Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28113.

silverfuture

legendary

Activity: 947

Merit: 1008

central banking = outdated protocol

Quote from: chessnut on April 17, 2014, 07:58:27 PM

Quote from: strawbs on April 17, 2014, 07:45:01 PM

Quote from: shmadz on April 17, 2014, 06:04:29 PM

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

I think that's pretty sound advice Cheesy

seriously though.

confirmed

ChartBuddy

legendary

Activity: 2380

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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: strawbs on April 17, 2014, 07:45:01 PM

Quote from: shmadz on April 17, 2014, 06:04:29 PM

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

I think that's pretty sound advice Cheesy

seriously though.

Post-Cosmic

full member

Activity: 175

Merit: 100

Quote from: strawbs on April 17, 2014, 07:45:01 PM

Quote from: shmadz on April 17, 2014, 06:04:29 PM

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

..

..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

strawbs

legendary

Activity: 875

Merit: 1362

Quote from: shmadz on April 17, 2014, 06:04:29 PM

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

Post-Cosmic

full member

Activity: 175

Merit: 100

LOL for some reason this makes me laugh Shocked

~> http://bitbet.us/bet/804/obama-will-mention-bitcoin-before-2015/

scriptcloud

newbie

Activity: 33

Merit: 0

Do you guys have an estimate on whats the price of BTC in the next 6 months?

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Quote from: aminorex on April 17, 2014, 05:36:05 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 17, 2014, 05:24:32 PM

floating around at $500 is NOT so exciting

Here's the fundamental basis for the rising value of bitcoin: Active wallets Value follows roughly as the square of this figure. It doesn't move fast enough to be exciting. What does happen, though, is that price deviates from its fundamentals relatively rapidly. That's when you adjust your long-term core position, according as price is a fraction or a multiple of value. It's not daytrading, but as a slow and stately strategy it is very lucrative.

But there does not seem to be a positive correlation between that number and the price, since December:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=30&show_header=true&scale=0

In fact, from Dec/01 to Feb/28, the correlation seems to be strongly negative - when one increases, the other decreases.

By the way, why would that number N(T) decrease? Does it exclude addresses that are were used before time T but are empty at time T?

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday April 18

Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-04-18, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3001 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 483 USD

[ Plot legend ]

EDIT: legend link fixed

Today's data point was very good, (S = 0.0009, W = 0.982), but substantially below the previously assumed trendline. It does not seem possible to fit the last three or four points into a plausible trendline. (A parabola might do, but it is hard to justify it in terms of fundamentals.) So we assumed trend break, and a new straight line trend defined by the last two points only; namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/16, A = 3185 and B = -92.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.21 CNY/USD. It was 6.21, 6.23, 6.32, 6.38, 6.21 at the last five Slumber Times.

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-16, 22:59 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-04-17, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Punished for being bull, again:

Huobi's predicted price: 3198 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3093 CNY
Error: 105 CNY (~17 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 513 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 498 USD
Error: 15 USD

NOTE: "You don't even have a clue as to which clue you're missing." -- Miss Manners

ChartBuddy

legendary

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Explanation

shmadz

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1000

@theshmadz

Quote from: Adrian-x on April 17, 2014, 06:51:58 PM

Quote from: shmadz on April 17, 2014, 06:47:07 PM

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating Wink

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.

yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.

I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.

boumalo

legendary

Activity: 1918

Merit: 1018

Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 17, 2014, 06:44:56 PM

Quote from: y3804 on April 17, 2014, 06:17:59 PM

Quote from: chessnut on April 17, 2014, 06:14:37 PM

Quote from: y3804 on April 17, 2014, 06:00:38 PM

Bear flag? There doesn't seem to be any buying power supporting those small dumps. At least 100BTC dumped and I only see small 0.05 buys

this is my non biased day trading approach. Cheesy

in case it is a bear flag. also break below 490 would be a pretty strong bear signal.

I'm a noob trader (no TA, only trade following news). Which indicators should reveal which direction BTC is heading short-term? Or am I supposed to watch the market book every minute and wait for a dump/pump?

You're gonna get eaten alive.

He can get lucky in the short term but odds are you will sell low and buy high

Adrian-x

legendary

Activity: 1372

Merit: 1000

Quote from: shmadz on April 17, 2014, 06:47:07 PM

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating Wink

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.

shmadz

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1000

@theshmadz

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: shmadz on April 17, 2014, 06:04:29 PM

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

I was planning on just sitting this one out, I'm still paying interest on the money I borrowed to buy that last dip, but when we broke down below 400 on virtex I also broke down and tried to get some money in.

That money has finally landed at the exchange. I was planning on using half to just buy whatever I could immediately and then set a tranche down to 300 with the rest, but I was also planning on the money arriving on Monday...

mostly just wondering what you guys would do right now.

The first rule of Bitcoin is we don't invest more than we can afford to lose!
Call me lucky, I got a few coins just above 400 on the cavertex dip last week and my second deposit cleared the following Monday.
I haven't sold yet, and my seconds deposit will be used to support the $350 if we trend down, and buy in at 660 if we are trending up after 30 days.

If you want my advice and I'd calculate the cost of the having money on the exchange for the next 4 months then write it off. Then I'd play it safe on trading swings where you are comfortable.

A bubble could form within a month or two, or if trade volume subsides we maybe as long as 6-12 months. I've invested a little of that cheep coin in alt, and think we may have growth there before we see it a boom in Bitcoin. (the "smart" money is sounding too confident in my view to see an early boom, I think it is the big of exchange hoarders who are the ones who have to release some liquidity before we drink Campaign)

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating Wink

ShroomsKit

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

Quote from: y3804 on April 17, 2014, 06:17:59 PM

Quote from: chessnut on April 17, 2014, 06:14:37 PM

Quote from: y3804 on April 17, 2014, 06:00:38 PM

Bear flag? There doesn't seem to be any buying power supporting those small dumps. At least 100BTC dumped and I only see small 0.05 buys

this is my non biased day trading approach. Cheesy

in case it is a bear flag. also break below 490 would be a pretty strong bear signal.

I'm a noob trader (no TA, only trade following news). Which indicators should reveal which direction BTC is heading short-term? Or am I supposed to watch the market book every minute and wait for a dump/pump?

You're gonna get eaten alive.

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: y3804 on April 17, 2014, 06:17:59 PM

I'm a noob trader (no TA, only trade following news). Which indicators should reveal which direction BTC is heading short-term? Or am I supposed to watch the market book every minute and wait for a dump/pump?

If you are a noob, dont day trade. simple as that. just hold. in few years you will have seen everything on the market, seen a lot of TA, and then maybe you can experiment.

y3804

sr. member

Activity: 406

Merit: 250

Quote from: chessnut on April 17, 2014, 06:14:37 PM

Quote from: y3804 on April 17, 2014, 06:00:38 PM

Bear flag? There doesn't seem to be any buying power supporting those small dumps. At least 100BTC dumped and I only see small 0.05 buys

this is my non biased day trading approach. Cheesy

in case it is a bear flag. also break below 490 would be a pretty strong bear signal.

I'm a noob trader (no TA, only trade following news). Which indicators should reveal which direction BTC is heading short-term? Or am I supposed to watch the market book every minute and wait for a dump/pump?

chessnut

legendary

Activity: 924

Merit: 1001

Quote from: y3804 on April 17, 2014, 06:00:38 PM

Bear flag? There doesn't seem to be any buying power supporting those small dumps. At least 100BTC dumped and I only see small 0.05 buys

this is my non biased day trading approach. Cheesy

in case it is a bear flag. also break below 490 would be a pretty strong bear signal.

shmadz

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1000

@theshmadz

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

I was planning on just sitting this one out, I'm still paying interest on the money I borrowed to buy that last dip, but when we broke down below 400 on virtex I also broke down and tried to get some more money in.

That money has finally landed at the exchange. I was planning on using half to just buy whatever I could immediately and then set a tranche down to 300 with the rest, but I was also planning on the money arriving on Monday...

mostly just wondering what you guys would do right now.

tsm13

member

Activity: 95

Merit: 10

Something
Peculiar
Excites
China
Understandably
Look
After
Time
Instead
Of
Now

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