Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28086. (Read 26709945 times)
April 20, 2014, 06:40:44 AM
Looks like we could be getting a sunday slump instead of a sunday pump this weekend..
April 20, 2014, 06:40:06 AM
What concerns me is the Jorge brings problems, not solutions even when some of these solutions are fairly obvious or already known and only require a little imagination and deduction.
The discussion started because someone (@aminorex?) claimed flatly that bitcoins are much safer than traditiional payment methods. That statement is at least unwarranted, because (1) there are many ways to steal bitcoins, (2) stealing bitcoins is easier, "safer", and more effective in many ways than stealing credit cards or bank keys, and (3) bitcoin theft is still a common occurrence in bitcoin businesses, which are supposedly run by computer-savy people. AFAIK, each year about 7 trillion dollars are paid with credit cards worldwide, of which 20 billion dollars (~0.3%) are fraudulent.
What about bitcoins? I have no idea how much is the total use of bitcoin in commerce (excluding speculation, internal shuffling, and large finance), but last year Bitpay said they paid 100 million dollars, so let's say 300 million total. The MtGOX heist alone was at least 300 million dollars. Even spread over 2 years, it alone would be 30% of all commercial use. So, I think it is pretty fair to say that bitcoin theft is a much bigger problem than credit card theft, relative to total commerce.
Yes, many of those problems could be fixed in theory; but in practice many still haven''t been fixed, and others (like the irrevocability of thefts and the near impossibility of identifying the thief) do not seem to have a solution even in theory. Others, like address phishing (tricking people to send bitcoins to the wrong address) may be done in so many ways that it seems unlikely they will have a single, simple solution. The problem is made worse by exaggerated claims of security, since they may induce users to lower their guard. (E.g., see that site that generated vanity addresses.)
And anyway, why should I find the solutions? I am the skeptic here...
By the way, the MtGOX heist must have been the largest single digital theft of all time, not just of bitcoin. Is that true? I cannot even imagine how a hacker could steal 300 million old-fashioned dollars from a company, and walk away with it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bank_robbers_and_robberies
Admittedly not exactly "hackers stealing 300M USD from a company" but look at the orders of magnitude.
Besides, if Gox really got into full blown fractional reserve in 2011, then the heist was not 300M USD, but more like 3M?
I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying you're very self-servingly selective in your examples.
April 20, 2014, 06:24:42 AM
What concerns me is the Jorge brings problems, not solutions even when some of these solutions are fairly obvious or already known and only require a little imagination and deduction.
The discussion started because someone (@aminorex?) claimed flatly that bitcoins are much safer than traditiional payment methods. That statement is at least unwarranted, because (1) there are many ways to steal bitcoins, (2) stealing bitcoins is easier, "safer", and more effective in many ways than stealing credit cards or bank keys, and (3) bitcoin theft is still a common occurrence in bitcoin businesses, which are supposedly run by computer-savy people. AFAIK, each year about 7 trillion dollars are paid with credit cards worldwide, of which 20 billion dollars (~0.3%) are fraudulent.
What about bitcoins? I have no idea how much is the total use of bitcoin in commerce (excluding speculation, internal shuffling, and large finance), but last year Bitpay said they paid 100 million dollars, so let's say 300 million total. The MtGOX heist alone was at least 300 million dollars. Even spread over 2 years, it alone would be 30% of all commercial use. So, I think it is pretty fair to say that bitcoin theft is a much bigger problem than credit card theft, relative to total commerce.
Yes, many of those problems could be fixed in theory; but in practice many still haven''t been fixed, and others (like the irrevocability of thefts and the near impossibility of identifying the thief) do not seem to have a solution even in theory. Others, like address phishing (tricking people to send bitcoins to the wrong address) may be done in so many ways that it seems unlikely they will have a single, simple solution. The problem is made worse by exaggerated claims of security, since they may induce users to lower their guard. (E.g., see that site that generated vanity addresses.)
And anyway, why should I find the solutions? I am the skeptic here...
By the way, the MtGOX heist must have been the largest single digital theft of all time, not just of bitcoin. Is that true? I cannot even imagine how a hacker could steal 300 million old-fashioned dollars from a company, and walk away with it.
April 20, 2014, 06:23:06 AM
"TA can't possibly give you a greater than 50% edge" sounds awfully similar to "it is impossible to make a living by playing poker it is all just luck" to me.
Speaking as someone who doesn't day trade, doesn't know much about TA but makes a living from poker.
Speaking as someone who doesn't day trade, doesn't know much about TA but makes a living from poker.
I think TA potentially has some value. We can all see the "ringing" from major price shifts. There's clearly some money to be lapped up there. I think survivor bias also plays into things a lot though and some people are likely deluding themselves that their TA is giving them more of an edge than it actually is and are placing themselves in somewhat of a risky position.
As you are clearly aware, poker is more than just luck. But you'd be daft to risk your life savings after winning your first few hands.
Yep. That's why when people ask me what I consider to be the most important skill of a (long-term) successful poker player I say "Bankroll management". I suspect this applies to day trading as well. Things like patience, discipline and emotional balance come in second - even though they are key, as well. I have elaborated on the similarity of daytrading and poker playing before:
You have a set amount of working capital, which you use specifically for this activity. You are trying to grow it by taking calculated risks in the form of bets in situations, where you expect that the expected value of the bet is positive. By necessity you base this decision on incomplete information so you use various means to extract accurate information (psychology, probability, statistical analysis, experience, feeling, intuition and various algorithms). You may also try to gain an advantage by sending out incorrect information about your own holdings (manipulation). You do not expect to be right and win every single time, you just need to be right enough times in comparison to the size of your bets. This means that you working capital has to be big enough in comparison to the size of your bets and their expected value to be able to withstand the variance without depleting completely. Then, if your bets have indeed mostly positive expected value, you show consistent profits over a large enough sample size.
April 20, 2014, 06:10:59 AM
My buddy recommends electrum wallets to newbies, but I haven't seen it mentioned here to protect from at least losing your coins accidentally. Is there something wrong with it that I don't know about?
I have used eletrum for some time now. Very easy to use and a deterministic seed is very helpful.
I use a combination of an offline computer for signing transaction and an online watch only wallet. This gives me the security I need while still being able to send transactions.
April 20, 2014, 06:09:01 AM
I really wonder what next week will bring in the bitcoin world.
Your turn, China.
April 20, 2014, 06:00:18 AM
April 20, 2014, 05:58:08 AM
I really wonder what next week will bring in the bitcoin world.
April 20, 2014, 05:55:42 AM
My buddy recommends electrum wallets to newbies, but I haven't seen it mentioned here to protect from at least losing your coins accidentally. Is there something wrong with it that I don't know about?
I am not familiar with it.
The main problem with software wallets that run as applications is that the security of their environment is very hard to guarantee. Ideally a hardware wallet would be a single purpose device that has very restricted input and output. There would also need to be some special restrictions on the signing authorization.
Trezor
Indeed they are really useful for new users, however pre-orders closed 6 months ago... still nothing.
I hope Trezors arrive soon to the market,
April 20, 2014, 05:49:25 AM
My buddy recommends electrum wallets to newbies, but I haven't seen it mentioned here to protect from at least losing your coins accidentally. Is there something wrong with it that I don't know about?
I am not familiar with it.
The main problem with software wallets that run as applications is that the security of their environment is very hard to guarantee. Ideally a hardware wallet would be a single purpose device that has very restricted input and output. There would also need to be some special restrictions on the signing authorization.
Trezor
April 20, 2014, 05:35:31 AM
there's 12 words they give you that you're supposed to memorize that you can use to recover them.
There is no "they". Its the application itself that generates the 12 words and gives it to you, no 3rd party involved anywhere. No "they", only you and your computer, nobody else.
Oops, that's what I meant.
April 20, 2014, 05:00:16 AM
April 20, 2014, 04:46:03 AM
there's 12 words they give you that you're supposed to memorize that you can use to recover them.
There is no "they". Its the application itself that generates the 12 words and gives it to you, no 3rd party involved anywhere. No "they", only you and your computer, nobody else.
April 20, 2014, 04:28:58 AM
EDIT: I do see that Jorge made additional posts (above) to attempt some comparison between bitcoin and various other fiat payment systems. I remain of the conclusion that his comparison are inadequate largely on the basis that the security of bitcoin is continuing to evolve. Surely there are currently some security issues with bitcoin - yet Jorge seems to be overstating them in order to spread FUD about bitcoin. I look forward to continued developments in the bitcoin space to make improvements on security b/c certainly, it remains a concern for everyone if a security issue develops or involves an individual user, then the irreversible nature of a transaction can be very problematic if one's coins get in the wrong hands.
What concerns me is the Jorge brings problems, not solutions even when some of these solutions are fairly obvious or already known and only require a little imagination and deduction. The process should be "X is a problem this is why it is unsolvable" or "X is a problem, a possible way to mitigate it might be Y" but what we appear to be getting is "X is a problem now let's run around in circles yelling like our hair is on fire"
YES!!!!! That's another good way of putting it. Every once in a while Jorge contributes some useful analysis or brings up some interesting negative facts about bitcoin or the protocol or other cryptos. However, a large majority of the time, He points out a whole shit load of problems.., and like you said, the solutions may be plenty, but he selectively spins the problem aspect(s)... These kinds of behaviors cause me to believe that he is being disingenuous in his various presentations of issues... b/c clearly he seems to know better and he seems to be capable.
Personally, I think that various posters like Jorge and some of the other FUD spreaders are actually doing a disservice to bitcoin... b/c many bitcoin evangalists are attempting to spread good words about bitcoin, and these guys (gals) are either distracting from that or spreding the opposite... which really causes longer and longer for bitcoin to receive greater adoption.. which will be better in the end for everyone (not only those who may gain financially but all the people will be advantaged by greater bitcoin adoption in order to lessen the power of banks/ and/or governments from continuing to dilute and pervert the various fiat money supply systems.
April 20, 2014, 04:26:45 AM
My buddy recommends electrum wallets to newbies, but I haven't seen it mentioned here to protect from at least losing your coins accidentally. Is there something wrong with it that I don't know about?
I am not familiar with it.
The main problem with software wallets that run as applications is that the security of their environment is very hard to guarantee. Ideally a hardware wallet would be a single purpose device that has very restricted input and output. There would also need to be some special restrictions on the signing authorization.
I don't know exactly how it works, but it's basically...I think they call it a "light" wallet, no blockchain or anything like that, and if you accidentally delete your bitcoins, there's 12 words they give you that you're supposed to memorize that you can use to recover them.
April 20, 2014, 04:22:35 AM
From the Easter Bunny I would like us to sustainably hit $525 levels
April 20, 2014, 04:17:59 AM
Takes 10 yrs screen time to see price. Once u do that u may win 51 lose 49 times but dont ask for more.. usually your edge isnt much bigger in markets.. any forex guru claiming 75%+ win rate is a scammer one way or another gauranteed. In the end its not about the fact that your system gives an edge
but how u control you emotions to execute. Thats all you need to know to make money. Easier said than done.
but how u control you emotions to execute. Thats all you need to know to make money. Easier said than done.
thats true for ignorant traders. we have unfolding fundamental themes here. the more knowledge one has, the more accurately one can read the charts. Stock traders are usually professionals in their fields, such as mining, commodities etc... they have a stronger edge.
I am not the only one here who has made more than 10x my money here. Bitcoin is a phenomena.
The forex markets are much larger and robust, randomised, and manipulated. I would agree that nobody can sytematically make 75% from that.
I also agree about the emotions, not only your emotions/logic but others aswell.
Its only10x because your an early adopter.. when average joe gets in it will be just like forex where 1 pip is like 1 mbtc movement from added liquidity.
The 1000:1 brokers are fake.. you will be requoted during news such that you always lose 75% of the time your spread will be 10x enough to break any system even if your jesse livermore..
If you keep winning they can then shut you down for no reason.. and your funds? Not so secure in cypress.. no thanks good riddance to forex. Never touch that shit again.
The hedge funds and big player collude with each other to game the system.. they offer each other inside info.. Thats not a system thats fraud. They only make money from access to info where even a teenager can out trade them. The rest of us can win if we understand the enemy.. and in forex and stocks there are too many of them now.. Broker bank and dark pools. Atleast here we know we are trading vs each other.
I keep trying to wrap my mind around these kinds of comments to leave forex b/c it is too manipulated.
Maybe I am NOT familiar enough, but bitcoin is much more able to manipulate based on its small market cap and also based on a certain tolerance of off the blockchain transactions.
My thinking is that Bitcoin is going to be highly manipulated for several years - until:
1) the market cap grows to 100 billion or maybe 1 trillion would be much better to make manipulation more difficult,
2) more transactions need to take place either on the blockchain or through trusted mechanisms (maybe sidechains will help with this),
3) I am a little conspiratorial in my thinking that the government and/or other bad actors such as banking institutions may have gotten a hold of stolen coins and are manipulating through those means - so security and ease of use will help to lessen the ability to manipulate and
4) there may be some other revisionary mechanisms that will provide reforms that I am NOT considering at the moment.
April 20, 2014, 04:14:08 AM
My buddy recommends electrum wallets to newbies, but I haven't seen it mentioned here to protect from at least losing your coins accidentally. Is there something wrong with it that I don't know about?
There is nothing wrong with it. It is safe. No need to download the blockchain, no need to backup your wallet, ever. It is fairly idiot proof which is perfect for me. Two people who I can trust with my life also have my seed so if I die, actually when, my btc lives on.
April 20, 2014, 04:01:51 AM
wow so volatility
April 20, 2014, 04:00:15 AM
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