confident in your statement, then you should modify your statement or NOT suggest you are planning to take some amorphous complicated bet that NO one understands, except for yourself.  And that is NOT childish to NOT understand your statement that BTC would never breach $435, but you are NOT willing to commit to 30days to see what happens.


Edit: Actually, from what I have seen, you, Rpietila,  have NOT proposed specific odds.. like 60/40 or whatever for $435... b/c maybe in the end, Windjc would be willing to give you some odds.  A problem, however, comes, when you, Rpietila, used the word "never" which implies that you think 100%, so you should be more than willing to bet 50% odds when you make such a statement.

I guess this would just end up like Pacquiao vs Mayweather  

Now you are childish.

Poker players raise if they have 52/48 but not if it is 48/52.

I am calculating 90% odds for the certain outcome. If you think the odds are 95%, you should bet with me for +EV.

50% is obviously not same as 90%.

I am tired of writing to people who don't know about betting enough to justify opening their mouth but nevertheless do it.

So no bets here. The other thread will perhaps develop into a probability machine where you will always be able to check if your feeling corresponds with the majority, and bet with the ones who think the opposite.

Why make it so complicated?  If you do NOT like the $500 issue, then leave that out.. who cares about that.

The main question is whether or NOT you are willing to bet that BTC will NOT hit $435 in the next 30 days.  You can pick any amount that you want to bet.  Who fucking cares about odds.  You only going to take a bet if you get odds, then change the amount to $430 or something that you are willing to live with with 1:1 odds.  Maybe Windjc is willing to give odds, but the odds are NOT necessary, if you can agree to an amount and just keep it 1:1 - either BTC breaches that level in 30 days or it does NOT.

90 days is NOT needed - unless you are betting on something else, besides your original statement that BTC will never breach $435.  If you go with 90 days, then you just have more time to lose the bet.


Personally, I agree with you Rptiela about the bullishness of bitcoin, but I am NOT very confident to make any bet that BTC will NOT breach a certain amount.. Maybe I would bet that it will NOT breach $300, but personally, I am NOT even sure about that.... But, who cares about me?  I did NOT make the statement.  You, Rptiela, made the statement that BTC would NOT breach $435, and said that you would put some money on it.. .. so go ahead and do it.  Even though I do NOT agree with Windjc's conclusion about the direction of BTC prices, he seems reasonable in the framing of bets.  It may be the case that the two of you cannot see eye to eye on the terms of the bet, but the subject does NOT necessarily need to be complicated with odds and a whole lot of various ambiguous terms.

Explanation

Certainly rpietila does more reasonable analysis than most people here.

30 days does not embody the full epicness of saying "never" when we are talking about the trigger being only $20 below the the price today. Also I don't want to change my 10:1 leverage to an arbitrary $500 especially as both agree than in P(98%) it will be hit in 90 days anyway. These are the changes. It seems clear that once again if you are bullish on bitcoin, the best odds you get by buying it. If you are bearish, then you have a few weeks/months in the sun, and then you are replaced with a new generation. And I have seen many.

"Every bet has two sides. Every bettor on the winning side will receive as follows : 99% of his original bet sum (1% goes to BitBet.us) plus 99% of his bet times the total bet by the losing side multiplied by his bet's total weight and divided by the winning side total weight."

this is a fun way to bet. if you are the first to bet, your weight is 100%. you can wait to the last minute and bet on an almost certain outcome, but your weight will be much smaller - therefore your winnings possibly not worth the risk.

If you place a bet that is evenly sided, and likely to be popular, you can win simply by betting on both sides. It's an incentive to be gutsy, and to make good bets.

If I place a .05 BTC bet on 'yes', and 20 bears bet 2 BTC on 'NO' then I stand to win 2BTC. if the price begins to climb to 4000, some bulls will bet yes, but they will be entitled to proportionately less than I will be of the 2BTC. I will still have very good odds.

If you do NOT like the current state of the bet, then you should propose counter-terms that you are willing to accept.. rather than complaining about Windjc's counter-terms.   

If you really are serious about taking a bet then you have to work with possible options and it seems that Windjc's terms were within the bounds of reason... and probably tweakable.

Just make the game simple.
If btc-e,stamp,huobi,okcoin drop $20 in 30days, winjc win. If it doesn't drop $20 in 30 days, rpietila win.
Start the battle now!  

The odds are NOT established at the time that you place the bet?  That would suck, if the odds keep changing forever... the odds have to lock in at some point when the betting is closed?  like horse racing.. but this is a little different b/c the horses are running while the bets are coming in.. and they close the bets on the last lap or some silly shit like that?

In my eyes, it would be more fun, if the odds were locked in at the time that I were to place my bet.... if i were to bet... otherwise, the whole thing seems to be fucked to be betting on horses while the horses are running.

It's a derivative. Even if you believe it's going to appreciate to that level, you still always bet on it depreciating as a form of insurance.