Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28111. (Read 26709752 times)

Oh! Wel, well, well... 

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

Agreed, it's a beauty!
Might reduce bitcoin volatility by itself if stickied in newb section  .

$494 now.  And next we will slowly roll up to $498.

Explanation

    You are hilarious.. especially when I agree with you.  You have been less "hilarious" when we disagreed.. he he he.. whatever... 

I am glad you did NOT take my comment personally, b/c I did NOT mean it to be in any kind of judgmental way. I already understand that people have a variety of personalities and some styles will NOT easily fit some people.   Accordingly, each of us looks for, and hopefully finds the style(s) that works for him/her.

Personally, I would go crazy, if I were to employ a form of balls to the walls type investing.  I prefer incremental investments and continuous readjustments.  Though I am sure over the years my style has evolved somewhat.  Nonetheless, I have always been somewhat of a saver... yet I have quite a few friends who are NOT of that personality type. 

Actually, probably the majority of people have pretty loose savings plans (whether rich or poor), and certainly, the ones with the larger paychecks can get away with more screw ups... but even well to do people can get into a pickle if they overextend themselves into consuming way more than what is within their incomes.

yup, it's pretty cool, all 4 can still play video games just fine, but only 1 out of those 4 can still mine at more than 80% load.

(that one good card was still doing about 120% above spec before I simply gave up mining on scrypt - not enough amps left to feed the SHA-256 asics, though I am tempted by the scrypt asics, I think that one chain will always be considered stronger than all the others, and anything serious will be built as a sidechain of the main chain.)

Ah, slowrolled by a lurker! I respect your approach, actually. I did the same thing as you, read for months and months before I even created an account.

You're 100% correct that I don't know you, which is why I never spoke in certainties. I just went on the information you gave us in your posts, which was relatively quite a bit for only 7 posts, you've got to admit. It was enough for me to be comfortable with the assumptions I made even though they turned out to be somewhat incorrect. When the risk is not great, and here it was not, I'm fine working with limited information.

If my post does not help you, I'm pretty sure it will help someone. If you feel you've got the knowledge, who am I to argue? Now you've got to apply it. But based on the last portion of your response, you knew that already.

You may want to consider a form of dollar cost averaging.  That's what i do.  You can tailor the dollar cost averaging to your budget. 

I had a similar situation to yours, in that I started with my research into bitcoin in November 2013, yet I had $30k that I could invest into bitcoin.  Accordingly, I decided to spread that $30k over 6 months, b/c I knew that BTC had just had a pretty large bullrun (at the end of November 2013).

Anyhow, my point is that you could budget as little as $50 a month for your investment, and it will add up over time.  Then you could invest daily, weekly, monthly or whatever increment is comfortable for you.  In the beginning you may want to front load a little bit.  So let's say you have $2,000 and then thereafter $50 per month.  You determine your strategy, but you may say that you want to invest the whole $2000 right away (which I would NOT do, but to each his own), or you may say that you would strategically invest $500 for each of the first two weeks, and then you would invest $250 per week for each of the four weeks after that and then go to your $50 per month plan... or you could figure out something more active.  I did daily purchases for my first three weeks or something like that.

Surely, you seem more eager than planning out a strategy, but once you figure out the variety of your expenses, then you should NOT feel compelled to leverage (or borrow money) in order to invest.  Leveraging is more of an advance player's move who is really familiar and confident in his/her ability to make the money back b/c of experience in having had done it repeated times and having a back up position in case the leverage does NOT pay off. 

Anyhow, my point is once you build up various systems of investing, then you build up a nest egg.. and maybe one or two or five years down the road, you can transfer that nest egg into something that is really ground floor and where you have built up your capital (that is how I had gotten my $30k that i had available to invest into btc in the end of 2013 and that was NOT my total available money, only the money that I had consciously allocated for crypto investing).

Explanation

Epic guile in sarcasm. Lolol BT Goddess. Anyhow, while it's true that b/c crypto is such a groundbreaking innovation, a necessary, long-coming idea, that it's no wonder the last 3-4 years have been a rocket launch for both market price & economic adoption, advocating 'long-term' near-blindly is only fine & dandy until you realize you're not a vampire or multicentennial android or alien - and so, do you really want to wait possibly decades..??

Thanks... for your responses.

I agree that you get even a bigger bonus out of your purchase of the item (the 7970) if you are able to multi-purpose it.

I agree with you that there can be a large number of variables, and some of the variables are 1) clearly and unambiguously connected, 2) likely connected, 3) likely not connected and 4) clearly NOT connected.

The mere fact that you may have NOT have seen any scintilla of evidence of a connection during your selected period of time, does NOT mean that the logical conclusion is that N(T) and P(T) are clearly NOT connected.  The explanation can be that there are larger overriding forces at play during that period of time that are interfering with the connection with N(T) and P(T). 

Great attempt to send this topic out on a wild goose chase, but neither of us have provided data to rebutt a claim of a connection or NOT; however, the claim sure as hell makes sense to me that if you get an increased number of users of bitcoin, then the price is likely going to go up with the increased number of users.  Even though wallets are NOT a direct measurement of users, it is a good enough approximation of there being an increase in the number of users... which will likely have a direct correlating positive effect on BTC prices (at least that seems to be the theory that Aminorex was postulating).













Again, you seem to be striving to take this on some wild goose chase by making some extreme example....  However, your extreme example seems to work against you and to support my argument about what you are doing by your time selectivity.

 Let me see if I can use the same example to help to clarify the point.

You are correct that if we compare the USA economy over 600 years to the last 6 months in order to make some kind of a point, then that point is going to be lost b/c a lot has gone on in 600 years that may or may NOT be helpful.

I am merely telling you that it is NOT a good idea to continue to begin from the top of the bubble to make your repetitive points.  I think that you are doing it on purpose in order to communicate about jibberish... and maybe I should NOT be entertaining you (or as they say feeding the trolls).  Certainly, you seem smart enough to know better and to pick some more meaningful time period, instead of trying to exaggerate to the max... when you exaggerate to the max, then you lose any sense of credibility or objectivity in my reading.. and you are also distracting and confusing others who may NOT realize the extent of your selectivity in making your supposedly academic points.  I have NO idea about whether you are really a professor, like you claim to be, yet certainly, you seem to be doing much disservice to academics by projecting yourself as such in the bitcoin sphere... you frequently take the posters in this thread away from actual facts with your skewed and seemingly disingenuous spins that are subtle enough to sometimes miss b/c frequently, your presentations are packaged with a decent and comprehensive organization.. with good English...

I would imagine if you really are a professor in Brazil, then you teach in portuguese, not in english.. so how come your english is so good?










First of all.. why did you edit out some of the text of my earlier post?

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Third:  You are correct that I am frustrated by the ongoing downtrend in BTC prices since December, but my frustration about BTC prices downtrending is NOT a motivation for me to comment upon your post(s).  Overall, I feel pretty comfortable that my investment strategy is going to pay off fairly lucratively - even though I am putting more time into monitoring and tweaking my investment plan b/c of the various aspects of the BTC price performance since December 2013.  You know that in the end, my time will likely pay off pretty well too.. b/c I have accumulated way more bitcoins than I had expected that I would be able to accumulate... ... anyhow, time will tell about my bitcoin investment, and I am NOT too worried yet.. even though I remain a bit frustrated.. as you mentioned.

The rest of your content here.. is merely humor that is seemly directed at my expense.  I did find it quite a bit funny, even though irrelevant, and NOT really applicable to me, but still fairly artfully presented... so yes, made me chuckle a little bit at getting some misdirected attention.      

nope. you got me pegged, definitely NOT the saving type

 I mined a bunch of different coins, and have almost none left. Luckily, if things go the way I hope they are gonna go, then "almost none" will be "just enough".

 Hmmm  And how well I know, about them. Their posting, and trading/thought patterns, are predictable, at this point.

 ..What I haven't revealed so far is that I've read this thread almost exclusively, 15-30hrs a week on average, since Jan 11th this year. I literally read every page (good bit of skimming at times, admittedly - no other way, if going through that much..) since back when we were at the 3900's of posts & Arcas, Empowering, Luno, 'Doc' Holliday (I miss his wry humor..) & Goat/Loaded were still seen posting in here.

 I just made the acct not because I just 'discovered' trading or crypto/etc, but because I simply don't like to waste people's time w/ yet more repetitive dribble, there's already 6k of it in here ffs.. lol. If I'm gonna post, I want it to have some effort put into, so there's a small chance at least 1 person might find it of any value, instead of moar spam. So.. that effort? THAT is why I waited that long to make this acct. I procrastinated. The Activity:5 is a lie.. xD

 But, I love this place. I truly appreciate it, esp. TER, BJA, Keyser, Adam, Amino, Blitz & even Jorge & Fonzie's trollishness. And I did learn some tricks from it. Nevertheless, I find myself rolling my eyes knowingly, with a faint smirk, to all these ignorant grand proclamations of 'sUingle d1gitz dAwq' '$9.99' & '7-50k within 2014' from the same amused cognizance that all you veterans experience ;p  I just did it as a 'Guest', until yesterday.

 As for BTC itself, I didn't know it existed until Sept '13. In Oct. I knew about prices weekly. By Nov., I knew about them twice a day. In early Nov. I bought my very first BTC. In very late Nov., after some epiphany of curiosity & googling, & came upon Cryptsy. I sent them .01 only, thinking they may easily be a scam. After couple test trades & withdrawals went through fine, only then did I send moar in.

 I missed the wave. Could've been a thousandnaire like you guys by now had I got in most of these small-time alts back in Oct-to-Mid-Late-Nov at the latest. But by the time I was familiar w/ it all, it was too late. Nov 18 Congress 'endorsement' & all the crazy Cryptsy/alt price explosions had mostly taken place already, it was dumping time, and I indeed lost a good portion of the equity I had been lucky enough to make.


 I do panic-buy, and short, and sell. Too much in fact. But I've done too little before, too. A balance is crucial. Here's an example : The last time Stamp was around 533-537, that was a great time to get out. I didn't. I knew I should've, but held. The 540's high was not able to be reached again. It had to not only reach it, but BREAK thru it in order to be safely confident about a greater high, the new bull minitrend continuing, etc. It didn't even have the fuel to reach it. Obviously Huobi & Co are desperate to not correct further, and keep going up, but it's just not happening. The correction has to occur, and at least a moderate bit farther than merely 3020/481.

 I do over-invest, it's easier to be on the safer side of trading when one has more capital to play with. But that will come in due time. A good thing about smaller sums is that, well, if you do get wiped out, you can find the same small sum to invest again within a month or a quarter's wages. I've done it before, sadly, and it's far from people here's mortgages money & life savings etc

 Too desperate and you lose. Too complacent/long-term and you lose too. I've lost since 2005. (stocks & FX, not crypto....) Some years w/o any trading, some w/ holding on to bad practices, 'holding on' for 'long-term' in various ways. Balance is key, speaking from experience.


 No question. Too bad I was doing FX & not crypto, back in '11-'12 & most of '13.


 Claiming to glean anything of insight on 7 posts made over ~24 hrs is like trying to predict the price trend over the next few weeks by looking only at the 1-minute chart on 'Wisdom 

 ..So! Thanks for your attempt, it was actually very entertaining ;p  Seriously, no offense taken, you could've have truly known I was that far from a newbie. I appreciate the intention to help, I trust it is genuine. And what you said is absolutely good advice ..which I already knew. Just have hard time applying the knowledge. Discipline, & capital.

Remember remember, the 5th of December

My answers in RED  

If the number of active wallets N(T) was connected to the price P(T), in four months during which P(T) varied up and down several times, by 40% or more,  we would expect to see at least some corresponding variation in N(T).  I don't see that.

If we are supposed to look only at the long term (3 years) and ignore any deviations spanning 4 months or more, then the statement is not convincing because we get two steadily exponentially quantities, so that any other exponentially increasing quantity -- such as the increasing quantity of CO2 in the air -- would "explain" the increase inP(T) just as well as N(T).


I don't know why some Americans are worried about the American economy; if one looks at the last 600 years, ignoring small variations, it has been a tremendous growth. 


It is a pity that my Exemplary Lesson got punctured, you would definitely need to get it now.

Look, I understand that you are frustrated by this irrelevant price oscillation that has been going on since December.  But it is not my fault, is it?  You must have done something to deserve such punishment from the Bitcoin Goddess.  Did you perchance tread into her temple with dirty shoes?  Break a sacred jade mirror? Kill an albatross? Offend an old teacher?

+1

Explanation