Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28249. (Read 26708735 times)
April 12, 2014, 05:50:29 PM
Next crash will be triggered by news of the arrests of chinese exchange CEOs for repeatedly evading regulations.
April 12, 2014, 05:45:36 PM
Huobi and stamp are coverging. But china wakes up soon and may assume leadership again.
April 12, 2014, 05:45:09 PM
I'm seeing some significant changes in the order books. Looking very bullish. Still wary of crazy dumps out of the blue. Damn China.
April 12, 2014, 05:45:01 PM
"Bitfinex Sentiment Index
Our Bitfinex Sentiment Index allows you to see what the market of BTCUSD currently feels like, bullish or bearish. It is based on market participants sentiment about BTCUSD price.
BSI as of April 13, 2014 - 12:40:00 AM CEST:
1:1 - Bearish "
haven´t seen that turned to bearish ever before. I´m buyin
Our Bitfinex Sentiment Index allows you to see what the market of BTCUSD currently feels like, bullish or bearish. It is based on market participants sentiment about BTCUSD price.
BSI as of April 13, 2014 - 12:40:00 AM CEST:
1:1 - Bearish "
haven´t seen that turned to bearish ever before. I´m buyin
You should give the link
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats
April 12, 2014, 05:40:54 PM
"Bitfinex Sentiment Index
Our Bitfinex Sentiment Index allows you to see what the market of BTCUSD currently feels like, bullish or bearish. It is based on market participants sentiment about BTCUSD price.
BSI as of April 13, 2014 - 12:40:00 AM CEST:
1:1 - Bearish "
haven´t seen that turned to bearish ever before. I´m buyin
Our Bitfinex Sentiment Index allows you to see what the market of BTCUSD currently feels like, bullish or bearish. It is based on market participants sentiment about BTCUSD price.
BSI as of April 13, 2014 - 12:40:00 AM CEST:
1:1 - Bearish "
haven´t seen that turned to bearish ever before. I´m buyin
April 12, 2014, 05:36:21 PM
Im more optimistic but Im waiting until the exchanges actually lose their bank accounts and the 15th-18th passes nothings really changed in the last few days other than breaking the previous lows. This could easily be retested on any China FUD
China is accumulating, while bitstamp is still selling.The China news is already baked in to the price so unless they start executing people for having bitcoins, the only FUD you are going to see is rehashing old news.
I agree it is baked into the price to some degree but that doesn't mean that the exchanges actually having no way of being deposited to will have no effect. It will. Furthermore since when did it matter if news was old or rehashed, its pretty much whats been happening since december
April 12, 2014, 05:34:36 PM
Back down to super low volume. Are we thinking consolidation and up or are we just waiting for the next bit of news.
450 used to be the norm. Before that it was 620, and before that it was 800.
If 425 becomes the new normal flat line on low volume, which is lower than the previous one, it just means that at last dip, once more and again, more fiat got out than new fiat came in.
Apathy sucks. Let's hope that volume picks up on Monday.
Also every day there are 3,600 new freshly mined bitcoins, and part of them are sold to pay electricity bills, try to recover money invested on the miner, investing on more mining power or present/future panickers.
That means it is needed up to $1.5 million daily deposits to maintain the price stable. (Actually less because some will hold no matter what, so you can guess something like 25%-50% of $1.5 million)
the last time I checked,the amortized mining cost of 1 bit coin was 700 dollars using the latest cheapest equipment. the overwhelming bulk of all coin mining is being done with the latest cheapest equipment, as can be easily inferred from the hash rate graph.
these coins will not be sold for less than $700 I can assure you
April 12, 2014, 05:34:23 PM
[ This is a test post to understand how "delete" works, for a discussion on the "meta" thread. Sorry for the noise, please ignore ]
where is the "meta" thread??
Here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=24.0
EDIT: actually I shoudl have written "sub-forum" not "thread".
April 12, 2014, 05:32:02 PM
Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday April 13
Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-04-13, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2609 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 417 USD.
Plot legend
The data point of Apr/12 UTC was a good one (S = 0.0029, W = 0.846), and right on top (ahem!) of the previous trend. Therefore it seems reasonable to assume that trend will hold for one more day. Weighted least squares fitting to the points of Apr/07, 08, 09, 11, and 12 (assuming that Apr/10 was an outlier) give A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/07, A = 2796.66, B = -31.24.
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.25 CNY/USD. It was 6.24, 6.32, 6.16 at the last three Slumber Times.
Checking the previous prediction
Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-04-11, 22:50 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-04-12, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)
Ahem!
Huobi's predicted price: 2634 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2643 CNY
Error: 9 CNY (~1.44 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 422 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 423 USD
Error: 1 USD
NOTE: "There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale
returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact." -- Mark Twain
Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-04-13, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2609 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 417 USD.
Plot legend
The data point of Apr/12 UTC was a good one (S = 0.0029, W = 0.846), and right on top (ahem!) of the previous trend. Therefore it seems reasonable to assume that trend will hold for one more day. Weighted least squares fitting to the points of Apr/07, 08, 09, 11, and 12 (assuming that Apr/10 was an outlier) give A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/07, A = 2796.66, B = -31.24.
The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.25 CNY/USD. It was 6.24, 6.32, 6.16 at the last three Slumber Times.
Checking the previous prediction
Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-04-11, 22:50 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-04-12, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)
Ahem!
Huobi's predicted price: 2634 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2643 CNY
Error: 9 CNY (~1.44 USD)
Bitstamp's predicted price: 422 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 423 USD
Error: 1 USD
NOTE: "There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale
returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact." -- Mark Twain
April 12, 2014, 05:26:00 PM
Im more optimistic but Im waiting until the exchanges actually lose their bank accounts and the 15th-18th passes nothings really changed in the last few days other than breaking the previous lows. This could easily be retested on any China FUD
I agree a retest of the lows is very possible, but we are approaching a cross on the 4HR moving average chart, and I didn't want to miss the possibility of a pop.
April 12, 2014, 05:24:00 PM
I have been a miner since Nov 2011, and I work in a very geek orientated environment, there are over 100 working in my team. They are all tech geeks and out of these people only maybe 3 or 4 have mined bitcoin.
I dont believe you about having 100 miners on your team
Luckily he did not claim so
Maybe I have to improve my reading skills...
... ... I am still NOT planning to change my post b/c part of my point(s) remains that he is full of it, for a variety of other reasons... including the fact that even he is claiming to be a bitter miner since 2011... may be true, but seems to be like he got screwed somehow or made some serious mistakes and is NOT in touch with whatever caused him to get involved in the mining of BTC. Maybe he overextended himself or saw that traders were doing better than miners b/c if a miner had saved some of his coins since 2011, he could have a pretty decent little stash... but if he over invested in mining equipment, then maybe he does NOT have any coins... . He may want to explain the cause(s) for his bitterness that has caused him to not only be bearish but to make a variety of outlandish claims regarding the direction of bitcoin... to describe bitcoin in mostly negative terms.. "he overextended himself" as a miner that's not really possible, The only time electricity was more expensive than income was July / August 2013, when LTC was $2. We are approaching that level again BTW for scrypt coins and soon first gen asics will reach that level. Avalon ascis (80GH) are there now, power hungry 90nm design (the electric costs more than the BTC received.)
Again you need to read. what I wrote, you have selective vision. I wrote.. "Bitcoin is great invention, it has great support ".
I said I don't see where the next big investment will come from straight away. I said it will take time. That's why I and many others remain bearish (for now).
I wrote a large post about my bitcoin history, but deleted it, because actually I don't care if you believe it or not. I could provide proof, but it won't change anything, your response will still be the same. (i'm a bitter bear, etc. etc. ) but as I was the person that made the DPZ coin I don't feel like I have to justify my involvement in the crypto community.
Edit: spelling
April 12, 2014, 05:23:08 PM
Im more optimistic but Im waiting until the exchanges actually lose their bank accounts and the 15th-18th passes nothings really changed in the last few days other than breaking the previous lows. This could easily be retested on any China FUD
China is accumulating, while bitstamp is still selling.The China news is already baked in to the price so unless they start executing people for having bitcoins, the only FUD you are going to see is rehashing old news.
April 12, 2014, 05:16:47 PM
Im more optimistic but Im waiting until the exchanges actually lose their bank accounts and the 15th-18th passes nothings really changed in the last few days other than breaking the previous lows. This could easily be retested on any China FUD
April 12, 2014, 05:13:56 PM
where is the "meta" thread??
April 12, 2014, 05:08:53 PM
Is it just me or has everything just gone VERY quiet on all exchanges?!
Expect action in a few days
(HINT: it's upwards
)Yes I also expect some action over the coming days :-) But I found the lack of action a bit eerie. I was looking around and I could not spot a single transaction taking place (verifying it with volume). Even Houbi where the bots normally keep themselves busy was totally quiet for 10 minutes. I haven't seen that before. Could it be that there was something wrong on BitcoinWisdom?
Edit: Spelling
April 12, 2014, 05:05:36 PM
Looks very promising I am proud of bitcoin that it is keeping strong position.
Good.
Waiting for next price changes.
Good.
Waiting for next price changes.
April 12, 2014, 05:03:28 PM
Also in the April 2014 crash bitcoin lost 75% without any fundamental reason for the crash. We're not at 75% yet and we have been plastered with negative reports on mainstream media. The only bitcoin stories I have seen recently on mainstream TV in the UK have been about gox and the crash. That sticks in peoples minds.
2013?
The fundamental reason was that it was simply too high.
Well, mt.gox helped crash it by lagging out
Maybe it would go higher if it wasn't for that, maybe not... Maybe go fuck yourself
Unreasonably insulting. He made a reasonable comment and you are simply not worthy of cleaning this guy's shoes.
I hope you take your own advice.
April 12, 2014, 05:03:25 PM
Most obvious prediction is down to 2500 on huobi
Bears are washed out, the current selling is mainly profit taking.
We aren't going below 400 unless fresh Fud news from china comes in.
The bulls seem more washed out to me, I don't see many people buying at the moment.
some people are worried of being a 450 bag holder.
I am more worried about the bag being on the train, while I am standing at the railway station platform trying to figure out how to get to the next train station so I can get on the train.
And there are plenty of people like you that feel the same.
I think when we finally hit the bottom we will level out for a while. I don't see a big bounce, followed by choo choo. So for me at least there is a lot less risk in dollars or yuan.
All the gox, China, Australia news, does not go away overnight, and it's new investors that are needed. More bad news could be just around the corner. Many personal investors with serious cash are older, and don't understand bitcoin, and are naturally more conservative. Corporations, wouldn't touch bitcoin with a shitty stick right now, as it looks risky on price and it looks even riskier on regulation. Lets face it, there is no good news for new investment.
LOL. Can I quote you on that? What's App sold for $19 Billion dollars. You don't think there aren't one or two VCs considering the possibility of cornering the market for the next rally? NONE?? 10% of CoinBase and Blockain wallets holders could support this price level for less than $10 a day. By themselves. I have thousands of dollars waiting for bear suckers to dump so that I can take your coins. I'm pretty sure we can come up with money to buy longer than you can come up with coins to sell. The Fed is quantitatively easing ~ $50 Billion/month.
Maybe I'm wrong. We'll see.
Sounds to me you are gradually coming out of bear-mode, BJA.
If so - welcome back.
We have seen the lows, and it is a pitifully small drop from where we are to what are VERY cheap coins. Too cheap.
Yes - buy like a mofo if it dips again, it may be the last chance... I increased my (not massive) holdings by 25% on Thursday in that dip and I am quietly rather pleased with myself.
There is not much that can take us down from here, and the upside has a hell of a lot more room in it.
If you feel different - you are right to: If it was going to crash, the bears had their chance to drive it to 266 and maybe lower 48 hours ago. There is not much fiat coming in, so we should be seeing carnage if Thursday was not the bottom.
But it didn't happen. And it won't. China has been priced in for weeks, Gox is gone. All the other (ignored) news is actually very positive - more so than ever. But most importantly the market thinks that 339 is too cheap.
It is being 'remembered' that coins are scarce and they are very cheap, in my humble opinion. Sub 400 is a steal compared to what we we will see this summer.
Even under 450 is a safe buy compared to what is to come.
Like KFR said - people treat a day like it's a month on here, it's hilarious. Sentiment sea changes have already come, don't short - BUY.
Yeah, I snuck back in at $417 when nobody was looking.
April 12, 2014, 05:00:25 PM
he he he.. i sense some built up tension in the air.. two quasi-bulls going at it about trivial matters.. we must be nearing a bottom..
Nah, I was gonna say 'maybe, maybe not' and thought I might aswell throw in this line
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJj3mERrEgA
April 12, 2014, 05:00:24 PM
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