Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28087. (Read 26709943 times)
April 20, 2014, 03:05:09 AM
Chartbuddy you sexy bitch. Let's go get a room for the night and you can tell me all about Bitcoin.
April 20, 2014, 03:00:21 AM
April 20, 2014, 02:57:16 AM
Takes 10 yrs screen time to see price. Once u do that u may win 51 lose 49 times but dont ask for more.. usually your edge isnt much bigger in markets.. any forex guru claiming 75%+ win rate is a scammer one way or another gauranteed. In the end its not about the fact that your system gives an edge
but how u control you emotions to execute. Thats all you need to know to make money. Easier said than done.
but how u control you emotions to execute. Thats all you need to know to make money. Easier said than done.
thats true for ignorant traders. we have unfolding fundamental themes here. the more knowledge one has, the more accurately one can read the charts. Stock traders are usually professionals in their fields, such as mining, commodities etc... they have a stronger edge.
I am not the only one here who has made more than 10x my money here. Bitcoin is a phenomena.
The forex markets are much larger and robust, randomised, and manipulated. I would agree that nobody can sytematically make 75% from that.
I also agree about the emotions, not only your emotions/logic but others aswell.
Its only10x because your an early adopter.. when average joe gets in it will be just like forex where 1 pip is like 1 mbtc movement from added liquidity.
The 1000:1 brokers are fake.. you will be requoted during news such that you always lose 75% of the time your spread will be 10x enough to break any system even if your jesse livermore..
If you keep winning they can then shut you down for no reason.. and your funds? Not so secure in cypress.. no thanks good riddance to forex. Never touch that shit again.
The hedge funds and big player collude with each other to game the system.. they offer each other inside info.. Thats not a system thats fraud. They only make money from access to info where even a teenager can out trade them. The rest of us can win if we understand the enemy.. and in forex and stocks there are too many of them now.. Broker bank and dark pools. Atleast here we know we are trading vs each other.
If your broker is smart, they will keep you close by if you are a good trader, and pay you every cent you make. They can copy your moves exactly. good traders make money, they find a way.
as for average joe.... the average Joe cannot have an edge in a zero sum game. the average Joe should get another job.
as for insider info, the people who build companies from the ground up will get the insider info weather you like it or not. I dont see what's wrong with that.
at the end of the day, the market goes up and down, and we are small players. We can make money if we understand exactly the problems we face. I have a positive attitude.
ps. time for average Joe has not yet come for bitcoin. 10x gains still to be made if you ask me.
April 20, 2014, 02:56:40 AM
"TA can't possibly give you a greater than 50% edge" sounds awfully similar to "it is impossible to make a living by playing poker it is all just luck" to me.
Speaking as someone who doesn't day trade, doesn't know much about TA but makes a living from poker.
Speaking as someone who doesn't day trade, doesn't know much about TA but makes a living from poker.
I agree 100%. How many people think poker is just luck...
This is a 4H exponential chart at huobi. This is the leading market, so i think it is the most relevant.
I put the 2 trendlines that bitcoin attempts to break. The first one is the linear, a big support line now as we have broke it few days ago. The retest of the trendline validate the break.
We are now evolving between the 2 trendlines and heading to break the exponentiel one that chinese have broke before but western exchange didn t.
I also put two fibonacci retracement. The big one, from the ATH to the bottom of april, has its first retracement line (78.6%) at 3460 exactly where the price bounced back. Is it coincidence?
I don t know for sure where the price is heading, but i like to see what big players are showing us.
You could just discard TA, but this is usefull information in any markets. As long as human people will trade them, they will use support and resistance line to put their orders. The price action at those levels shows us the strenght in the trend.
As for the myriad of indicators, i dont use them as they are lagging. You cannot manipulate where people are willing to put their orders, but you can use macd (for example) to manipulate the market, leaving people believe that TA is irrelevant.
April 20, 2014, 02:56:24 AM
"TA can't possibly give you a greater than 50% edge" sounds awfully similar to "it is impossible to make a living by playing poker it is all just luck" to me.
Speaking as someone who doesn't day trade, doesn't know much about TA but makes a living from poker.
Speaking as someone who doesn't day trade, doesn't know much about TA but makes a living from poker.
People tend to overrate themselves on pretty much everything that they're not amazing at (and ironically may sometimes doubt themselves if they are actually good), so obviously if they can't do it, it can't be possible. That's usually why losing players/traders say it's not possible, and winning players/traders question every single move that cost them money.
April 20, 2014, 02:42:26 AM
"TA can't possibly give you a greater than 50% edge" sounds awfully similar to "it is impossible to make a living by playing poker it is all just luck" to me.
Speaking as someone who doesn't day trade, doesn't know much about TA but makes a living from poker.
Speaking as someone who doesn't day trade, doesn't know much about TA but makes a living from poker.
I think TA potentially has some value. We can all see the "ringing" from major price shifts. There's clearly some money to be lapped up there. I think survivor bias also plays into things a lot though and some people are likely deluding themselves that their TA is giving them more of an edge than it actually is and are placing themselves in somewhat of a risky position.
As you are clearly aware, poker is more than just luck. But you'd be daft to risk your life savings after winning your first few hands.
April 20, 2014, 02:33:42 AM
My buddy recommends electrum wallets to newbies, but I haven't seen it mentioned here to protect from at least losing your coins accidentally. Is there something wrong with it that I don't know about?
I am not familiar with it.
The main problem with software wallets that run as applications is that the security of their environment is very hard to guarantee. Ideally a hardware wallet would be a single purpose device that has very restricted input and output. There would also need to be some special restrictions on the signing authorization.
April 20, 2014, 02:28:35 AM
"TA can't possibly give you a greater than 50% edge" sounds awfully similar to "it is impossible to make a living by playing poker it is all just luck" to me.
Speaking as someone who doesn't day trade, doesn't know much about TA but makes a living from poker.
Speaking as someone who doesn't day trade, doesn't know much about TA but makes a living from poker.
April 20, 2014, 02:13:55 AM
Double spending is not at all a problem with fiat. Neither cash nor credit. Counterfeinting and (succesful) attacks on cards, POS'es, ATMs yes, but not double spending. You cannot clone Benjamin. At least not a fictive but definitely produceable quantum Benjamin that cannot be cloned.
Creating fake bills and using them is doble spending. So yes, cash has that problem.
It is not clear to me that any fiat is NOT double spending. Certainly counterfeiting can be construed thus, but what else is fractional reserve lending?
Good point.
April 20, 2014, 02:08:11 AM
Gox is far is a total loss for its customers. Inflation isn't that harsh :-P
Gox didn't touch me at all (other than the affect it had on price which will balance out long term). Inflation will get you no matter how carefully you lock your dollars away.
April 20, 2014, 02:00:15 AM
April 20, 2014, 01:59:45 AM
EDIT: I do see that Jorge made additional posts (above) to attempt some comparison between bitcoin and various other fiat payment systems. I remain of the conclusion that his comparison are inadequate largely on the basis that the security of bitcoin is continuing to evolve. Surely there are currently some security issues with bitcoin - yet Jorge seems to be overstating them in order to spread FUD about bitcoin. I look forward to continued developments in the bitcoin space to make improvements on security b/c certainly, it remains a concern for everyone if a security issue develops or involves an individual user, then the irreversible nature of a transaction can be very problematic if one's coins get in the wrong hands.
What concerns me is the Jorge brings problems, not solutions even when some of these solutions are fairly obvious or already known and only require a little imagination and deduction. The process should be "X is a problem this is why it is unsolvable" or "X is a problem, a possible way to mitigate it might be Y" but what we appear to be getting is "X is a problem now let's run around in circles yelling like our hair is on fire"
Here are some issues and solutions that have been addressed with an existing service, credit cards:
o Credit card numbers on receipts lead to theft (Yes, they used to do this.) Solution: Receipts now show only four digits of cards
o Front of card has all data needed for a purchase: Solution CCV codes
o CCV codes can be seen: No solution from providers. Some customers memorize then remove CCV codes.
o Cards can be "skimmed" by untrustworthy waiters. No solution from providers. Recommendation is for customer to not relinquish control of their card. (Somewhat hard to actually do)
April 20, 2014, 01:59:41 AM
But we do not need to discuss theory. The MtGOX heist alone stole 5% of all the money in the bitcoin economy. There have been dozens, if not hundreds, of other heists; the total may be 10% of all the money. AFAIK, none of those thieves has been identified, much less caught; and none of those stolen coins were retrieved.
That is 10% of all the money in 5 years, which is 2% per year.
Inflation alone steals 3-9% of our money every year.
Try harder
Devaluation of bitcoin has stolen ~50% of your money in the last two months.
Your turn.
I "lost" (I haven't actually lost anything with Bitcoin) far more in absolute terms and not far off in relative terms when the pound fell 20% against the dollar in a matter of days several years ago almost simultaneous with the artificially manipulated housing bubble bursting.
And yes, computer security issues do affect Bitcoin which is why we have paper/offline wallets. These are somewhat inconvenient and not the complete answer but hardware wallets are coming and these will provide a huge amount of improved security (third party hardware cryptography devices have been available for applications which truly need security for a while now. Why would Bitcoin be any different?)
My buddy recommends electrum wallets to newbies, but I haven't seen it mentioned here to protect from at least losing your coins accidentally. Is there something wrong with it that I don't know about?
April 20, 2014, 01:53:32 AM
But we do not need to discuss theory. The MtGOX heist alone stole 5% of all the money in the bitcoin economy. There have been dozens, if not hundreds, of other heists; the total may be 10% of all the money. AFAIK, none of those thieves has been identified, much less caught; and none of those stolen coins were retrieved.
That is 10% of all the money in 5 years, which is 2% per year.
Inflation alone steals 3-9% of our money every year.
Try harder
Devaluation of bitcoin has stolen ~50% of your money in the last two months.
Your turn.
I "lost" (I haven't actually lost anything with Bitcoin) far more in absolute terms and not far off in relative terms when the pound fell 20% against the dollar in a matter of days several years ago almost simultaneous with the artificially manipulated housing bubble bursting.
And yes, computer security issues do affect Bitcoin which is why we have paper/offline wallets. These are somewhat inconvenient and not the complete answer but hardware wallets are coming and these will provide a huge amount of improved security (third party hardware cryptography devices have been available for applications which truly need security for a while now. Why would Bitcoin be any different?)
April 20, 2014, 01:31:40 AM
Jesus, chessnut. What did you do to make them hate you so much! 
April 20, 2014, 01:11:11 AM
Takes 10 yrs screen time to see price. Once u do that u may win 51 lose 49 times but dont ask for more.. usually your edge isnt much bigger in markets.. any forex guru claiming 75%+ win rate is a scammer one way or another gauranteed. In the end its not about the fact that your system gives an edge
but how u control you emotions to execute. Thats all you need to know to make money. Easier said than done.
but how u control you emotions to execute. Thats all you need to know to make money. Easier said than done.
thats true for ignorant traders. we have unfolding fundamental themes here. the more knowledge one has, the more accurately one can read the charts. Stock traders are usually professionals in their fields, such as mining, commodities etc... they have a stronger edge.
I am not the only one here who has made more than 10x my money here. Bitcoin is a phenomena.
The forex markets are much larger and robust, randomised, and manipulated. I would agree that nobody can sytematically make 75% from that.
I also agree about the emotions, not only your emotions/logic but others aswell.
Its only10x because your an early adopter.. when average joe gets in it will be just like forex where 1 pip is like 1 mbtc movement from added liquidity.
The 1000:1 brokers are fake.. you will be requoted during news such that you always lose 75% of the time your spread will be 10x enough to break any system even if your jesse livermore..
If you keep winning they can then shut you down for no reason.. and your funds? Not so secure in cypress.. no thanks good riddance to forex. Never touch that shit again.
The hedge funds and big player collude with each other to game the system.. they offer each other inside info.. Thats not a system thats fraud. They only make money from access to info where even a teenager can out trade them. The rest of us can win if we understand the enemy.. and in forex and stocks there are too many of them now.. Broker bank and dark pools. Atleast here we know we are trading vs each other.
April 20, 2014, 01:08:03 AM
Here it comes
Bitcoin's uptrend ressurection for Easter?
April 20, 2014, 01:04:18 AM
Here it comes
April 20, 2014, 01:00:17 AM
April 20, 2014, 12:41:35 AM
3d MACD crossing, we're going up at least 100$
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