Explanation
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28252. (Read 26708262 times)
April 12, 2014, 11:00:24 AM
April 12, 2014, 10:52:47 AM
If it's not obvious which direction to trade, don't trade. These consolidations are here to give you a break.
That's the problem. It's not obvious, but are you going to sleep in fiat or BTC? I think it's going down, but I don't want to miss the opportunity to lock in my BTC profits. I have enough cash to buy lower if and probably when that happens. AT LEAST one more test of support is very likely, IMHO. It may even go down to $266 support or lower. This is Bitcoin.
You're very good at what you do, Tera, but none of us is omniscient. I can't follow your advice on when to sell if I don't have any to trade.
TERA is trader, and when trader says to not trade that means stay in fiat in bearish markets, btc in bullish markets.
I remember telling a friend of mine in 2011 when BTC was $3: "" I don't know if it'll go up or down, but I guarantee you'll only be 1/3 the idiot I was when I bought @ $9.
I guess I'm resigned to loose some money. More tuition. Every surprise can't be to the down side.
April 12, 2014, 10:52:18 AM
Shit, my shitty bot bought
Shit, my shitty bot bought
Shit, my shitty bot bought
Shit, my shitty bot bought
Shit, my shitty bot bought
Shit, my shitty bot bought
Shit, my shitty bot bought
I'm sorry but this got looped in my head like a B52's song
yuck
April 12, 2014, 10:47:08 AM
How high will 11000 liquidated shorter BTC send us with such a small orderbook?
April 12, 2014, 10:43:53 AM
Chinese/Russian coordinated megapump in progress. 120$ candles available soon!
April 12, 2014, 10:43:21 AM
Looks like head&shoulders failing to materialize @huobi, buy buy buy
Huobi no longer the catalyst causing the dumps. The last dump was started on btc-e. only the recovery was initiated on huobi.
April 12, 2014, 10:41:48 AM
Fucking bears.
It went down to $336,-
Still they be: UGH, I WANT IT TO GO LOWER. I GOT SO MUCH MONEY TO SPEND ON BITCOINS, LIKE OMG. Shut the fuck up already. It's been at $336,-. You missed it. Bad luck. Get your BEAR balls together(if you even have some balls) and get the fuck in.
Honestly, all this bullshit talk about wanting to have cheap coins. All a sudden it's at $336 and they still DONT fucking buy coins. Your fake, seriously.. fake.
It went down to $336,-
Still they be: UGH, I WANT IT TO GO LOWER. I GOT SO MUCH MONEY TO SPEND ON BITCOINS, LIKE OMG. Shut the fuck up already. It's been at $336,-. You missed it. Bad luck. Get your BEAR balls together(if you even have some balls) and get the fuck in.
Honestly, all this bullshit talk about wanting to have cheap coins. All a sudden it's at $336 and they still DONT fucking buy coins. Your fake, seriously.. fake.
April 12, 2014, 10:35:10 AM
If it's not obvious which direction to trade, don't trade. These consolidations are here to give you a break.
That's the problem. It's not obvious, but are you going to sleep in fiat or BTC? I think it's going down, but I don't want to miss the opportunity to lock in my BTC profits. I have enough cash to buy lower if and probably when that happens. AT LEAST one more test of support is very likely, IMHO. It may even go down to $266 support or lower. This is Bitcoin.
You're very good at what you do, Tera, but none of us is omniscient. I can't follow your advice on when to sell if I don't have any to trade.
TERA is trader, and when trader says to not trade that means stay in fiat in bearish markets, btc in bullish markets.
April 12, 2014, 10:23:49 AM
I don't know if anyone has noticed but the long term charts do not look good...even in log scale.
Everybody is entitled to an opinion. Mine is that long-term charts have never looked this good if you are looking for a low-risk entry point. November-2011 comes close.
April 12, 2014, 10:22:39 AM
my personal drama soup on my beloved mined coins was related to gov wellfare, taxes, etc ... 
April 12, 2014, 10:19:22 AM
I don't know if anyone has noticed but the long term charts do not look good...even in log scale.
All this volatility all the way down since Nov-Dec may be great for day traders that know how to spin this however most of us mortals don't have those kinds of skills.
I am going to sit tight on my fiat until the long term charts show a clear uptick.
Just my 2 cents.
All this volatility all the way down since Nov-Dec may be great for day traders that know how to spin this however most of us mortals don't have those kinds of skills.
I am going to sit tight on my fiat until the long term charts show a clear uptick.
Just my 2 cents.
April 12, 2014, 10:13:30 AM
I am guessing that chinese exchangers hold between 1/10 and 1/5 of the coins that are on bitstamp and btc-e.
There is no way they could have acquired the amount they claim out of the blue.
Time will tell , but I doubt the numbers are that wrong.
You may not know it, but bitcoins can be easily moved between markets, even across currency exchange barriers. There is no way they could have acquired the amount they claim out of the blue.
Time will tell , but I doubt the numbers are that wrong.
Arbitragers move coins to China whenever the price there is higher than in the West. The price shoot by a factor of 10 in October/November when the Chinese market exploded, all because of demand in China They must have slurped most of the coins available in the Western markets at the time.
So I would guess the opposite: last January, the coins available in the Western exchanges (not counting the large hoards of long-term investors, nor the fictitious GOXCoins) were only 1/5 to 1/10 of those that were available in the Chinese exchanges. (That is just a guess, based on nothing more than this simplistic price argument.) But that number must have been decreasing together with the price.
EDIT: fixed(?) wrong attribution of quote.
I have been told by guys in the moving coins off market industry that before the last bubble that liquidity dried up and lots of new Chinese were buying for the first time and sending coins to china to for friends to sell.
I import a lot from China and experimented with paying suppliers by selling on exchange over there, my fiat to fiat conversion via Bitcoin gave me a 10-15% conversion advantage.
Unfortunately short lived fiat out became problematic, even getting my Bitcoin back was a change. As payment reconciliation with BTCchina was a mess.
April 12, 2014, 10:09:01 AM
If it's not obvious which direction to trade, don't trade. These consolidations are here to give you a break.
That's the problem. It's not obvious, but are you going to sleep in fiat or BTC? I think it's going down, but I don't want to miss the opportunity to lock in my BTC profits. I have enough cash to buy lower if and probably when that happens. AT LEAST one more test of support is very likely, IMHO. It may even go down to $266 support or lower. This is Bitcoin.
You're very good at what you do, Tera, but none of us is omniscient. I can't follow your advice on when to sell if I don't have any to trade.
April 12, 2014, 10:00:25 AM
April 12, 2014, 09:54:45 AM
Looks like head&shoulders failing to materialize @huobi, buy buy buy
April 12, 2014, 09:50:04 AM
Indeed, some exchanges truncate their order book (BTC-E for example).
But the bid/ask sums may not be that meaningless, their scope is just limited to the provided range of orders.
Eventually, accuracy of this metric depends on the distribution of orders in the book.
Perhaps one needs some indicator of order depth that is less sensitive to truncation? E.g., weighted total sum of order size (BTC), where the weight decays exponentially with the difference between order price and current price?But the bid/ask sums may not be that meaningless, their scope is just limited to the provided range of orders.
Eventually, accuracy of this metric depends on the distribution of orders in the book.
With such a formula, one could compute relatively tight upper and lower bounds for the indicator, even from a truncated order book.
Its a good idea and one that I've thought of before, its not something I have the time or maybe even the skills for but Im sure there are people who could do this, in fact Im sure some probably already have.
Interesting idea, I'll try to look around to see if something like that already exists ; could be a good addition for Coinorama
April 12, 2014, 09:49:47 AM
hm bulltrap on huobi?
The whole month is just a fat bull trap
Please stop quoting the trolls, thanks!
April 12, 2014, 09:43:48 AM
hm bulltrap on huobi?
The whole month is just a fat bull trap
April 12, 2014, 09:41:46 AM
So, since you have popped in, how long til we get a head of steam up again and this all calms down (to enable a base for a decent rise)?
I note and agree with your points about exchange confidence keeping money off the exchanges in any depth, but greed will surely conquer wariness at some point.
I would welcome your thoughts on timescale back to a decent bull market - a month, three... longer?
I note and agree with your points about exchange confidence keeping money off the exchanges in any depth, but greed will surely conquer wariness at some point.
I would welcome your thoughts on timescale back to a decent bull market - a month, three... longer?
In my baseline scenario, we close April at above 500, and 1000 will be breached in July.
Then there is the slower scenario but I am quite hopeful that 2014 will be a year of a new ATH nevertheless.
As everyone (including me) expect a 2-3 month plateau, perhaps that is not what will happen
Yes, I think the fast bounce back was extremely positive over Thursday night - for me it showed there is buying to defend the price a fair bit over 300. This makes the room on the downside look far smaller and is therefore reassuring. I know you were buying, as was I (but not on the same scale).
I don't know if it will turn before the end of the month, either - but I do agree it should before autumn. I hope you are right.
April 12, 2014, 09:30:40 AM
hm bulltrap on huobi?
Jump to: