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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28239. (Read 26709389 times)

hero member
Activity: 966
Merit: 526
🐺Dogs for President🐺
Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

Based on the fact he's a permanent uber-bull troll!

Yeah.. get your unsubstantiated digs in - and certainly, you are out of context, here, which seems to be your M.O. to spout out a bunch of shit, out of context.

Don't care to carry on a conversation with a delusional extremist.  I can't think of an opposing bear that would balance your strange and frankly outlandish claims.  The nearest reverse mirror image might be Igorr.  But igorr backs his claims up with some TA that does justify his point of view.   You just talk rubbish, over, and over again, a constant stream of verbal diarrhea.  The reason? I can only hazard a guess.  
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

I already addressed this value basis question in another post. 

But if you think the current value is $9.99-ish, then you seem to really be living in a fantasy land world, and possibly, you do NOT understand various bitcoin fundamentals.

I do NOT claim to be nearly an expert on everything about bitcoin, but there is a lot of upward potential that may or may not be realized.. depending upon how world events play out. 

I am betting on BTC prices going up, though, and I believe the odds are pretty good... that we are going to be seeing upward price momentum rather than downward momentum - even though it is possible that we will continue to see downward price momentum for a couple of more months...

Does your valuation take into account the fact that Bitcoin mining as we know it will collapse very soon?
sr. member
Activity: 274
Merit: 250
OK, could someone from China now say something about the possiblities he has.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
How awesome it would be if this was a successful retest of $340. 

I thought that you said that you were back to being all in BTC?  Did you get into Fiat again at some time?

I specifically said I was NOT all in, just cautiously optimistic. There was a four hour cross on the MACD  that had the potential of causing a pop, and I wanted to be in a position to SELL that spike. The Next rally is extremely unlikely to start immediately after the lowest point is hit. There will be months of consolidation.

Surely, it is possible that I missed some of your posts, so thanks for the clarification.
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

Based on the fact he's a permanent uber-bull troll!

Yeah.. get your unsubstantiated digs in - and certainly, you are out of context, here, which seems to be your M.O. to spout out a bunch of shit, out of context.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 3056
Welt Am Draht
Would someone please explain to me why we see a ginificant price difference between different exchanges? E.g. It's 412 vs 398 on Bitstamp vs BTC-e?

Could one send fiat to BTC-e, buy BTC, send it to Bistamp, sell, and withdraw ad infinitum?

It varies by the second but BTC-e is often a little bit cheaper. I would guess that it's because you have to dick around with third party payment processors to get money on there as opposed to a single transfer from your own bank.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
Would someone please explain to me why we see a sinificant price difference between different exchanges? E.g. It's 412 vs 398 on Bitstamp vs BTC-e?

Could one send fiat to BTC-e, buy BTC, send it to Bistamp, sell, and withdraw ad infinitum?
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

I already addressed this value basis question in another post. 

But if you think the current value is $9.99-ish, then you seem to really be living in a fantasy land world, and possibly, you do NOT understand various bitcoin fundamentals.

I do NOT claim to be nearly an expert on everything about bitcoin, but there is a lot of upward potential that may or may not be realized.. depending upon how world events play out. 

I am betting on BTC prices going up, though, and I believe the odds are pretty good... that we are going to be seeing upward price momentum rather than downward momentum - even though it is possible that we will continue to see downward price momentum for a couple of more months...
hero member
Activity: 966
Merit: 526
🐺Dogs for President🐺
Very predictable action, as i've said, will be about 2500-2550 on huobi.

But since now 4h and 6h macD's are going down, i have no clue how much further it will go, but i will pass on selling now, taking my small profits and sitting in coins this night

well on Huobi the 30min 1h, 2h, 4h, 6h, 1d, 3d, 1w.  they are all red... only 12h is green. 

If you are sleeping on bitcoin, set your price alarm.  
hero member
Activity: 667
Merit: 500

I don't know where you get your economics from, but what you're arguing amounts to saying that no one ever will just take a loss on anything.

If that's what you are reading then I have expressed myself poorly.
No rational actor with a classical monetary utility function will act to foreseeably incur catastrophic long term losses is about as close as I would come to that.

A miner would only rationally hold out for >$700 if he didn't anticipate needing liquidity prior to the expectation of that price arising. The marginal utility of dollars necessarily increases relative to Bitcoin if the miner has a pressing need for dollars.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
Very predictable action, as i've said, will be about 2500-2550 on huobi.

But since now 4h and 6h macD's are going down, i have no clue how much further it will go, but i will pass on selling now, taking my small profits and sitting in coins this night
legendary
Activity: 3948
Merit: 11416
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Based on the totality of the circumstances... included but not limited to payment system, storage of value, public ledger and decentralized innovative protocol that is expanding its reach globally.. and a market cap of only about 5 billion - even though much lesser important innovations have much larger market caps...
legendary
Activity: 1133
Merit: 1163
Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos
I think with NYFDS issuing the final regulatory guidelines for exchanges in New York by the end of Q2, I believe the start of Q3 will be a new all time high.

This gloom and doom will blow away then, or as soon as NYFDS releases the guidelines. Thats when Circle, SecondMarket, Coinsetter, Buttercoin will probably launch.

+1 that I agree with. In our hearts we are all permabulls (and maybe that is the problem).

That is not a problem. If cryptocurrency isn't the future, humanity really screwed up. We've moved out of the stone age economically.

Mind you, humanity is continuing to make our planet uninhabitable to humans so.....

TO DA MOON!

I thought this was a very cool quote from here http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/22wcx6/what_happens_if_the_best_case_scenarios_actually/cgr72rm

I wonder how the situation would look in an alternative universe where the humans invented computers, Internet and cryptography in the early 19th century and switched from gold to Bitcoin, skipping fiat currencies entirely.

Imagine someone from this universe suggesting a fiat currency:

"Let's call this system Dollarcoin. It is a system like Bitcoin, but there will be only one miner, the government. And there will be no limits on block rewards, so the government will be able to mine as many dollarcoins as it wants to. And you will not be able to transact large amounts directly but will need to register a "wallet" with large government-licensed corporations - we will call them banks. And banks and the government will be able to freeze your wallet or confiscate it at any time.

The banks will run their own blockchains too, however all those altcoins will be also called dollarcoins. Each bank will be able to mine 10 "bank dollarcoins" for each "government dollarcoin" they hold. And the bank will freely exchange between government coins and its own coins until it doesn't have any real dollarcoins left and its blockchain fails. Nothing to worry though - in this case the government will simply mine enough dollarcoins to reimburse the bank's customers.

And while we are at it, let's invent our own system for making purchases over the Internet with dollarcoins. It will be called Credit Card. This will be a plastic card with your dollarcoin private key engraved on it in plaintext. When you make a purchase online, you will simply send your private key to the merchant who are responsible for charging the exact amount you agreed to. After that, the merchant will store your private key in its database so you won't have to type it again next time! (Brilliant idea, right?)

Of course, there will be huge amount of losses due to fraud, but we will distribute those losses equally among all users of the system and they probably won't notice. We can just as many coins as we want, remember?"

This is just excellent. +graham's number

+1

That was brilliant!
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas

I don't know where you get your economics from, but what you're arguing amounts to saying that no one ever will just take a loss on anything.

If that's what you are reading then I have expressed myself poorly.
No rational actor with a classical monetary utility function will act to foreseeably incur catastrophic long term losses is about as close as I would come to that.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
$750 valuation based on what?

Numerous fundamental factors and several technicals converge in this area presently.  You need to do some catchup reading.  The  bear case always boils down to fud - which is a legitimate and important factor.  The bull case always boils down to facts and logic - sometimes erroneous but on the whole fairly sound ( although exhaustive scenario analysis is of course infeasible or even impossible).  It is just possible that facts and logic will dominate in the long run. Not certain, but the upside is huge if they do.
hero member
Activity: 667
Merit: 500
the last time I checked,the amortized mining cost of 1 bit coin was 700 dollars using the latest cheapest equipment.   the overwhelming bulk of all coin mining is being done with the latest cheapest equipment, as can be easily inferred from the hash rate graph.

these coins will not be sold for less than $700 I can assure you

That's not really how it works at all. That's basically the sunk cost fallacy and the fallacious labor theory of value merged into one conclusion.

Production costs do not directly cause price. Market price does naturally converge on cost plus a standard economic rate of return given stable demand due to changes in the supply function. But that is not a direct causal relationship to price.

A miner would only rationally hold out for >$700 if he didn't anticipate needing liquidity prior to the expectation of that price arising. The marginal utility of dollars necessarily increases relative to Bitcoin if the miner has a pressing need for dollars.

That was one of the most ludicrous strings of verbiage I have seen since the Sokal/Socialtext affair.  Simple arithmetic refutes you outright.  If I seek anything other than bankruptcy I simply can not sell coins mined today with the most cost-effective hashing hardware in the known universe for less than 700.  If I am not holding my only rational choice is to sell the hardware to someone who will.

I don't know where you get your economics from, but what you're arguing amounts to saying that no one ever will just take a loss on anything.

Your cute little internet arguments that you have names for have nothing to do with actual economics btw.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
How awesome it would be if this was a successful retest of $340. 

I thought that you said that you were back to being all in BTC?  Did you get into Fiat again at some time?

I specifically said I was NOT all in, just cautiously optimistic. There was a four hour cross on the MACD  that had the potential of causing a pop, and I wanted to be in a position to SELL that spike. The Next rally is extremely unlikely to start immediately after the lowest point is hit. There will be months of consolidation.
hero member
Activity: 966
Merit: 526
🐺Dogs for President🐺
Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

Based on the fact he's a permanent uber-bull troll!
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1045
I think with NYFDS issuing the final regulatory guidelines for exchanges in New York by the end of Q2, I believe the start of Q3 will be a new all time high.

This gloom and doom will blow away then, or as soon as NYFDS releases the guidelines. Thats when Circle, SecondMarket, Coinsetter, Buttercoin will probably launch.

+1 that I agree with. In our hearts we are all permabulls (and maybe that is the problem).

That is not a problem. If cryptocurrency isn't the future, humanity really screwed up. We've moved out of the stone age economically.

Mind you, humanity is continuing to make our planet uninhabitable to humans so.....

TO DA MOON!

I thought this was a very cool quote from here http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/22wcx6/what_happens_if_the_best_case_scenarios_actually/cgr72rm

I wonder how the situation would look in an alternative universe where the humans invented computers, Internet and cryptography in the early 19th century and switched from gold to Bitcoin, skipping fiat currencies entirely.

Imagine someone from this universe suggesting a fiat currency:

"Let's call this system Dollarcoin. It is a system like Bitcoin, but there will be only one miner, the government. And there will be no limits on block rewards, so the government will be able to mine as many dollarcoins as it wants to. And you will not be able to transact large amounts directly but will need to register a "wallet" with large government-licensed corporations - we will call them banks. And banks and the government will be able to freeze your wallet or confiscate it at any time.

The banks will run their own blockchains too, however all those altcoins will be also called dollarcoins. Each bank will be able to mine 10 "bank dollarcoins" for each "government dollarcoin" they hold. And the bank will freely exchange between government coins and its own coins until it doesn't have any real dollarcoins left and its blockchain fails. Nothing to worry though - in this case the government will simply mine enough dollarcoins to reimburse the bank's customers.

And while we are at it, let's invent our own system for making purchases over the Internet with dollarcoins. It will be called Credit Card. This will be a plastic card with your dollarcoin private key engraved on it in plaintext. When you make a purchase online, you will simply send your private key to the merchant who are responsible for charging the exact amount you agreed to. After that, the merchant will store your private key in its database so you won't have to type it again next time! (Brilliant idea, right?)

Of course, there will be huge amount of losses due to fraud, but we will distribute those losses equally among all users of the system and they probably won't notice. We can just as many coins as we want, remember?"

This is just excellent. +graham's number
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99
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