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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28207. (Read 26710141 times)

legendary
Activity: 876
Merit: 1000
BTC gets it's price because it is traceable to USD and to the other fiat currencies that are also dependant on USD. Go pick up a book and read on what does it mean that USD is the most dominant world reserve currency and what effect does it give to other fiat currencies.
Are my turds worth 450$ a piece too?  I am sure I can exchange them for USD too, so that's where they get their value, right?


If someone would be foolish enough to buy your turds for 450 USD, then USD would be exactly the thing that gives your turds value. Just like with BTC.
Ya and will his turd pay the power bill to?? lol

If services that convert his turds right to USD, like BitPay and billpayforcoins, start to accept his turds also, then sure. Companies would be ready to accept both bitcoin or his turds, just as long as it's converted to USD right away.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes Smiley

(I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol  Cheesy )


Well, then the account of this highly intelligent individual has been compromised by an moronic jackass who he can't even understand how USD is actually THE thing that gives value to BTC? Smiley

Another example of your truly either NOT knowing what da fuck you are talking about or that you are purposefully just attempting to incite other posters.

At least try to debate against my arguments, not just make another failed attempt to insult me.
Have a cigarette, read a book, make some notes, relieve yourself from the anxiety of not getting rich without any work or education, and then try really hard. Please..


Yeah.. YOU would love to drag a variety of posters down your bullshit superficial and already debunked framings of the situation.  

That is NOT an intellectual exercise or a meaningful debate, it is a waste of time.  

I already know your MO.  As soon as anybody attempts to reasonably discuss your assertions with you, then you will either change the facts or change the topic or come up with some other bullshit highly speculative scenario that has little to NO basis in reality.  

In conclusion, largely a waste of time to accept many of your framings of the situation  b/c you are far from being genuine in any kind of attempt to deal in the real world and to account for actual facts.



The facts here are simple. BTC price is dependant on USD and it can be seen by merchants not willing to accept BTC without BitPay converting them right to USD. To those merchants, BTC is useless as a currency because it's not able to keep price stability. Only use they have for BTC is for marketing reasons and a possibility to lure in those who worship BTC.

Now, go, run boy. Buy yourself a brain and try to debate that.


Yes.. you have a way of denigrating... Whether this is a debate or NOT... maybe you are attempting to lure me into your various stupid-ass topics one by one. 

O.k.  I will bite a little bit.

Currently almost everything is pegged to the dollar, and the dollar is the most stable value point, at the moment in part because in its various forms it has nearly 20 trillion in various kinds of circulation. 


These value point and reference points can change over time and they likely will change over time.  As bitcoin gains more market capitalization and more liquidation possibilities, there will be less need to peg it to the dollar or to value it as compared with the dollar.  Part of whether there will be a need to continue to peg BTC to the dollar will depend upon adoption levels of BTC - likely at least several years into the future in my thinking before BTC will NOT be pegged to some other currency - whether the dollar or some other currency. 

Five years from now, we may be living in a different world, or if the dollar expectantly crashes, which is possible but not likely in the next several years in my thinking, unless there is a viable replacement, then we may see BTC pegged to some other currency... or if BTC were to achieve a trillion dollar market cap, then it may NOT need to be pegged to anything... possibly...  It is also possible that more than a trillion dollar market cap will be needed before we can have a world with BTC that is NOT pegged to some other asset or currency... maybe $10 trillion in today's valuations would do?
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035

And more some weak attempts to insult + some weird rant that has nothing to do with the subject in question:

BTC is dependant on USD and would join the meltdown with USD if that would happen.

In another note.. I'll add my rant..
I just discovered that over time, tools like you have actually made me dislike BTC. I really used to like BTC, but after the endless conversations with the uneducated and inexperienced religious zealots, who are both ignorant and arrogant at the same time, I think that BTC would actually just be about wealth redistribution to the worse. People here are reminding me of Bolsheviks more and more. A bunch of half-witted individuals who are after personal gain with wealth/power redistribution while trying to mask it with talks of liberty and freedom.

in a meltdown maybe yes, but that was not what the subject was about

Anyway, i'm done with u
legendary
Activity: 1638
Merit: 1001
₪``Campaign Manager´´₪
BTC gets it's price because it is traceable to USD and to the other fiat currencies that are also dependant on USD. Go pick up a book and read on what does it mean that USD is the most dominant world reserve currency and what effect does it give to other fiat currencies.
Are my turds worth 450$ a piece too?  I am sure I can exchange them for USD too, so that's where they get their value, right?


If someone would be foolish enough to buy your turds for 450 USD, then USD would be exactly the thing that gives your turds value. Just like with BTC.
Speechless...

Did you read those economics books, or did somebody hit you on the head with them?
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
(see my previous post, and this thread for the ownership distribution).
I saw that thread a while ago.  Congratulations for doing that work; I wish that there was more data like that.
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1000
BTC gets it's price because it is traceable to USD and to the other fiat currencies that are also dependant on USD. Go pick up a book and read on what does it mean that USD is the most dominant world reserve currency and what effect does it give to other fiat currencies.
Are my turds worth 450$ a piece too?  I am sure I can exchange them for USD too, so that's where they get their value, right?


If someone would be foolish enough to buy your turds for 450 USD, then USD would be exactly the thing that gives your turds value. Just like with BTC.
Ya and will his turd pay the power bill to?? lol
hero member
Activity: 980
Merit: 1001
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1000
I feel so guilty,,, I dumped 1.00 btc today @ 464.00 lol sorry but the power bill is due next week Sad
I know Hodl
legendary
Activity: 876
Merit: 1000
BTC gets it's price because it is traceable to USD and to the other fiat currencies that are also dependant on USD. Go pick up a book and read on what does it mean that USD is the most dominant world reserve currency and what effect does it give to other fiat currencies.
Are my turds worth 450$ a piece too?  I am sure I can exchange them for USD too, so that's where they get their value, right?


If someone would be foolish enough to buy your turds for 450 USD, then USD would be exactly the thing that gives your turds value. Just like with BTC.
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1000
as long as you turn that back to btc, then I'll permit your position taking lol
Most definitely  Wink
legendary
Activity: 1638
Merit: 1001
₪``Campaign Manager´´₪
BTC gets it's price because it is traceable to USD and to the other fiat currencies that are also dependant on USD. Go pick up a book and read on what does it mean that USD is the most dominant world reserve currency and what effect does it give to other fiat currencies.
Are my turds worth 450$ a piece too?  I am sure I can exchange them for USD too, so that's where they get their value, right?
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
as long as you turn that back to btc, then I'll permit your position taking lol
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1000
damn I should have bought up black coin last night at .00051000 it recently just broke .00090000 Its the next BTC lol, well some say"  Grin
legendary
Activity: 876
Merit: 1000

Aaand... we have another weak attempt to insult, without actually trying to debate the initial point that was made here.

I don't need to do anything but to tell you that you are wrong
I'm reading some of the most stupid arguments i've ever witnessed on this forum. Did you even think at all when posting?

It is a currency/asset which have had a ROI of 120,000 and nobody still barely have a clue where it is going, OF COURSE it will be volatile. Why can't you understand volatility will be reduced alot if it were to succeed

It's kinda if I were to make a drink in my basement that would sell better then coca cola and wonder why i'm not a billionaire yet

No offence though, its all neighborhood Grin

And more some weak attempts to insult + some weird rant that has nothing to do with the subject in question:

BTC is dependant on USD and would join the meltdown with USD if that would happen.

In another note.. I'll add my rant..
I just discovered that over time, tools like you have actually made me dislike BTC. I really used to like BTC, but after the endless conversations with the uneducated and inexperienced religious zealots, who are both ignorant and arrogant at the same time, I think that BTC would actually just be about wealth redistribution to the worse. People here are reminding me of Bolsheviks more and more. A bunch of half-witted individuals who are after personal gain with wealth/power redistribution while trying to mask it with talks of liberty and freedom.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code

e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%


This is ridiculous. The price has been above $500 for >80%  of 2014 and is only 10% away from $500 right now. The odds that it will trade at some point over $500 this year must be more like 90% than 30%.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
This is a very dangerous game. The levered shorts are hoping another China crash will come before they are force liquidated and the levered longs are counting on the shorts getting liquidated before the crash. Smart players like TERA are long but not levered, ready to pull the trigger and profit either way and I'm on the sidelines watching and learning.

The swap fees amount to somewhere around 60% annual interest. The pressure is building and is going to blow one way or the other.

The bear market didn't suddenly end because some exchange decided to invest in ATMs. China isn't suddenly irrelevant. A SUSTAINED reversal isn't something that happens this quickly with no big news. If it happens at all it happens slowly as utility value replaces speculative value.

The question every wise investor asks themselves is "Is time my friend or my enemy?" If time is your enemy, chances are you are on the wrong side of the trade.

I'm inclined to agree with you, but there has been unexplained reversals in the past (or rather, you find out the news after the run-up, which seems more likely these days with institutional money). Nice volume today though, gonna be an exciting week it seems.


and the idea that there has been plenty of good news and progress buried in the fear of China's policy making methods

There has been plenty of good news and progress, but the fundamentals haven't changed overnight by 17%.  Fear of Gox closing dominated until it closed. Fear of China crashing will dominate until it crashes. If it doesn't crash, that fear will weigh on the market until some even bigger fear weighs on the market. Satoshi coins entering market, FBI coins, another exchange getting hacked or closing, regulatory doomsday, another prominent Bicoin personality getting arrested, or maybe someone just happens to find their four year old hard drive with hundreds of thousands of coins on it.  

Good news doesn't mean as much in a bear market. People are looking for an excuse to sell, not to buy. There are people with substantial holdings without enough cash to wait out an extended bear market. They are selling little amounts to get by, extending the bear market. Things have to get worse before they get better. Capital has to move from incompetent managers to competent managers. That's why it's called a "correction".


We are in a bear market because good news are disregard, it will be the other way around when we will resume the bull market

Odds are we will dip again soon, it is way more likely than the scenario where we are already coming back up but at some point we will come back up and it will be crazy

There is a lot of potential for a big negative event such as the mtgox shut down but there is at least as much potential for a big positive event and I feel that we can overcome most big negative events when positive events will have a positive effect long term; the potential is so huge, 450$/BTC feels like a steal to me

$450 should be a steal, but it's not. The investing public is fickle. Nothing succeeds like success and nothing fails like failure. There is no certainty, but investing based on "feelings" usually doesn't pay as well and investing based on asymmetric information (insider trading). If you have a well diversified portfolio of more than $100,000 dollars, now would be a good time to buy a little, but obviously not as good of a time as two days ago @ $340. The risk is that you might have to wait a long time for your bet to pay off.. How long can you afford to wait?

I think Big Money is buying bitcoin right now, but they are buying off exchange and they are buying below market from miners. Those coins are just as likely to get dumped on the exchange for a guaranteed profit as they are to be held if some new disaster strikes. Buying right now may be a good long term investment, but it's an extremely risky short term speculation.  What if the Overstock stockholders pressure the CEO to stop accepting bitcoin or something similar happens?

John Maynard Keynes was a flawed economist in my opinion, but he was one of the very few to actually make a fortune in the markets. He said "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". Many people have been force liquidated already and it's quite possible many more will be in the future. Bitcoin is a fantastic asset, but it is not worth risking insolvency over. We need financially healthy enthusiasts to form the base for the next rally, not bug-eyed gamblers.  

I want bitcoin to go strait up from here, but I've been in this game for over three years and my experience tells my it's unlikely. Possible, but unlikely. TERA is an excellent trader who makes money in bull and bear markets. She understands order flows better than I do. When she says she thinks this probably isn't a final bottom, I believe her.

I used to play poker and I discovered that it's quite possible to make money in a game even if you know you aren't the best player. You just have to know who that player is and you have to stay out of his way. The one thing I know for sure in this market is that I'm not the best player. I may not even be a good player. I've learned a lot, but perhaps the most important thing I've learned is how little I know.

Being ignorant isn't dangerous. What is dangerous is being ignorant and unaware of your ignorance. People are likely going to be insolvent before this is over. Intellectually I know that it's ultimately a good thing and has to happen, but I'm not quite calloused enough to enjoy it. Maybe that's why I gave up poker.

Why don't you place your current predictions into the rpeitila prediction box? in order that we can see how your various probability allocations stack up.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
China trying to go higher.

I was in the bear camp at £300.

I hang my head in shame. It has survived China censorship and centrally controlled free market capitalism.

Never again will I doubt, The Bitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 1638
Merit: 1001
₪``Campaign Manager´´₪
And about bets, you know Pascal's Bet for sure.  What is the probability that handling bitcoin will get one's soul sent to Hell for eternity?  Since that is either true or false, and we have no information, we must assume it is 50%....  Cheesy

I know you are not being serious, and saying we have no information is false, but just for the hell of it:
Even if we are completely ignorant of everything except for the fact that one can handle bitcoin, I think 6.25 % is a better estimation, given that your premise consists of multiple assumptions:
I divided them into 4 [1. there is a hell; 2. one has a soul; 3. given that there is a soul and a hell, souls can go to hell for eternity; 4. given 1.2. &3., handling bitcoin will get one's soul to hell for eternity] but probably by defining the question better, more assumptions can be identified.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Dreamspark: 

How many coins are you thinking is "plenty?"

Anyone with 3,000 plus BTC can live fairly comfortable with passive income from that investment, even at today's seemingly quasi-suppressed BTC prices.    Given the ongoing uncertainties and volatility of BTC, it seems that 3,000 or more BTC would provide a bit of a cushion built in for living passively and taking an approximate 4% annual distribution.  Though if all of my investment was in BTC, and I was expecting to live passively off 3,000 BTC, I would have to diversify out of some of those holdings to feel comfortable... maybe less than 50% in BTC.

If an investor has fewer than the equivalent of 3,000 BTC contributing to his passive income, then s/he may still need to continue to work to build that nest egg.  And, if that person has even higher financial aspirations then that's another story.

What made you arrive at 3k BTC (at today's exchange rate $1.38M, or 1M Euro) as the cut-off point for living off passive income?


That 3k BTC number was kind of floating in my head based on one of my recent posts in another thread.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6207547


I do NOT really mean that number as a cut-off point b/c I certainly realize that there are a lot of different people with a variety of expectations pertaining to how much passive income they would need to live comfortably... or even within their previous income / lifestyle range (more or less). 

I understand that some people can feel that they are living fairly comfortable off of $10K per year, and others would feel impoverished if they were living off of $100K per year.

The 3k BTC number was kind of within my current considerations of an aspiration at least in today's circumstances and based on some of my own personal considerations.


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