Topic: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner (Read 153451 times)

The numbers show us the millionaires who invest a lot in Bitcoin because they know Bitcoin is the fastest way to get rich. Most people become millionaires by joining Bitcoin. They account for up to 40% of Bitcoin, which is not small. And the Bitcoins they own have thousands of Bitcoins per person. Far beyond our imagination

Seeking ahead to the March stats. Will they be out quickly?

For one side would be good to see those coins be mooved or used, who know those money can be used a part for personal purpose as could feed and help a lot the childs wich are diying. But would be scared to see Nakamoto dumping lets say 5000- 10000 btc daily making a huge sell pressure into the bitcoin value, atleast would mean the creator his alive and in possesion of those coins, that sounds has been lost.

How about you cease from now on posting these things to this thread. You have threads of your personal to do it, and the intrigued ones (have to) be intelligent enough to uncover them, thank you for knowing!

@rpietila,Thanks for getting a man about it and not deleting my put up.Stage taken, I ought to provide evidence and not just view.Many thanks for all your effort in collecting all this info.

Or an epic dump of BTC. BOOM

it would be amusing to watch those coins move to a new wallet...  Followed by an epic dump of BCH 

This article is also well worth a read: https://bitslog.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/

It makes the case (which many others had assumed but that had not been proven) that Satoshi mined around 1 million BTC.

Like others, I had assumed that Satoshi may well have discarded some or all of the keys to these wallets. However, this post makes that seem unlikely:


The question of whether he owns those coins or not therefore comes down to whether he is still alive.

ARK Invest & Coinbase estimate “roughly seven million people around
the world hold a material amount of bitcoin” & “Coinbase stores nearly half a billion dollars of bitcoin–more than any other provider in the world”.
The Android “Bitcoin Wallet” app has been installed “1–5 million times”, Coinbase’s Android app has been installed “500k — 1 million times”, and Mycelium’s Android app & Blockchain.info’s Android app have each been installed “100k — 500k times”.
Many bitcoin are stuck in addresses with lost private keys — another extremely area of analysis full of murkiness & unknowns. A great article written over 2 years ago by John W. Ratcliff proposed as high as 30% of then existing bitcoin were “zombies”, & the still unknown Satoshi

I would be interested in your comments about this new model of the distribution of Bitcoin wealth.

Results:

http://www.blocklink.info/distributions.html

Model:

https://medium.com/@BambouClub/are-you-in-the-bitcoin-1-a-new-model-of-the-distribution-of-bitcoin-wealth-6adb0d4a6a95

It's assumptions but what better do you have?

A more accurate method would be to go to big bitcoin services and parse through all users and see how much they have in account by the input addresses and ingoing transactions.

Fore example satoshidice is probably the biggest casino where most bitcoin went through at some point.

Grab their deposit addresses, and check every transaction input address that was associated with it, it should give you some info.

In an attempt to not sound haughty, your methodology relies on a large number of unproven and unprovable assumptions, whereas mine relies on a framework of known and undisputable constraints, which bound an event space of interrelated parameters with a tight possible range of values.

Ping me if you make a thread for your idea

Actually let's just think of another logic.

It's pretty impossible to calculate the % of ownership without identifying most addresses, instead let's take a different approach.


Let's analyze it from the transaction side. The methodology would be the following

1)Pick a period, let's say the past 2 years

2)Get all transactions from there and put it in a database including the (amount moved - fee), the list of input and output addresses

3) Filter out transactions where 1 input address sends coins to 1 output address
Then consider the input address different owner from the output (because this was most likely someone sending money to somebody else)

4) Filter out transactions that had multiple inputs and 1 output.
Then consider all the input addresses as 1 owner, and the output as separate owner (because most likely this was a person spending from his wallet)

5) Filter out transactions with multiple inputs and multiple outputs
Then consider all addresses involved in it as separate owners (because most likely this was a joint transaction)

6) Filter out transactions that had 1 input and multiple outputs
Then consider all addresses as separate owners (this was most likely a mass payment system)

7) Compare the info you have with the addresses that havent participated in transactions in the past 2 years, and see if you can filter out some more

Group all suspected owners, and compare them with eachother based on each testing, and filter out multiple addresses of the same owner.

9) You should have a pretty good estimation now about probable owners in the past 2 year and estimate the bitcoin flow

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This methodology is not 100% accurate, but it should give you some estimations about bitcoin ownership distribution, and it can be tied to a timeframe.

Sure this methodology can be polished, but as a rough estimation it would work like this.

It needs good programming skills and a fast PC though to run through all data from the blockchain !

Can you give me your idea of the constraints?
- # of bitcoins
- marketcap
- size of largest holding
- presence of oversized secret and manipulative holdings (eg banking cartel 2 million coins)
- smallest attributable holding
- total number of owners/holders above the threshold
- if only cold holdings count or exchanges as well
- how is shorting attributed

Since it is some time since the last one, I am probably at a disadvantage to answer these. The model is somewhat simple fit when these are discussed first.

So far, the criticism towards the methodology has been incredibly low standard. I have yet to find even one critic who understands what I have done (which should not be too difficult, after all it is written as clearly as I can manage, in English, in this thread!  )

This is a 100% mathematic, parametrized, generic, model for modelling naturally occurring distributions. It can be wrong if the phenomenon to be modelled is not a good fit for the model (see thread that it is), or it can be off if the parameters selected are off (they cannot be too much off because of the interrelations between them, the possible range of parameters is very very small actually, even if we could not have any knowledge of the total number of owners (the only real unknown in the whole model since both the marketcap and the number of coins are knowns).

So I am not too scared of the sophisticated audience shooting holes in the model, since the assumptions they must subscribe to before attempting to criticise my model are untenable. If they have a better idea of the values of the individual parameters, they may be right as well as I, since the truth about those values remains unprovable forever, and the system is dynamic as well.

Rpietila please update your estimations in the OP to reflect 2016 data.

I am ultra curious how the current distribution looks like. You would do a great service to the bitcoin community by continuing this research.

I`m already working on a spinoff from this, but you are a bigger expert on the issue so I would like your research better.

Other people may be able to do it; however, you have the skills to be able to give us an update with both persuasive abilities and to clearly conform with your earlier methodology, and even maybe to improve upon it and show various weaknesses that you have since considered.


On the other hand, I understand why you may not want to contribute to such - because likely you are both too much conflicted with your investment in Monero (accordingly your interests have shifted to pumping that and attempting to get rich on some new coins that have pumping potential), and there may likely be several additional weaknesses in your methodology and flaws that may come to light, based on a true attempt to update with new information and a larger (and probably more sophisticated audience).

In essence, it is too bad that your interests have shifted because you certainly had been capable (when you were more focused on bitcoin) to be able to provide insight on this topic to a lot of us readers, including myself.

I`m too lazy, i hope somebody else does a list for 2016


Wtf are you talking about? Nobody is distributing coins here, we just analyze how they are distributed.

I don't think anyone has an authority to distribute coins belonging to someone, Even if it's an inactive address it still has an owner and therefore should not be looked at in this way.. That's one of the criteria of BTC i.e no central authority and distributing the coins serves as a central authority IMO.

The methodology is created in this thread. There is nothing there where "I" am needed. No proprietary parts involved. Just do it yourself!