Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 28258. (Read 26707054 times)
April 11, 2014, 02:56:27 PM
Shit, just bought 900 LTC on market by mistake
April 11, 2014, 02:51:39 PM
320 $ here we come again!=))
April 11, 2014, 02:45:30 PM
The demographic curve and its correlation to p/e ratios is however both informative and easy to provenance.
Do you have any recommended reading on the bold point, or comments on appropriate blogs I'm interested.
http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2011/august/boomer-retirement-us-equity-markets/el2011-26.pdf
Also, essential reading for anyone with an interest in capital markets: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/weeklyMarketComment.html
The Hussman stuff on QE is pretty damning - a good read - will go look through some of those postings over the weekend.
Thanks for the tip and btw... I always read your well-crafted posts. I don't always agree, but I do admire the tight and concise composition, plus I occasionally learn something too.
April 11, 2014, 02:39:32 PM
if i remember the december china crash correctly, the reversal wasnt based on some "positive news that puts an end to the china fud", its just kinda happened.
AFAIK the reversal from ~Dec/19 to ~Jan/6 has an obvious explantion: Huobi concluded that they could still operate via bank accounts instead of the big 3rd party processor (Alibaba?), and their clients gradually migrated to that medium. In fact their volume increased after Dec/16, perhaps because OKCoin and BTC-China clients moved in. OKCoin's volume dropped by 90% after Dec/19, but apparently they "fixed" their CNY channels around Jan/2 and recovered to some extent.
BTC-China's volume crashed much harder after Dec/19. They did not want to (or were uanble to) use banks,and tried some voucher-based system instead. As a result, their volume never recovered from the post-crash lows.
The survival of the exchanges restored some of the demand for BTC in China, even it now it was mostly for speculative trading; and increased demand (and availability of money) pushed the price up again, in a slow raly that endedaround Jan/02.
Anyway, to me it is obvious that the Western exchanges are NOT reacting to Chinese FUD or news. It is the CHINESE traders who react to them; and, since October, the Western markets are just dragged along, like four poodles tied to seven huskies. Western traders should not care about PBoC decrees, just as the Chinese don't care about SecondMarket or the US tax rules.
Indeed it is hard to tell what the Western market would do if it was not tied to the Chinese one. At some times when the Chinese volume was lowest, I think I saw signs that the Western exchanges wanted UP. However, I have not verified that systematically. It may be that, without China, the Western exchanges would just stay put, with buys and asks just staring at each other from opposite sides of a wide spread.
April 11, 2014, 02:30:19 PM
Must confess I wish I bought and kept some coins from yesterday 
So you really didn't buy last night, Seleme...?
I know you said you were sitting out til it looked like a definite upswing, but coins at sub 350 was very cheap.
I was buying from as soon as went under 380 all the way down - I admit, I was looking at the screen through my fingers a little, like some kid watching a horror film - but you didn't buy any under 400...?
Trading the alts instead?
April 11, 2014, 02:30:16 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqNEdDaFLCM
collegehumor must have a huge hard-on for bitcoin
what is this? forth video about it?
collegehumor must have a huge hard-on for bitcoin
what is this? forth video about it?
April 11, 2014, 02:21:53 PM
The demographic curve and its correlation to p/e ratios is however both informative and easy to provenance.
Do you have any recommended reading on the bold point, or comments on appropriate blogs I'm interested.
http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2011/august/boomer-retirement-us-equity-markets/el2011-26.pdf
Also, essential reading for anyone with an interest in capital markets: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/weeklyMarketComment.html
April 11, 2014, 02:17:07 PM
The demographic curve and its correlation to p/e ratios is however both informative and easy to provenance.
Do you have any recommended reading on the bold point, or comments on appropriate blogs I'm interested.
http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2011/august/boomer-retirement-us-equity-markets/el2011-26.pdf
April 11, 2014, 02:13:48 PM
420 being tested again on Stamp... when will it end?!
I don't think we are in a hurry back to 340$.
April 11, 2014, 02:09:43 PM
420 being tested again on Stamp... when will it end?!
April 11, 2014, 02:02:14 PM
The demographic curve and its correlation to p/e ratios is however both informative and easy to provenance.
Do you have any recommended reading on the bold point, or comments on appropriate blogs I'm interested.
http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2011/august/boomer-retirement-us-equity-markets/el2011-26.pdf
April 11, 2014, 02:01:06 PM
There are several factors why people do not daytrade :
1) They feel safer to have their coins in the coldstorage and not on the exchange - nothing wrong with that
2) They understand that trading is a serious deal, that you cant just jump in right into it and make money - nothing wrong with that
3) They have other job and its more profitable/comfortable for them to just focus on their job and buy more coins when the price is right - nothing wrong with that
4) They feel that in the best case trading is a zero sum game in which they have no edge and worst case pure gambling (with a preference for the latter theory)
5) You have to pay taxes the first time you sell. 25% in US if you held BTC under 1 year. 15% for more then a year. This assume you have net capital gain of course. Otherwise day trading is less of a problem.
Yeah yeah yeah taxes maxes plaxes laxes daxes faxes
April 11, 2014, 02:00:25 PM
April 11, 2014, 01:54:00 PM
I am so happy to see what I see !! (price rise)
I hope this is a moment when Bitcoin train will be back on tracks
to ride all over the world again and grab many new followers!
I hope this is a moment when Bitcoin train will be back on tracks
to ride all over the world again and grab many new followers!
April 11, 2014, 01:41:57 PM
Long term investment is a sensible choice, if the odds are favorable. For company stocks, it is even the "right" strategy.
This summer will be the first glimpse of reality peeping into the fed-induced bubble of unreality we have enjoyed for 5 years, but just a foreshadowing really.
Do you have any recommended reading on the bold point, or comments on appropriate blogs I'm interested.
April 11, 2014, 01:39:27 PM
Must confess I wish I bought and kept some coins from yesterday
I own a time machine and I will take you back to one time frame. 24 hours it is.....Although, you could have gone back to feb 11 2009
Better yet, go back to 2008, try to get in touch with Satoshi (all the while being ready to start mining the shit out of bitcoin as soon it is released), only to realize after some unsuccesfull attempts.... YOU are Satoshi !
You know, the funny thing is that if people could time travel, I am sure we would all copy the code and go back to like 2008 or 2007 or something and just become satoshi
Nah I wouldn't wanna be him just look at what happened to Dorian on the inkling that he was Satoshi. Much rather be someone like Hal who was just there very early. Just as wealthy without the world looking for you.
April 11, 2014, 01:36:59 PM
To Aminorex:
I'm supposed to have you on ignore, but you're posts are in the top 1%.
Question: Why do you hang out with the prols?
I'm supposed to have you on ignore, but you're posts are in the top 1%.
Question: Why do you hang out with the prols?
How can you tell if someone's posts are in the top 1%?
April 11, 2014, 01:36:39 PM
Must confess I wish I bought and kept some coins from yesterday
I own a time machine and I will take you back to one time frame. 24 hours it is.....Although, you could have gone back to feb 11 2009
Better yet, go back to 2008, try to get in touch with Satoshi (all the while being ready to start mining the shit out of bitcoin as soon it is released), only to realize after some unsuccesfull attempts.... YOU are Satoshi !
You know, the funny thing is that if people could time travel, I am sure we would all copy the code and go back to like 2008 or 2007 or something and just become satoshi
April 11, 2014, 01:35:37 PM
Anything worth doing is worth doing well. Some things are not worth doing.
There are many kinds of trades. A free exchange based on mutual information is almost always pure win. The more of these that occur, the more efficient and productive the economy. Some trades are based on taking advantage of differential information, and are a positive boon systemically, although they are not win-win. They are win-lose. An evolutionary process weeds out the losers, but they are constantly churning, so this process will never completely end, and is unavoidable. It is bound up with the necessary process of price discovery. No problem there. Performing deceptive tortious or outright criminal acts to induce losers in order to gain thereby is just evil, seeking to harm others in order to benefit thereby. It is morally indiscernible from any other larceny or fraud, and harms the efficiency of the market, and harms the productivity of the economy. It is a defection and a despoilment of the commons. I would that some batman go from house to house giving neckties to sociopaths like these. Not my job, however, and thankfully. On this forum I rub shoulders with these parasites.
There are many kinds of trades. A free exchange based on mutual information is almost always pure win. The more of these that occur, the more efficient and productive the economy. Some trades are based on taking advantage of differential information, and are a positive boon systemically, although they are not win-win. They are win-lose. An evolutionary process weeds out the losers, but they are constantly churning, so this process will never completely end, and is unavoidable. It is bound up with the necessary process of price discovery. No problem there. Performing deceptive tortious or outright criminal acts to induce losers in order to gain thereby is just evil, seeking to harm others in order to benefit thereby. It is morally indiscernible from any other larceny or fraud, and harms the efficiency of the market, and harms the productivity of the economy. It is a defection and a despoilment of the commons. I would that some batman go from house to house giving neckties to sociopaths like these. Not my job, however, and thankfully. On this forum I rub shoulders with these parasites.
Good, thought-provoking perspective!
Thanks for that.
April 11, 2014, 01:34:46 PM
Long term investment is a sensible choice, if the odds are favorable. For company stocks, it is even the "right" strategy.
This summer will be the first glimpse of reality peeping into the fed-induced bubble of unreality we have enjoyed for 5 years, but just a foreshadowing really.
You may be correct to the extent that you are suggesting that they cannot drag out until November, b/c depending upon your vehicle, it is still possible to make decent progress on a cow trail. Surely, there are a lot of balls in the air, and we are NOT always able to foresee various tricks up the sleeves. Many mixed metaphors, here... sorry about that.
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